It’s fun to play with the interactive bracket with win probabilities, but it’s not easy to sort teams by tourney win probabilities. So here’s a list.
1. Kansas, 18.4%.
2. North Carolina, 16.9%.
3. Virginia, 14.3%.
4. Michigan State, 10.2%.
5. Villanova, 8.9%.
6. Oklahoma, 8.7%.
7. West Virginia, 4.2%.
8. Oregon, 2.7%.
9. Kentucky, 2.6%.
10. Duke, 1.7%.
11. Miami (FL), 1.5%.
12. Xavier, 1.4%.
13. Texas A&M, 1.3%.
14. Purdue, 1.2%.
15. Iowa, 1.2%.
16. Iowa State, 0.9%.
17. Indiana, 0.8%.
18. Maryland, 0.6%.
19. California, 0.5%.
20. Arizona, 0.5%.
21. Seton Hall, 0.3%.
22. Baylor, 0.2%.
23. Texas, 0.2%.
24. Utah, 0.1%.
25. Gonzaga, 0.1%.
26. Cincinnati, 0.1%.
27. Wisconsin, 0.1%.
28. Notre Dame, 0.1%.
29. Connecticut, 0.1%.
30. VCU, 0.1%.
31. Vanderbilt, 0.0%.
32. Wichita State, 0.0%.
33. Syracuse, 0.0%.
34. Butler, 0.0%.
35. Pittsburgh, 0.0%.
The remaining teams have less than a 1 in 1000 chance, so don’t pick them as champion in your pool.
Where do we find the Public %?
http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2016/en/whopickedwhom