Green Bay has been without QB Aaron Rodgers for 3 games, which lets us get a market estimate of his worth. We’ll do this through my market rankings which take closing point spread and adjust for schedule with my ranking algorithm.
After week 6, the markets rankings had Green Bay 5th in the NFL, with a rating of 3.9 points. This implies Green Bay would beat the average NFL team by about 4 points on a neutral field.
These current NFL market rankings only consider the 3 games for Green Bay since Rodgers got hurt.
1. New England, 8.07
2. Atlanta, 6.33
3. Pittsburgh, 4.71
4. Dallas, 4.49
5. Kansas City, 4.38
6. Seattle, 3.75
7. Philadelphia, 2.53
8. Los Angeles Rams, 1.98
9. Carolina, 1.84
10. New Orleans, 1.72
11. Tennessee, 1.52
12. Oakland, 1.20
13. Denver, 1.11
14. Minnesota, 0.99
15. Cincinnati, 0.01
16. Los Angeles Chargers, -0.05
17. Tampa Bay, -0.06
18. Baltimore, -0.12
19. Jacksonville, -0.19
20. Detroit, -0.67
21. Buffalo, -0.85
22. Washington, -1.04
23. Arizona, -1.32
24. New York Giants, -2.19
25. Houston, -2.22
26. Miami, -2.55
27. Chicago, -3.85
28. New York Jets, -4.55
29. Green Bay, -5.57
30. San Francisco, -6.21
31. Indianapolis, -6.21
32. Cleveland, -7.31
According to the markets, Green Bay has dropped into the bottom 5 of the NFL. They would now be expected to lose by 5.6 to the average NFL team on a neutral field.
While this 9.6 point drop seems too large for me, it does roughly explain the point spread against Baltimore. Giving 2.5 points for home field to Green Bay, these market rankings imply that Baltimore should be about a 3 point road favorite. The markets favor Baltimore by 2.
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