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Win probabilities for the 2016 NCAA tournament

By Dr. Ed Feng 3 Comments

It’s fun to play with the interactive bracket with win probabilities, but it’s not easy to sort teams by tourney win probabilities. So here’s a list.

1. Kansas, 18.4%.
2. North Carolina, 16.9%.
3. Virginia, 14.3%.
4. Michigan State, 10.2%.
5. Villanova, 8.9%.
6. Oklahoma, 8.7%.
7. West Virginia, 4.2%.
8. Oregon, 2.7%.
9. Kentucky, 2.6%.
10. Duke, 1.7%.
11. Miami (FL), 1.5%.
12. Xavier, 1.4%.
13. Texas A&M, 1.3%.
14. Purdue, 1.2%.
15. Iowa, 1.2%.
16. Iowa State, 0.9%.
17. Indiana, 0.8%.
18. Maryland, 0.6%.
19. California, 0.5%.
20. Arizona, 0.5%.
21. Seton Hall, 0.3%.
22. Baylor, 0.2%.
23. Texas, 0.2%.
24. Utah, 0.1%.
25. Gonzaga, 0.1%.
26. Cincinnati, 0.1%.
27. Wisconsin, 0.1%.
28. Notre Dame, 0.1%.
29. Connecticut, 0.1%.
30. VCU, 0.1%.
31. Vanderbilt, 0.0%.
32. Wichita State, 0.0%.
33. Syracuse, 0.0%.
34. Butler, 0.0%.
35. Pittsburgh, 0.0%.

The remaining teams have less than a 1 in 1000 chance, so don’t pick them as champion in your pool.

Filed Under: 2016 NCAA Tournament, Basketball analytics, College Basketball

Comments

  1. Jonathan H says

    March 16, 2016 at 9:12 am

    Where do we find the Public %?

    Reply
    • Dr. Ed Feng says

      March 24, 2016 at 4:48 pm

      http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2016/en/whopickedwhom

      Reply

Trackbacks

  1. How to make better win probabilities for the 2016 NCAA tournament says:
    March 23, 2016 at 3:09 pm

    […] leads to more accurate predictions. These ensemble win probabilities include one part each from my numbers at The Power Rank, FiveThirtyEight and Ken Pomeroy and two parts the implied probabilities from the […]

    Reply

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