It seems particularly hard to do quality early NFL rankings this year.
None of the preseason favorites have looked great. Carolina has regressed from last season. Seattle’s offense got off to a slow start.
The rankings above combine preseason expectation with team rankings based on limited data from the current season. It has Green Bay as a definitive number one.
I disagree. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t look right. Against the Giants, he had all the time in the world to throw, and he faced a secondary missing key starters. Still, the Packers only threw for 5.8 yards per attempt, below the NFL average.
I also calculate rankings for members of my site that use more predictors than the public rankings. These extra predictors are based on pass efficiency (yards per pass attempt, a strong predictor of success) and market data.
Here are the member rankings:
1. Seattle
2. Carolina
3. Arizona
4. Green Bay
5. Denver
6. New England
7. Pittsburgh
8. Minnesota
9. Cincinnati
10. Atlanta
If Carolina and New England swapped places, this would be a pretty solid impression of a messy NFL in 2016.
In addition, these member rankings drive predictions that have gone 58.4% this season against spreads taken from Wednesday each week. This is an unsustainable win rate, but if you’re in an NFL pool, you might want to check out becoming a member of The Power Rank.
To see the most current, full NFL rankings, click here.
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