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2016 MLB ensemble win totals

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

These ensemble win totals combine the predictions of 5 different quants and the markets (Bookmaker on April 2nd, 2016). The idea is that merging predictions tends to cancel out the errors made by each, leading to more accurate predictions.

1. Chicago Cubs, 95.3
2. Los Angeles Dodgers, 91.1
3. New York Mets, 88.7
4. Washington, 87.9
5. San Francisco, 87.7
6. Houston, 87.3
7. Boston, 87.0
8. Toronto, 86.6
9. Cleveland, 86.2
10. St. Louis, 84.7
11. Pittsburgh, 83.9
12. Seattle, 83.9
13. New York Yankees, 83.8
14. Tampa Bay, 83.2
15. Chicago White Sox, 81.8
16. Texas, 81.2
17. Detroit, 81.1
18. Arizona, 81.0
19. Los Angeles Angels, 80.3
20. Kansas City, 79.9
21. Miami, 79.8
22. Oakland, 78.5
23. Minnesota, 77.9
24. Baltimore, 77.8
25. San Diego, 72.7
26. Colorado, 72.1
27. Milwaukee, 71.3
28. Cincinnati, 70.3
29. Atlanta, 67.6
30. Philadelphia, 65.3

A few thoughts.

Kansas City

What to make of the defending World Series champions?

The markets predict 84 wins, but the Royals do poorly in the computers (70 wins in Davenport, 75 wins for Baseball Prospectus).

The Royals had the best cluster luck in 2015 (+72 runs during the regular season), and it remains to be seen whether their high contact, strong bullpen approach can continue to defy the numbers.

Boston

Every predictor had Boston with 86, 87 or 88 wins. Guess it’s certain that this team will bounce back from a disappointing 78 win campaign from last year.

List of 5 analytics predictions for win totals

These sources were consulted for win total predictions.

  • Joe Peta on ESPN Insider (subscription needed). Joe wrote the book Trading Bases, coined the term cluster luck and has been an MLB preseason beast for a few years now.
  • Fangraphs.
  • Baseball Prospectus.
  • Zips by Dan Szymborski. Data from the March 28th, 2016 issue of ESPN The Magazine.
  • Clay Davenport.

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