THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

How Philadelphia used analytics to win the Super Bowl

By Dr. Ed Feng 2 Comments

After beating New England in the Super Bowl, Philadelphia Eagles head coach Doug Pederson joined the Game Theory and Money podcast to talk analytics. I’ve transcribed his words here, with edits to make it more readable.

First, Pederson in general terms how he views analytics.

Our team has a lot of information and data that pertains to situational football. What’s amazing is that I do a study, and boom, I have 5 to 10 years of data. However much data I want to pull, I can get a relatively quick and accurate answer with some of the data.

And for me, it’s about deciphering what I want to use. What helps us win football games, and what helps us win the Super Bowl, when you’re going against a tremendous opponent in the New England Patriots. What advantages can I have through the numbers, whether it’s 4th downs, two point conversions, or whatever. It might even be on a player.

I can use that information in formulating game plans and making good sound decisions on game day.

The most interesting comment Pederson made was about how a fourth down decision affects win probability, a topic Brian Burke studied long ago.

I think where the numbers and analytics comes in is by field position, by down and distance, and win probability of the success rate of getting that fourth down.

I’m constantly being communicated with. I have a coach upstairs that’s giving me this information real time, game day. Hey coach, if we can get it to 4th and 2, 4th and 3, this is the success rate here in this situation.

Now ultimately, it’s my decision whether to go for it in those situations. But as our numbers have shown, I’ve elected to go for it on 4th down more than most.

The decision to go for it on 4th down isn’t only about analytics either:

Well, people say I’m an aggressive player caller. But there’s a lot of information that’s been studied prior to that decision, and a lot of these decisions are made before the game even starts.

Like the other night in the Super Bowl, I’m faced with that 4th and 1 at the minus 45 yard line. I elected to go for it with 5 minutes to go in the game. That to me was more about trusting your player than any analytic number.

Even though it was favorable to go for it, I trusted our guys in that situation, and I think it’s important to have that type of trust with your players.

He’s talking about going for it on 4th and 1 from their 45 yard line with 5:39 to go in the game. The Eagles converted a short pass from Nick Foles to Zach Ertz, and this drive ended with the go ahead touchdown that won the game.

I may be cherry picking the good situations in which analytics have worked out for an underdog like Philadelphia. However, the other big story in football analytics is how Cleveland’s experiment with numbers ended in a 0-16 record this season.

Philadelphia may ride Carson Wentz and numbers to multiple Super Bowl titles. Or Doug Pederson might get fired after the 2019 season. Either way, it’s important to take this snapshot of analytics at the end of the 2017 season.

You can listen to the full interview with Doug Pederson from 23:18 to 33:25 of this episode of Game Theory and Money.

Filed Under: Doug Pederson, Football Analytics, National Football League

Comments

  1. Carl Bruun says

    February 14, 2018 at 1:04 pm

    Excellent article. I’ve been saying for years that teams should hire mathematical experts to assess and implement the most successful strategies for a given play, thereby eliminating the guesswork and hunches involved in those plays. NFL and collegiate coaches are conservative to a fault, and teams like the Eagles using enlightened analysis are ahead of the curve.

    Reply

Trackbacks

  1. Weekly Sports Analytics News Roundup - February 13th, 2018 - StatSheetStuffer says:
    February 13, 2018 at 1:32 pm

    […] Ed Feng’s podcast with Doug Pederson discussing how the Eagles used analytics to win the Super Bowl. Paper on the Validation of the Australian Football League Player Ratings. Football […]

    Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • 7-Nugget Saturday, February 4, 2023
  • Podcast: Hitman on NFL betting, Super Bowl LVII
  • Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023
  • Cincinnati at Kansas City, AFC Conference Championship Game

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member