To evaluate offense and defense in college football, I look beyond points per game, which can be affected by tempo and turnovers. You can get more insight by looking at an efficiency metric like yards per play.
Based on an algorithm I developed, I make schedule adjustments to yards per play to rank college football offense and defense. Below, I show the results for the Big Ten after 7 weeks of the 2018 season.
The format below gives rank, team, and rating, or an expected yards per play against an average FBS opponent.
This data comes from a small sample size of 7 games at most. These results are noisy, as you would never say too much about a basketball or baseball team after a similar number of games.
Offense
4. Wisconsin, 6.99
6. Purdue, 6.86
8. Ohio State, 6.82
15. Penn State, 6.54
22. Michigan, 6.35
33. Nebraska, 5.98
36. Maryland, 5.93
38. Iowa, 5.92
62. Michigan State, 5.60
71. Illinois, 5.50
76. Northwestern, 5.35
81. Indiana, 5.29
96. Minnesota, 5.12
128. Rutgers, 3.96
Wisconsin jumped to the top of the Big Ten with a respectable 5.78 yards per play against Michigan’s top ranked defense.
Defense
1. Michigan, 3.87
15. Penn State, 4.51
19. Iowa, 4.65
29. Michigan State, 4.92
37. Maryland, 5.13
41. Minnesota, 5.26
42. Nebraska, 5.26
60. Northwestern, 5.39
73. Indiana, 5.57
80. Purdue, 5.70
91. Ohio State, 5.89
97. Wisconsin, 6.12
106. Rutgers, 6.39
116. Illinois, 6.72
Ohio State has struggled this season, as they most recently allowed 7.07 yards per play to weak a Minnesota offense.
I broke down Ohio State’s defense in this week’s podcast The Football Analytics Show.
Become a member of The Power Rank
Members get access to adjusted yards per play numbers for all college football teams. It also includes spread predictions for all college football and NFL games.
To learn more, click here.
Leave a Reply