Cincinnati opened the 2017 season with Austin Peay, a FCS team that went in 0-11 the previous year. It didn’t result in the expected blow out, as Cincinnati only won 26-14.
In contrast, Michigan looked good in their opener against Florida. It didn’t seem like Cincinnati had a chance in traveling to the Big House for week 2.
Instead, Cincinnati made it a game, as they trailed only 17-14 late in the third quarter before Michigan pulled away.
The Texas defense got gashed in their first game, allowing upstart Maryland to gain 8.3 yards per play. It seemed like miracle worker turned Texas coach Tom Herman had lost his touch in a 51-41 loss.
However, the Texas defense shut out San Jose State in week 2. It probably shouldn’t be a surprise, given that the defense ranked 34th in my adjusted yards per play in 2016 and brought back lots of talent.
The curse of small sample size. You know you shouldn’t make a quick judgment, even if you watched every play.
But somehow we all have problems with this.
In my article The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size, I discuss the human psychology behind why we have such a difficult relationship with randomness. It involves the very trait that makes us most human.
To check out the article, click here.
It also have some hilarious anecdotes from my volunteer teaching at the Summers-Knoll School in Ann Arbor.
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