THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • College Basketball
    • NFL
    • College Football
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
    • CFB yards per play
    • World Soccer/Football
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
    • COVID-19 Policy
  • Log in

Why is your Ohio State at Iowa prediction off?

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

After posting the public week 10 college football predictions, I got some push back on why Ohio State was only a 3.6 point favorite at Iowa this week.

math guy @thepowerrank: "Ohio St will beat Iowa by 3.6 on the road. Iowa has a 39% chance of beating Ohio St" ?
Who sent it from 16.5 to 18?

— Jason McIntyre (@jasonrmcintyre) November 2, 2017

As of Friday morning, Ohio State is a 18 point favorite in the markets.

The public predictions are based on the team rankings that take margin of victory and adjust for strength of schedule. By this points based metric, Iowa gets ranked a strong 17th, as they beat a surging Iowa State by 3 and only lost to Penn State by 2.

17th seems way too high for Iowa, and I agree that a prediction of Ohio State by 3.6 is too low. Some of my other metrics support this.

My market rankings take closing point spreads and adjust for strength of schedule. This predicts a 17 point win for Ohio State on the road.

I use yards per play adjusted for strength of schedule to evaluate teams and make predictions. This metric makes Ohio State a 20 point road favorite.

Members of The Power Rank have access to predictions that combine these sources, which predicts a 10.6 point win for Ohio State. I believe this will be closer to the actual margin of victory.

However, I don’t like to go against coaches like Urban Meyer and Nick Saban as big favorites. The large spread implies a significant talent gap, and these coaches almost always have their teams prepared for these games.

Get a sample of my member predictions

This is a sample of my analysis that goes out in my free email newsletter. You also get a sample of the member predictions usually saved for paying members of the site.

To get this free service, enter your best email and click on “Sign up now!”








Filed Under: College Football

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Predictions from Ed Feng

I use my Stanford Ph.D. in applied math to make football and March Madness predictions.

To get a sample of my best American football predictions and March Madness cheat sheet, sign up for my free email newsletter.

Enter your email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches

Recent Articles

  • Bracket Wisdom #4: The one thing you must get right to win
  • Bracket Wisdom #3: Alabama
  • Bracket Wisdom #2: Predictability vs skill in 3 point shooting, Part 2
  • Bracket Wisdom #1: Predictability vs skill in 3 point shooting, Part 1
  • Members: College basketball predictions for Saturday, February 26, 2021

© 2021 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Get a sample of my best football predictions

While I usually save my best predictions for paying members of the site, I offer a sample in my weekly email newsletter.


To get this service, sign up for my free email newsletter.


Enter your email and click on "Sign up now!"

No thanks, I'll make predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • College Basketball
    • NFL
    • College Football
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
    • CFB yards per play
    • World Soccer/Football
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
    • COVID-19 Policy