THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

NFL Win Totals for 2018 by Wisdom of Crowds

By Dr. Ed Feng 5 Comments

You want an early grasp on the NFL season. 

Analytics based on game data has become increasingly important in making football predictions. However, it has its limits during the preseason. The NFL has a strict salary cap, which implies regression to the mean from last year’s numbers.

Here, I present a different approach, and it might seem stupid at first.

Let’s take the subjective power rankings posted out by media outlets after the draft and aggregate them into preseason NFL rankings. While this might seem like a reach, data from the past four seasons supports this wisdom of crowds approach.

Let me explain.

The power of wisdom of crowds

The wisdom of crowds approach to NFL rankings was inspired by the preseason college football polls. My research shows that the higher ranked team in the preseason USA Today Coaches poll wins 61.3% of bowl games (225-142 with no prediction between two unranked teams in 94 games the past 13 years).

For the past 5 season, I’ve gathered subjective power rankings the week before the NFL season starts. Since the 2013 season, the model has predicted 63.3% of NFL game winners. Remember, this method doesn’t consider any information from regular season games.

This year, I’m stretching this wisdom of crowds model by taking power rankings from after the NFL draft. While I don’t expect this model to be as accurate as the results above, the markets won’t be as accurate either.

To check out the rankings, click here.

NFL Win Totals

The following list shows win totals based on this wisdom of crowds model. All but 6 of these win totals are within 1 win of the total posted at Bookmaker on August 14th.

1. New England, 11.9
2. Philadelphia, 11.8
3. Los Angeles Rams, 10.8
4. Minnesota, 10.7
5. Jacksonville, 10.5
6. Pittsburgh, 10.4
7. New Orleans, 10.2
8. Green Bay, 9.7
9. Atlanta, 9.6
10. Los Angeles Chargers, 9.5
11. Houston, 9.2
12. Carolina, 8.8
13. Tennessee, 8.8
14. Kansas City, 8.6
15. San Francisco, 8.4
16. Oakland, 7.9
17. Baltimore, 7.4
18. Detroit, 7.4
19. Dallas, 7.4
20. Denver, 7.3
21. Seattle, 6.8
22. Washington, 6.6
23. Cincinnati, 6.4
24. Buffalo, 6.4
25. Tampa Bay, 6.4
26. Chicago, 6.3
27. New York Giants, 6.1
28. Arizona, 5.4
29. Miami, 5.3
30. New York Jets, 5.2
31. Indianapolis, 4.4
32. Cleveland, 4.4

Become a member of The Power Rank

I update this model with the power rankings that come out the week before the season starts.  Members have access to these numbers.

To learn more about becoming a member, click here.

Filed Under: National Football League

Comments

  1. MP says

    August 17, 2018 at 12:50 am

    Who exactly is in this “crowd?” The win projections at the bottom in no way match what Bookmaker is currently offering (as of Aug 17, the same date this article was published). Cle is ~6, Ind is ~7.5, Mia is ~6.75, NYG is ~7.5.

    Reply
  2. MP says

    August 17, 2018 at 9:48 pm

    Half of these are no where near what Bookmaker was offering on Aug 14. Also, who are your sources for this crowd projection?

    Reply
    • Dr. Ed Feng says

      August 21, 2018 at 11:32 am

      By what metric are you looking at?

      I have a list if you want.

      Reply
  3. brian says

    September 4, 2018 at 8:28 am

    I bet sports everyday. It started 40 years ago.

    I want to say “thank you” for providing this site. I think what I love most about it is the blending of your predictive model and contrasting it with current money lines. I used it last night to cash a ticket on the LA Angels. You had the Angels listed at a 61% chance of winning- the line was Angels +105- so I punted there. Interestingly enough, and this is a professional opinion from a guy who plays “angles” routinely- some coaches have teams ready to roll right out of the gate. Other’s don’t. I am not sure you could incorporate that insight into a model…

    Thus I had Va. Tech +7.5 (your model said +3 anyway) last night. I faded UCLA and Arizona (football) last week because those two programs have habitually under performed right out of the gate.

    Looking forward to incorporating your info into my 40 years of insight. Thanks again, Ed!

    Reply
    • Dr. Ed Feng says

      September 12, 2018 at 12:01 pm

      Thanks, Brian. Please keep leaving your thoughts.

      Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • Podcast: The secret edge in Super Bowl LVII between Kansas City and Philadelphia
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, February 4, 2023
  • Podcast: Hitman on NFL betting, Super Bowl LVII
  • Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member