The numbers do not like the Pac-12. USC is 11th with a 14.9% chance to make the playoff, which means they need to win the Pac-12 championship game and hope a lot of other contenders lose.
In the past 3 years, we haven’t seen a top contender lose in their conference championship game. This makes life easy for the committee.
Don’t assume the same lack of chaos will happen this year.