THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • College Basketball
    • NFL
    • College Football
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
    • CFB yards per play
    • World Soccer/Football
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
    • COVID-19 Policy
  • Log in

NFL early season adjustments based on the markets

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

It’s tough to determine the strength of your NFL team after only two weeks. How should you adjust those preseason expectations?

With only two weeks of data, I can’t apply my ranking algorithms that adjusts for strength of schedule. But we would still like to consider schedule in these early season adjustments. It must mean something that New Orleans could only squeak by Cleveland this past week.

The closing point spreads in the markets consider schedule. The numbers below give the average points by which a team has covered the first two weeks.  It compares the game result with the median closing line from Don Best.

Positive numbers imply a team has exceeded the market expectation on average. The record in parentheses is straight up game winners, not against the spread.

1. Los Angeles Rams, (2-0), 17.50
2. Tampa Bay, (2-0), 13.50
3. New York Jets, (1-1), 13.50
4. Baltimore, (1-1), 12.75
5. Kansas City, (2-0), 11.25
6. Cincinnati, (2-0), 11.00
7. Miami, (2-0), 9.00
8. Jacksonville, (2-0), 7.50
9. Cleveland, (0-1-1), 5.00
10. Chicago, (1-1), 4.00
11. Indianapolis, (1-1), 3.50
12. Carolina, (1-1), 1.75
13. Washington, (1-1), 1.00
14. Minnesota, (1-0-1), 0.00
15. Tennessee, (1-1), -0.25
16. Dallas, (1-1), -0.50
17. Seattle, (0-2), -1.00
18. Philadelphia, (1-1), -1.50
19. Atlanta, (1-1), -2.25
20. San Francisco, (1-1), -2.25
21. Green Bay, (1-0-1), -2.25
22. Denver, (2-0), -2.50
23. New York Giants, (0-2), -3.00
24. Houston, (0-2), -3.50
25. Oakland, (0-2), -4.25
26. Los Angeles Chargers, (1-1), -5.00
27. New England, (1-1), -6.25
28. Pittsburgh, (0-1-1), -6.25
29. New Orleans, (1-1), -12.25
30. Detroit, (0-2), -17.50
31. Buffalo, (0-2), -20.00
32. Arizona, (0-2), -20.75

These numbers are a key element in my early predictions for members, who have access to all of my best predictions.  To learn more, click here.

Filed Under: National Football League

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Predictions from Ed Feng

I use my Stanford Ph.D. in applied math to make football and March Madness predictions.

To get a sample of my best American football predictions and March Madness cheat sheet, sign up for my free email newsletter.

Enter your email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches

Recent Articles

  • Podcast: Julian Packer on modeling and betting props
  • Podcast: Colin Davy on analytics for The Masters and Jeopardy
  • Podcast: Jordan Sperber on College Basketball Analytics and Strategy
  • Member: Final Four analysis
  • Members: Sweet Sixteen analysis for March 27-28, 2021

© 2021 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Get a sample of my best football predictions

While I usually save my best predictions for paying members of the site, I offer a sample in my weekly email newsletter.


To get this service, sign up for my free email newsletter.


Enter your email and click on "Sign up now!"

No thanks, I'll make predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • College Basketball
    • NFL
    • College Football
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
    • CFB yards per play
    • World Soccer/Football
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
    • COVID-19 Policy