THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

College football win totals for 2018

By Dr. Ed Feng 2 Comments

With the college football season only weeks away, you’d like to know how many games your team will win.

Analytics can help, as team performance tends to persist from year to year in college football.  This makes it possible to use linear regression to predict the 2018 season.

My preseason model considers team performance, turnovers and returning starters.  To check out the rankings, click here.

These rankings gives a predicted point spread in each game, which accounts for home field.  This point spread implies a win probability for each team.  The sum of these win probabilities give the win totals below.

The remainder of this articles gives college football win totals for 130 FBS teams.  The first number gives a team’s rank in the preseason rankings.  The rating gives an expected margin of victory against an average FBS team (neutral site).

Southeastern

2: Alabama, 19.4 rating, 10.0 wins.
4: Georgia, 18.2 rating, 10.1 wins.
5: Auburn, 17.6 rating, 9.0 wins.
10: Mississippi State, 14.3 rating, 8.6 wins.
21: Texas A&M, 9.0 rating, 6.9 wins.
26: LSU, 7.9 rating, 6.3 wins.
34: Mississippi, 6.9 rating, 6.7 wins.
36: Florida, 6.8 rating, 7.4 wins.
45: South Carolina, 5.2 rating, 6.6 wins.
47: Missouri, 4.6 rating, 6.4 wins.
50: Arkansas, 3.9 rating, 6.2 wins.
59: Kentucky, 1.2 rating, 5.6 wins.
71: Tennessee, -1.9 rating, 5.2 wins.
84: Vanderbilt, -4.0 rating, 4.4 wins.

Big Ten

6: Ohio State, 17.4 rating, 9.6 wins.
8: Wisconsin, 16.0 rating, 9.5 wins.
11: Michigan State, 13.9 rating, 8.9 wins.
12: Michigan, 13.4 rating, 8.0 wins.
15: Penn State, 12.3 rating, 8.3 wins.
19: Iowa, 9.9 rating, 8.1 wins.
32: Northwestern, 7.2 rating, 6.5 wins.
48: Purdue, 4.3 rating, 5.8 wins.
49: Nebraska, 4.0 rating, 5.8 wins.
58: Minnesota, 1.7 rating, 5.9 wins.
68: Maryland, -1.0 rating, 4.7 wins.
74: Indiana, -2.1 rating, 4.6 wins.
83: Rutgers, -3.9 rating, 4.3 wins.
90: Illinois, -5.2 rating, 4.0 wins.

Big 12

3: Oklahoma, 18.6 rating, 9.8 wins.
14: TCU, 12.9 rating, 8.1 wins.
18: Oklahoma State, 10.1 rating, 7.6 wins.
23: Texas, 8.8 rating, 6.9 wins.
28: Iowa State, 7.6 rating, 6.5 wins.
31: Kansas State, 7.3 rating, 6.5 wins.
38: Baylor, 6.7 rating, 6.5 wins.
39: Texas Tech, 6.5 rating, 6.3 wins.
43: West Virginia, 6.1 rating, 6.1 wins.
93: Kansas, -5.5 rating, 3.2 wins.

Atlantic Coast

1: Clemson, 21.6 rating, 10.4 wins.
17: Miami (FL), 10.4 rating, 8.2 wins.
22: Florida State, 8.9 rating, 6.8 wins.
24: Virginia Tech, 8.8 rating, 7.8 wins.
25: Georgia Tech, 8.3 rating, 6.8 wins.
27: Duke, 7.8 rating, 6.8 wins.
33: Louisville, 6.9 rating, 6.9 wins.
37: Boston College, 6.8 rating, 6.8 wins.
41: Wake Forest, 6.2 rating, 6.6 wins.
46: Pittsburgh, 4.6 rating, 5.5 wins.
51: North Carolina State, 3.3 rating, 6.1 wins.
56: Syracuse, 2.2 rating, 5.7 wins.
63: North Carolina, 0.7 rating, 5.1 wins.
65: Virginia, 0.5 rating, 5.6 wins.

Pac-12

9: Washington, 14.8 rating, 9.1 wins.
13: Stanford, 13.3 rating, 8.4 wins.
20: USC, 9.5 rating, 7.6 wins.
35: Utah, 6.9 rating, 7.1 wins.
40: California, 6.3 rating, 7.3 wins.
42: Oregon, 6.1 rating, 7.5 wins.
44: Arizona, 5.7 rating, 7.6 wins.
53: UCLA, 2.6 rating, 5.1 wins.
54: Arizona State, 2.6 rating, 5.5 wins.
55: Washington State, 2.4 rating, 6.2 wins.
89: Colorado, -5.2 rating, 4.0 wins.
101: Oregon State, -7.5 rating, 3.0 wins.

Independents

7: Notre Dame, 16.3 rating, 9.2 wins.
82: Army, -3.9 rating, 7.2 wins.
85: Brigham Young, -4.2 rating, 4.9 wins.
99: Massachusetts, -6.5 rating, 6.2 wins.
105: New Mexico State, -9.5 rating, 6.2 wins.
121: Liberty, -14.7 rating, 4.2 wins.

American Athletic Conference

16: UCF, 10.8 rating, 9.7 wins.
29: Memphis, 7.5 rating, 9.2 wins.
57: South Florida, 2.2 rating, 7.7 wins.
61: Houston, 1.1 rating, 7.2 wins.
62: Navy, 0.9 rating, 7.5 wins.
75: Temple, -2.2 rating, 6.2 wins.
78: SMU, -2.8 rating, 5.5 wins.
81: Tulsa, -3.8 rating, 5.3 wins.
91: Tulane, -5.3 rating, 4.9 wins.
100: Cincinnati, -6.5 rating, 5.3 wins.
107: East Carolina, -10.0 rating, 4.1 wins.
119: Connecticut, -13.5 rating, 3.0 wins.

Mountain West

30: Boise State, 7.3 rating, 9.2 wins.
64: San Diego State, 0.5 rating, 7.8 wins.
66: Fresno State, -0.0 rating, 7.4 wins.
72: Utah State, -2.0 rating, 7.3 wins.
77: Wyoming, -2.4 rating, 6.7 wins.
88: Colorado State, -4.7 rating, 6.1 wins.
92: Air Force, -5.3 rating, 5.5 wins.
104: Nevada, -8.8 rating, 5.2 wins.
108: UNLV, -10.0 rating, 5.6 wins.
110: New Mexico, -10.5 rating, 4.3 wins.
122: San Jose State, -15.1 rating, 3.4 wins.
125: Hawaii, -16.0 rating, 4.0 wins.

Mid-American

67: Toledo, -0.6 rating, 8.2 wins.
76: Northern Illinois, -2.2 rating, 6.2 wins.
79: Ohio, -3.2 rating, 7.7 wins.
86: Western Michigan, -4.4 rating, 6.8 wins.
94: Buffalo, -5.7 rating, 6.8 wins.
98: Miami (OH), -6.4 rating, 6.0 wins.
102: Eastern Michigan, -7.9 rating, 5.8 wins.
103: Central Michigan, -8.6 rating, 5.3 wins.
106: Akron, -9.7 rating, 4.9 wins.
115: Bowling Green, -12.2 rating, 4.1 wins.
127: Ball State, -16.8 rating, 3.4 wins.
129: Kent State, -19.8 rating, 2.6 wins.

Sun Belt

73: Appalachian State, -2.1 rating, 8.4 wins.
80: Troy, -3.6 rating, 7.5 wins.
87: Louisiana Monroe, -4.5 rating, 6.9 wins.
95: Arkansas State, -5.7 rating, 7.0 wins.
97: Georgia Southern, -6.0 rating, 6.7 wins.
109: South Alabama, -10.2 rating, 5.1 wins.
118: Coastal Carolina, -13.5 rating, 4.5 wins.
120: Georgia State, -13.8 rating, 3.8 wins.
124: Louisiana, -15.8 rating, 3.9 wins.
126: Texas State, -16.6 rating, 4.0 wins.

Conference USA

52: Marshall, 3.0 rating, 8.9 wins.
60: Florida Atlantic, 1.1 rating, 7.5 wins.
69: Louisiana Tech, -1.6 rating, 7.6 wins.
70: Middle Tennessee, -1.7 rating, 7.3 wins.
96: North Texas, -6.0 rating, 7.3 wins.
111: Southern Miss, -10.6 rating, 5.6 wins.
112: Western Kentucky, -10.7 rating, 4.9 wins.
113: UAB, -10.8 rating, 6.1 wins.
114: UTSA, -11.4 rating, 4.8 wins.
116: Florida International, -12.2 rating, 4.9 wins.
117: Old Dominion, -12.6 rating, 4.8 wins.
123: Charlotte, -15.6 rating, 3.8 wins.
128: Rice, -19.5 rating, 3.7 wins.
130: UTEP, -21.5 rating, 2.6 wins.

Filed Under: College Football, Uncategorized

Comments

  1. Andy Jaske says

    August 18, 2018 at 8:23 am

    Interesting totals, but the distribution appears compressed. How to “elongate” it slightly?

    Reply
  2. Paul says

    August 20, 2018 at 12:23 pm

    Marshall ahead of FAU jumps out as an interesting projection.

    Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • Podcast: The secret edge in Super Bowl LVII between Kansas City and Philadelphia
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, February 4, 2023
  • Podcast: Hitman on NFL betting, Super Bowl LVII
  • Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member