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How to make better win probabilities for the 2016 NCAA tournament

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Before the start of the 2016 tourney, members of The Power Rank had access to these ensemble win probabilities.

1. Kansas, 16.3%.
2. North Carolina, 13.6%.
3. Michigan State, 10.8%.
4. Virginia, 10.5%.
5. Villanova, 6.5%.
6. Oklahoma, 6.2%.
7. Kentucky, 4.0%.
8. Oregon, 3.6%.
9. West Virginia, 3.6%.
10. Xavier, 2.1%.
11. Purdue, 2.1%.
12. Duke, 1.9%.
13. Texas A&M, 1.9%.
14. Miami (FL), 1.7%.
15. Indiana, 1.4%.
16. Arizona, 1.3%.
17. Maryland, 1.2%.
18. Iowa State, 1.1%.
19. California, 1.0%.
20. Iowa, 0.9%.
21. Baylor, 0.9%.
22. Utah, 0.7%.
23. Texas, 0.7%.
24. Wichita State, 0.6%.
25. Seton Hall, 0.5%.

No one predictor is perfect, and research has shown that combining predictors leads to more accurate predictions. These ensemble win probabilities include one part each from my numbers at The Power Rank, FiveThirtyEight and Ken Pomeroy and two parts the implied probabilities from the markets.

Michigan State versus Virginia

I was most interested in getting the balance between Michigan State and Virginia in the Midwest right. My numbers gave Virginia a 14.3% win probability with Michigan State trailing behind at 10.2%.

However, I thought my numbers couldn’t capture this Michigan State team. They lost leader Denzel Valentine for part of the season, and Tom Izzo’s teams outperform the pre-tourney expectation given by my numbers.

The markets liked Michigan State, as they made them one of the pre-tourney favorites along with Kansas and North Carolina. The ensemble gave an ever so slight edge to Michigan State over Virginia, which I found intuitively correct.

The contrarian pick as tournament champion

The ensemble also gave Virginia a lower win probability (10.5%) than my numbers (14.3%). However, only 4.7% of brackets submitted to ESPN picked them as champion, which still makes them the contrarian pick for champion.

The randomness of the tourney made all predictors look silly as 15 seed Middle Tennessee State upset 2 seed Michigan in their first game. The underdog hit 11 of 19 three point shots and ran away with a nine point win.

However, I still trust in the ensemble numbers from before the tournament. One game will not change that.

Win probabilities before the Sweet 16

After an unforgettable opening weekend of the tournament, I’ve recalculated the win probabilities for the remaining 16 teams.

1. North Carolina, 24.9%.
2. Virginia, 20.3%.
3. Kansas, 17.7%.
4. Villanova, 11.6%.
5. Oklahoma, 8.3%.
6. Indiana, 2.9%.
7. Duke, 2.5%.
8. Oregon, 2.3%.
9. Iowa State, 2.2%.
10. Miami (FL), 2.2%.
11. Gonzaga, 1.6%.
12. Texas A&M, 1.5%.
13. Maryland, 0.7%.
14. Wisconsin, 0.5%.
15. Notre Dame, 0.4%.
16. Syracuse, 0.3%.

These are my numbers only, not an ensemble.

Virginia gets a bump in win probability now that they can’t face Michigan State in the Midwest region final. Tony Bennett’s team has an almost one in five chance to win the tourney.

However, North Carolina gets the largest bump in win probability. First, they posted easy wins in their first two games, perhaps not surprising given Roy Williams’ tournament history since 2002. These games boosted North Carolina’s rating in my college basketball rankings, which drive these win probability calculations.

Second, North Carolina also sees a depleted field in the East region. My numbers like Kentucky more than Indiana, but the latter team will face North Carolina in the Sweet 16. On the other side the region, West Virginia and Xavier both lost.

To check out all the round by round probabilities for the 2016 tournament, check out this interactive visual.

Filed Under: 2016 NCAA Tournament, Basketball analytics, College Basketball, Roy Williams

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  • About
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