College football win totals for 2018

With the college football season only weeks away, you’d like to know how many games your team will win.

Analytics can help, as team performance tends to persist from year to year in college football.  This makes it possible to use linear regression to predict the 2018 season.

My preseason model considers team performance, turnovers and returning starters.  To check out the rankings, click here.

These rankings gives a predicted point spread in each game, which accounts for home field.  This point spread implies a win probability for each team.  The sum of these win probabilities give the win totals below.

The remainder of this articles gives college football win totals for 130 FBS teams.  The first number gives a team’s rank in the preseason rankings.  The rating gives an expected margin of victory against an average FBS team (neutral site).

Southeastern

2: Alabama, 19.4 rating, 10.0 wins.
4: Georgia, 18.2 rating, 10.1 wins.
5: Auburn, 17.6 rating, 9.0 wins.
10: Mississippi State, 14.3 rating, 8.6 wins.
21: Texas A&M, 9.0 rating, 6.9 wins.
26: LSU, 7.9 rating, 6.3 wins.
34: Mississippi, 6.9 rating, 6.7 wins.
36: Florida, 6.8 rating, 7.4 wins.
45: South Carolina, 5.2 rating, 6.6 wins.
47: Missouri, 4.6 rating, 6.4 wins.
50: Arkansas, 3.9 rating, 6.2 wins.
59: Kentucky, 1.2 rating, 5.6 wins.
71: Tennessee, -1.9 rating, 5.2 wins.
84: Vanderbilt, -4.0 rating, 4.4 wins.

Big Ten

6: Ohio State, 17.4 rating, 9.6 wins.
8: Wisconsin, 16.0 rating, 9.5 wins.
11: Michigan State, 13.9 rating, 8.9 wins.
12: Michigan, 13.4 rating, 8.0 wins.
15: Penn State, 12.3 rating, 8.3 wins.
19: Iowa, 9.9 rating, 8.1 wins.
32: Northwestern, 7.2 rating, 6.5 wins.
48: Purdue, 4.3 rating, 5.8 wins.
49: Nebraska, 4.0 rating, 5.8 wins.
58: Minnesota, 1.7 rating, 5.9 wins.
68: Maryland, -1.0 rating, 4.7 wins.
74: Indiana, -2.1 rating, 4.6 wins.
83: Rutgers, -3.9 rating, 4.3 wins.
90: Illinois, -5.2 rating, 4.0 wins.

Big 12

3: Oklahoma, 18.6 rating, 9.8 wins.
14: TCU, 12.9 rating, 8.1 wins.
18: Oklahoma State, 10.1 rating, 7.6 wins.
23: Texas, 8.8 rating, 6.9 wins.
28: Iowa State, 7.6 rating, 6.5 wins.
31: Kansas State, 7.3 rating, 6.5 wins.
38: Baylor, 6.7 rating, 6.5 wins.
39: Texas Tech, 6.5 rating, 6.3 wins.
43: West Virginia, 6.1 rating, 6.1 wins.
93: Kansas, -5.5 rating, 3.2 wins.

Atlantic Coast

1: Clemson, 21.6 rating, 10.4 wins.
17: Miami (FL), 10.4 rating, 8.2 wins.
22: Florida State, 8.9 rating, 6.8 wins.
24: Virginia Tech, 8.8 rating, 7.8 wins.
25: Georgia Tech, 8.3 rating, 6.8 wins.
27: Duke, 7.8 rating, 6.8 wins.
33: Louisville, 6.9 rating, 6.9 wins.
37: Boston College, 6.8 rating, 6.8 wins.
41: Wake Forest, 6.2 rating, 6.6 wins.
46: Pittsburgh, 4.6 rating, 5.5 wins.
51: North Carolina State, 3.3 rating, 6.1 wins.
56: Syracuse, 2.2 rating, 5.7 wins.
63: North Carolina, 0.7 rating, 5.1 wins.
65: Virginia, 0.5 rating, 5.6 wins.

Pac-12

9: Washington, 14.8 rating, 9.1 wins.
13: Stanford, 13.3 rating, 8.4 wins.
20: USC, 9.5 rating, 7.6 wins.
35: Utah, 6.9 rating, 7.1 wins.
40: California, 6.3 rating, 7.3 wins.
42: Oregon, 6.1 rating, 7.5 wins.
44: Arizona, 5.7 rating, 7.6 wins.
53: UCLA, 2.6 rating, 5.1 wins.
54: Arizona State, 2.6 rating, 5.5 wins.
55: Washington State, 2.4 rating, 6.2 wins.
89: Colorado, -5.2 rating, 4.0 wins.
101: Oregon State, -7.5 rating, 3.0 wins.

Independents

7: Notre Dame, 16.3 rating, 9.2 wins.
82: Army, -3.9 rating, 7.2 wins.
85: Brigham Young, -4.2 rating, 4.9 wins.
99: Massachusetts, -6.5 rating, 6.2 wins.
105: New Mexico State, -9.5 rating, 6.2 wins.
121: Liberty, -14.7 rating, 4.2 wins.

American Athletic Conference

16: UCF, 10.8 rating, 9.7 wins.
29: Memphis, 7.5 rating, 9.2 wins.
57: South Florida, 2.2 rating, 7.7 wins.
61: Houston, 1.1 rating, 7.2 wins.
62: Navy, 0.9 rating, 7.5 wins.
75: Temple, -2.2 rating, 6.2 wins.
78: SMU, -2.8 rating, 5.5 wins.
81: Tulsa, -3.8 rating, 5.3 wins.
91: Tulane, -5.3 rating, 4.9 wins.
100: Cincinnati, -6.5 rating, 5.3 wins.
107: East Carolina, -10.0 rating, 4.1 wins.
119: Connecticut, -13.5 rating, 3.0 wins.

Mountain West

30: Boise State, 7.3 rating, 9.2 wins.
64: San Diego State, 0.5 rating, 7.8 wins.
66: Fresno State, -0.0 rating, 7.4 wins.
72: Utah State, -2.0 rating, 7.3 wins.
77: Wyoming, -2.4 rating, 6.7 wins.
88: Colorado State, -4.7 rating, 6.1 wins.
92: Air Force, -5.3 rating, 5.5 wins.
104: Nevada, -8.8 rating, 5.2 wins.
108: UNLV, -10.0 rating, 5.6 wins.
110: New Mexico, -10.5 rating, 4.3 wins.
122: San Jose State, -15.1 rating, 3.4 wins.
125: Hawaii, -16.0 rating, 4.0 wins.

Mid-American

67: Toledo, -0.6 rating, 8.2 wins.
76: Northern Illinois, -2.2 rating, 6.2 wins.
79: Ohio, -3.2 rating, 7.7 wins.
86: Western Michigan, -4.4 rating, 6.8 wins.
94: Buffalo, -5.7 rating, 6.8 wins.
98: Miami (OH), -6.4 rating, 6.0 wins.
102: Eastern Michigan, -7.9 rating, 5.8 wins.
103: Central Michigan, -8.6 rating, 5.3 wins.
106: Akron, -9.7 rating, 4.9 wins.
115: Bowling Green, -12.2 rating, 4.1 wins.
127: Ball State, -16.8 rating, 3.4 wins.
129: Kent State, -19.8 rating, 2.6 wins.

Sun Belt

73: Appalachian State, -2.1 rating, 8.4 wins.
80: Troy, -3.6 rating, 7.5 wins.
87: Louisiana Monroe, -4.5 rating, 6.9 wins.
95: Arkansas State, -5.7 rating, 7.0 wins.
97: Georgia Southern, -6.0 rating, 6.7 wins.
109: South Alabama, -10.2 rating, 5.1 wins.
118: Coastal Carolina, -13.5 rating, 4.5 wins.
120: Georgia State, -13.8 rating, 3.8 wins.
124: Louisiana, -15.8 rating, 3.9 wins.
126: Texas State, -16.6 rating, 4.0 wins.

Conference USA

52: Marshall, 3.0 rating, 8.9 wins.
60: Florida Atlantic, 1.1 rating, 7.5 wins.
69: Louisiana Tech, -1.6 rating, 7.6 wins.
70: Middle Tennessee, -1.7 rating, 7.3 wins.
96: North Texas, -6.0 rating, 7.3 wins.
111: Southern Miss, -10.6 rating, 5.6 wins.
112: Western Kentucky, -10.7 rating, 4.9 wins.
113: UAB, -10.8 rating, 6.1 wins.
114: UTSA, -11.4 rating, 4.8 wins.
116: Florida International, -12.2 rating, 4.9 wins.
117: Old Dominion, -12.6 rating, 4.8 wins.
123: Charlotte, -15.6 rating, 3.8 wins.
128: Rice, -19.5 rating, 3.7 wins.
130: UTEP, -21.5 rating, 2.6 wins.

Comments

  1. Andy Jaske says:

    Interesting totals, but the distribution appears compressed. How to “elongate” it slightly?

  2. Marshall ahead of FAU jumps out as an interesting projection.

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