Win probabilities for the 2016 NCAA tournament

It’s fun to play with the interactive bracket with win probabilities, but it’s not easy to sort teams by tourney win probabilities. So here’s a list.

1. Kansas, 18.4%.
2. North Carolina, 16.9%.
3. Virginia, 14.3%.
4. Michigan State, 10.2%.
5. Villanova, 8.9%.
6. Oklahoma, 8.7%.
7. West Virginia, 4.2%.
8. Oregon, 2.7%.
9. Kentucky, 2.6%.
10. Duke, 1.7%.
11. Miami (FL), 1.5%.
12. Xavier, 1.4%.
13. Texas A&M, 1.3%.
14. Purdue, 1.2%.
15. Iowa, 1.2%.
16. Iowa State, 0.9%.
17. Indiana, 0.8%.
18. Maryland, 0.6%.
19. California, 0.5%.
20. Arizona, 0.5%.
21. Seton Hall, 0.3%.
22. Baylor, 0.2%.
23. Texas, 0.2%.
24. Utah, 0.1%.
25. Gonzaga, 0.1%.
26. Cincinnati, 0.1%.
27. Wisconsin, 0.1%.
28. Notre Dame, 0.1%.
29. Connecticut, 0.1%.
30. VCU, 0.1%.
31. Vanderbilt, 0.0%.
32. Wichita State, 0.0%.
33. Syracuse, 0.0%.
34. Butler, 0.0%.
35. Pittsburgh, 0.0%.

The remaining teams have less than a 1 in 1000 chance, so don’t pick them as champion in your pool.