This is an excerpt from The 2016 College Football Win Totals Report, which has my predictions for all 128 bowl subdivision teams. For more information, click here.
While the preseason model considers four years of team performance, it gives last year the most weight. This feature helps the Volunteers.
In 2015, Tennessee lost four games. However, each of these games came against quality competition, and Tennessee never lost by more than a touchdown. Two of these losses came against Alabama and Oklahoma, two of the four teams that made the College Football Playoff.
My ranking algorithm gives teams credit for playing tight games against quality competition. In addition, Tennessee has 17 returning starters, another input to my preseason model, split almost equally on both sides of the ball. These factors lead to Tennessee’s preseason rank of 7th.
Tennessee still has its questions. QB Josh Dobbs can get better, and neither the offense or defense ranked in the top 25 by my adjusted yards per play last season.
Still, Tennessee is projected to win 9 games. They get top ranked Alabama at home, which implies a 40% win probability. The preseason model projects road trips to Georgia and Texas A&M as coin flip type games.
Tennessee’s fate in these three critical games will determine whether they can win more than 9 games.
Get college football win totals for all 128 teams
You can look at my predictions in The 2016 College Football Win Totals Report. Here’s what you get:
- A win total for all 128 bowl subdivision teams.
- The hidden factor that makes accurate preseason college football predictions possible.
- 3 surprising teams based on expected win total.
- Which human polls to trust in making predictions. The answer might surprise you.
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