THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • College Basketball
    • NFL
    • College Football
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
    • CFB yards per play
    • World Soccer/Football
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
    • COVID-19 Policy
  • Log in

The probability of chaos on championship week, 2016

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Alabama, Clemson and Washington enter the weekend as big favorites over their conference championship foes. By my member numbers, here are their win probabilities:

  • Alabama has a 92.3% chance to beat Florida.
  • Clemson has a 79.9% chance to beat Virginia Tech.
  • Washington has a 72.2% chance to beat Colorado.

Still, it’s not out of the question they all lose. Assuming these games are statistically independent, you can determine this probability by multiplying the chances for the three teams to lose.

By my numbers, there’s a 0.4% chance that Alabama, Clemson and Washington all lose. Improbable but not impossible. This was about the same chance my numbers gave Clemson, Michigan and Washington to all lose in week 11 before it happened.

0.4% is also about the chance of drawing two Aces from a random deck of cards (1 in 221). Getting pocket Aces in poker is unlikely. However, any poker player has most likely had a night with multiple pocket Aces.

Don’t rule out the impossible.

Filed Under: College Football, College Football Analytics, Poker

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Predictions from Ed Feng

I use my Stanford Ph.D. in applied math to make football and March Madness predictions.

To get a sample of my best American football predictions and March Madness cheat sheet, sign up for my free email newsletter.

Enter your email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches

Recent Articles

  • [Members] College basketball predictions for March 6, 2021
  • Bracket Wisdom #5: Houston
  • Bracket Wisdom #4: The one thing you must get right to win
  • Bracket Wisdom #3: Alabama
  • Bracket Wisdom #2: Predictability vs skill in 3 point shooting, Part 2

© 2021 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Get a sample of my best football predictions

While I usually save my best predictions for paying members of the site, I offer a sample in my weekly email newsletter.


To get this service, sign up for my free email newsletter.


Enter your email and click on "Sign up now!"

No thanks, I'll make predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • College Basketball
    • NFL
    • College Football
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
    • CFB yards per play
    • World Soccer/Football
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
    • COVID-19 Policy