Based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, here are my odds to win the divisions of the Big Ten.
Big Ten East
1. Michigan 77.8%
2. Ohio State 21.3%
3. Michigan State 0.7%
Ohio State has struggled this season, especially on defense. They are a 3.5 point favorite at Michigan State. If Ohio State loses, it all but clinches the division for Michigan.
Big Ten West
1. Northwestern 77.0%
2. Wisconsin 10.1%
3. Purdue 9.8%
4. Iowa 3.1%
Purdue’s win over Iowa this past weekend essentially ended the chance that Iowa wins the West.
Northwestern’s odds jumped from 58.3% last week to the current 77.0% because of Iowa’s loss to Purdue. Northwestern is a 10 point underdog at Iowa, but they are also 2 games ahead of Iowa.
Northwestern already has wins over Wisconsin and Purdue, which gives them a head to head tie breaker over both of these teams.