Let’s define success for a football play based on the following necessary yardage.
- 50% of yards on 1st down
- 70% of yards on 2nd down
- all yards on 3rd and 4th down
This definition has been used by Football Outsiders and Bill Connelly, and it puts some context on plays. 2 yards means something different on 3rd and 1 than 1st and 10.
Success rate is the percentage of successful plays.
In addition, Bill Connelly has shown that success rate tends to persist from early to late season in college football. I suspect the same holds in the NFL, and the hope is that success rate gets to the truth about teams even faster than yards per play.
The following gives success rate for offense and defense in the NFL. Schedule adjustments are made by a least squares algorithm, which some refer to as the Simple Rating System.
The number after each team gives an expected success rate against an average opposing unit.
Offense
1. Los Angeles Rams, 0.54
2. New Orleans, 0.51
3. Kansas City, 0.50
4. Oakland, 0.49
5. Los Angeles Chargers, 0.48
6. Chicago, 0.48
7. Detroit, 0.48
8. New England, 0.47
9. Indianapolis, 0.46
10. Carolina, 0.46
11. Denver, 0.45
12. Cincinnati, 0.45
13. Tampa Bay, 0.44
14. Pittsburgh, 0.43
15. Atlanta, 0.43
16. Baltimore, 0.43
17. Minnesota, 0.43
18. San Francisco, 0.43
19. Green Bay, 0.42
20. Jacksonville, 0.42
21. Miami, 0.42
22. Houston, 0.42
23. Philadelphia, 0.41
24. Tennessee, 0.41
25. Washington, 0.41
26. Seattle, 0.40
27. Dallas, 0.40
28. New York Giants, 0.40
29. New York Jets, 0.35
30. Arizona, 0.35
31. Cleveland, 0.34
32. Buffalo, 0.32
Yes, Oakland’s tanking offense is 4th in the NFL. Maybe this is small sample size issue.
Defense
1. Baltimore, 0.38
2. Jacksonville, 0.38
3. Houston, 0.40
4. New England, 0.40
5. Los Angeles Rams, 0.41
6. Dallas, 0.41
7. San Francisco, 0.41
8. Green Bay, 0.42
9. Miami, 0.42
10. Philadelphia, 0.42
11. Seattle, 0.42
12. Pittsburgh, 0.42
13. New York Giants, 0.42
14. Cleveland, 0.42
15. Denver, 0.42
16. Buffalo, 0.42
17. Oakland, 0.42
18. New York Jets, 0.43
19. Arizona, 0.43
20. Tennessee, 0.43
21. Chicago, 0.43
22. Carolina, 0.44
23. Washington, 0.45
24. Cincinnati, 0.45
25. Los Angeles Chargers, 0.45
26. Minnesota, 0.45
27. Atlanta, 0.47
28. Kansas City, 0.47
29. New Orleans, 0.48
30. Detroit, 0.48
31. Indianapolis, 0.48
32. Tampa Bay, 0.49
Minnesota’s defense has struggle this season, ranking 26th by this adjusted success rate.
Thoughts? Please leave a comment below. I’m new to this metric, and I need to learn all that I can.
Miami defense is bad
A stop on 3rd down in the first quarter is not the same as the fourth quarter. Same as a big play for a winning drive.
Success rate is not a perfect metric, and I hope to implement some ideas to make it better. Thanks for the note.
A defensive stop or an offensive play means more in the fourth quarter when the games on the line than the first quarter. Those averages mean nothing if a defense can’t make stop late or the offense can’t drive late.