This season, I’m doing things different with my public college basketball predictions.
Usually, the public predictions page at The Power Rank has predictions based on team rankings, which take margin of victory in games and adjusts for strength of schedule.
If you check out this page in the fall, you get these points based predictions for college football and the NFL.
For college basketball, I’m offering a sample of predictions usually saved for members of The Power Rank. These predictions take the points based predictions and add components based on the markets and preseason expectations. This ensemble approach almost certainly leads to more accurate predictions.
On the public part of my site, you will find a prediction for any game with a top 30 team by my numbers, as well as a random sample of other games.
For example, here are some predictions for Tuesday, February 12th.
Michigan will beat Penn State by 5.3 points on the road.
Michigan has become a defensive juggernaut this season, as they rank 2nd when I take points per possession and adjust for schedule.
Maryland will beat Purdue by 0.1 points at home.
Purdue has won 8 straight games. But don’t count out Maryland, a talented team that ranks in the top 25 by both my points and market based metrics.
Duke will beat Louisville by 6.1 points at home.
Duke has shot 32% from three this season, but they almost doubled this rate (13 of 21) in beating Virginia Saturday night. They won’t shoot that well every game, but they should be the tourney favorite because of their future NBA talent.
To check out all of today’s predictions, click here.
Fresh predictions get posted every morning, so check out that link even if you’re reading this later.