On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Bob Stoll, founder of Dr. Bob Sports and true analytics pioneer, joins me for a wide ranging conversation. Bob has been using analytics in his handicapping for 30 years.
Among other topics, we discuss the following:
- How Bob first started running numbers on the NFL, and how different it was back then
- The definition of a tout, and why Bob chooses to show his long term record
- How Bob makes player adjustments for his college football model
- The machine learning method he is applying to the NFL
- Whether linebackers or defensive backs are more important to the defense
After the interview, I have my own segment on the Pittsburgh Steelers and where they rank in my member numbers. Listen at 32:58.
To listen on iTunes, click here.
To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.
“Dr” Bob (who does not even have an undergraduate degree, let alone any doctorate) is as much a tout as any other salesman and does NOT display long term records. Notably:
1) He has deleted numerous losing seasons of his own picks and picks from other touts he’s sold, including his own MLB seasons, the NFL picks of Mike O’Connor, and the MLB picks of Gill Alexander.
2) He is advertising an MLB record of picks that were never even posted publicly. “Past losing seasons don’t count; winning picks from my model that were not even posted count” is pure tout 101.
3) When his free plays are doing well but his paid picks are losing, he will routinely advertise the free play record while ignoring the pay record. Last year he got buried in basketball but would advertise that his free plays were winning.
First off, the nickname Dr. Bob is one I got in high school for playing basketball in the style of Dr. J – it has nothing to do with me claiming to have a doctorate and I’m proud of the fact that I didn’t have to get my degree from Berkeley to become successful. Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Michael Dell, and many of the most successful people in the world did not get their undergraduate degrees.
1) I didn’t take down records of Gill and Mike O’Connor because they were not profitable over their time on my site (FYI, Gill was down about 10 Stars in 5 years and Mike was 98-97 in 3 years of NFL) but because I no longer sell that product. If they had winning records I’d have still taken their records down, as what would be the purpose of having past winning records of a service I no longer have to offer? It wasn’t a master plan to deceive the public. As far as my baseball, I hadn’t done baseball since 1996 or so and I had a winning record in baseball before that. When I stopped doing baseball, so I could have some time off during the summer I no longer posted those records.
2) The MLB model picks you are referring to were posted on my site every day two seasons ago from the All-Star Break on and were emailed to Gill’s baseball clients as well. They were profitable but that doesn’t really matter since I’m not doing baseball.
3) I list my record of free plays and my Best Bets and that information is available on my site. Yes, I had a horrible Best Bet record in the NBA last season, which is why I’m giving my NBA plays away at no charge this season (is that ‘toutish’ behavior?) and will be posting them on the site when I start handicapping the NBA in late-December. I never advertised that my free plays were winning. I simply updated the free play record on the free analysis page, as I do with every sport. If people are going to follow my free analysis they should know the past record. To say I advertised it is false. I did make mention that overall my college basketball plays were slightly unprofitable last year (163-149-9) but that overall my college basketball analysis worked. And, in making that point I did mention that it was a bit unlucky that my free plays won 58% while my Best Bets were just a bit over 50%, but I that’s not an advertisement. It was an analyse of last year’s College Basketball methods, which were not that bad. You’d think I’d get some credit for posting free plays that won 58% but you even found a way to turn that into a negative.
You are obviously biased against me, which is your choice, but I am completely honest about my record on both Best Bets and free analysis for all the sports I handicap. I did take down the year by year breakdown of the NFL plays from my old model but it is clearly stated in my past performance page that those plays were just 50.6% from 1999 through 2012 after being 57.8% from 1987 to 1998, which is 100% accurate. I’m not trying to hide anything.
Regardless of what you think, I actually am one of the good guys in this business and provide tons of free analysis on my site and that analysis has been profitable. You make me out to be one of those telemarketing outfits from Vegas and I am the polar opposite of that. I don’t even answer my phone because I’m too busy working on my analysis. Thankfully, most people know that I’m honest and long term profitable and I guarantee you that I am more respected in this industry than just about anyone – regardless of your attempts to disparage me.
Dr. Bob
Dr. Bob is as honest as you will ever find. I’m not sure what your intentions are, but you obviously haven’t been following this industry too long. That shit you posted about deleting records or deleting losses is completely false. Come on man, go harass some handicapper that calls you 5 times a week and not someone who is 100% legit.