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NFL early season adjustments based on the markets

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

It’s tough to determine the strength of your NFL team after only two weeks. How should you adjust those preseason expectations?

With only two weeks of data, I can’t apply my ranking algorithms that adjusts for strength of schedule. But we would still like to consider schedule in these early season adjustments. It must mean something that New Orleans could only squeak by Cleveland this past week.

The closing point spreads in the markets consider schedule. The numbers below give the average points by which a team has covered the first two weeks.  It compares the game result with the median closing line from Don Best.

Positive numbers imply a team has exceeded the market expectation on average. The record in parentheses is straight up game winners, not against the spread.

1. Los Angeles Rams, (2-0), 17.50
2. Tampa Bay, (2-0), 13.50
3. New York Jets, (1-1), 13.50
4. Baltimore, (1-1), 12.75
5. Kansas City, (2-0), 11.25
6. Cincinnati, (2-0), 11.00
7. Miami, (2-0), 9.00
8. Jacksonville, (2-0), 7.50
9. Cleveland, (0-1-1), 5.00
10. Chicago, (1-1), 4.00
11. Indianapolis, (1-1), 3.50
12. Carolina, (1-1), 1.75
13. Washington, (1-1), 1.00
14. Minnesota, (1-0-1), 0.00
15. Tennessee, (1-1), -0.25
16. Dallas, (1-1), -0.50
17. Seattle, (0-2), -1.00
18. Philadelphia, (1-1), -1.50
19. Atlanta, (1-1), -2.25
20. San Francisco, (1-1), -2.25
21. Green Bay, (1-0-1), -2.25
22. Denver, (2-0), -2.50
23. New York Giants, (0-2), -3.00
24. Houston, (0-2), -3.50
25. Oakland, (0-2), -4.25
26. Los Angeles Chargers, (1-1), -5.00
27. New England, (1-1), -6.25
28. Pittsburgh, (0-1-1), -6.25
29. New Orleans, (1-1), -12.25
30. Detroit, (0-2), -17.50
31. Buffalo, (0-2), -20.00
32. Arizona, (0-2), -20.75

These numbers are a key element in my early predictions for members, who have access to all of my best predictions.  To learn more, click here.

Filed Under: National Football League

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