These college football rankings take four weeks of data and adjust margin of victory for strength of schedule. The rating gives a predicted margin of victory against an average FBS team.
As these numbers only consider 4 games at most for any team, the results show clear noise. Appalachian State is not the 3rd best team in the nation, even if they played Penn State tough in their opener.
Also, Eastern Michigan is ranked ahead of Michigan despite a 2-2 record. They’re getting credit for staying close with Buffalo (13th, another small sample size disaster) and San Diego State (39th), but Eastern Michigan is not a top 25 team.
I post these noisy rankings to show why I keep weight on preseason rankings in both the public points based rankings and the more accurate member rankings.
With only data from this year, you get some non-sensical predictions. To get a prediction, subtract the rating of two teams and add 3 points for the home team.
For example, Penn State would be a 21 point favorite at home over Ohio State. That doesn’t pass the stupid test.
As another example, Colorado would be a 10 point favorite at home over UCLA.
1. Alabama, (4-0), 46.20
2. Penn State, (4-0), 41.10
3. Appalachian State, (2-1), 36.79
4. Georgia, (4-0), 36.15
5. Clemson, (4-0), 30.68
6. Texas A&M, (2-2), 26.49
7. Duke, (4-0), 25.24
8. Ohio State, (4-0), 22.79
9. Stanford, (4-0), 19.73
10. LSU, (4-0), 18.24
11. Oklahoma, (4-0), 18.08
12. Missouri, (3-1), 17.76
13. Buffalo, (4-0), 17.11
14. Michigan State, (2-1), 16.34
15. North Texas, (4-0), 16.19
16. Auburn, (3-1), 15.46
17. Washington, (3-1), 15.29
18. Kentucky, (4-0), 15.11
19. Wisconsin, (3-1), 14.90
20. South Carolina, (2-1), 13.06
21. Texas, (3-1), 12.99
22. Virginia, (3-1), 12.57
23. Brigham Young, (3-1), 11.85
24. Arizona State, (2-2), 11.84
25. Eastern Michigan, (2-2), 11.76
26. California, (3-0), 11.42
27. Notre Dame, (4-0), 11.38
28. Washington State, (3-1), 11.02
29. Utah State, (3-1), 10.74
30. Temple, (2-2), 10.70
31. Michigan, (3-1), 10.37
32. Army, (2-2), 10.07
33. West Virginia, (3-0), 9.89
34. UCF, (3-0), 9.66
35. North Carolina State, (3-0), 9.23
36. Baylor, (3-1), 9.19
37. South Florida, (4-0), 9.01
38. Purdue, (1-3), 8.94
39. San Diego State, (3-1), 8.78
40. Indiana, (3-1), 8.69
41. Iowa, (3-1), 8.43
42. Akron, (2-1), 8.15
43. Iowa State, (1-2), 8.07
44. Northwestern, (1-2), 7.83
45. Oregon, (3-1), 7.24
46. Mississippi, (3-1), 6.99
47. Maryland, (3-1), 6.81
48. Miami (FL), (3-1), 6.77
49. TCU, (2-2), 6.33
50. USC, (2-2), 6.23
51. Texas Tech, (3-1), 5.46
52. East Carolina, (1-2), 4.98
53. Louisville, (2-2), 4.89
54. Florida, (3-1), 4.83
55. Vanderbilt, (2-2), 3.40
56. Houston, (3-1), 3.32
57. Boston College, (3-1), 3.26
58. Arkansas State, (3-1), 2.92
59. Georgia Southern, (2-1), 2.67
60. Hawaii, (4-1), 2.04
61. Syracuse, (4-0), 1.64
62. Louisiana Tech, (2-1), 1.61
63. Tulsa, (1-3), 1.34
64. Fresno State, (2-1), 1.21
65. Mississippi State, (3-1), 0.79
66. Wake Forest, (2-2), 0.41
67. Air Force, (1-2), 0.39
68. Utah, (2-1), 0.24
69. Illinois, (2-2), -0.31
70. Cincinnati, (4-0), -0.35
71. Georgia Tech, (1-3), -0.72
72. North Carolina, (1-2), -0.93
73. Memphis, (3-1), -0.95
74. Kansas, (2-2), -1.68
75. Ohio, (1-2), -2.08
76. Florida International, (2-2), -2.38
77. Pittsburgh, (2-2), -2.46
78. Oklahoma State, (3-1), -2.51
79. Western Kentucky, (1-3), -3.35
80. Arizona, (2-2), -4.00
81. Minnesota, (3-1), -4.05
82. Ball State, (1-3), -4.74
83. Central Michigan, (1-3), -5.27
84. UNLV, (2-2), -5.27
85. Colorado, (3-0), -5.56
86. Kent State, (1-3), -5.81
87. Middle Tennessee, (1-2), -6.97
88. Navy, (2-2), -7.36
89. Florida Atlantic, (2-2), -7.88
90. San Jose State, (0-3), -8.83
91. Wyoming, (2-2), -9.39
92. Charlotte, (2-2), -9.50
93. Boise State, (2-1), -9.73
94. Southern Miss, (2-1), -10.09
95. Tulane, (1-3), -10.14
96. Marshall, (2-1), -10.66
97. SMU, (1-3), -10.76
98. New Mexico, (2-1), -10.95
99. Louisiana Monroe, (2-2), -11.73
100. Liberty, (1-2), -12.15
101. Virginia Tech, (2-1), -12.21
102. UCLA, (0-3), -12.87
103. Northern Illinois, (1-3), -13.00
104. Coastal Carolina, (3-1), -13.05
105. Old Dominion, (1-3), -13.87
106. Arkansas, (1-3), -13.93
107. Massachusetts, (2-3), -14.58
108. South Alabama, (1-3), -15.40
109. Western Michigan, (2-2), -16.08
110. Rice, (1-3), -16.12
111. Florida State, (2-2), -16.38
112. Troy, (3-1), -16.47
113. Kansas State, (2-2), -16.76
114. Toledo, (2-1), -17.10
115. UAB, (2-1), -17.72
116. Tennessee, (2-2), -18.04
117. Colorado State, (1-4), -18.63
118. Rutgers, (1-3), -20.67
119. UTSA, (1-3), -21.21
120. Miami (OH), (1-3), -21.22
121. Nebraska, (0-3), -21.91
122. Oregon State, (1-3), -22.78
123. Nevada, (2-2), -25.40
124. Bowling Green, (1-3), -26.30
125. Georgia State, (1-3), -26.62
126. Louisiana, (1-2), -26.74
127. Connecticut, (1-3), -27.03
128. Texas State, (1-3), -28.29
129. New Mexico State, (1-4), -33.52
130. UTEP, (0-4), -38.57
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