It’s anyone’s guess with the parity in college basketball this season.
Villanova tops my college basketball rankings with a rating of 17.3, which gives an expected margin of victory against an average Division I team. At the end of last season, five teams had a higher rating than the 17.3 of Villanova.
The lack of dominant teams in college basketball makes it difficult to predict the tournament this season. Based on ESPN’s February 29th bracket projection, I calculated the win probability for each team.
You can play with the numbers for each team in this interactive visual, but this list gives the tourney win probability for the top 10 teams.
1. Villanova, 18.1%.
2. Virginia, 14.2%.
3. North Carolina, 12.7%.
4. Kansas, 10.7%.
5. Oklahoma, 9.0%.
6. Michigan State, 6.8%.
7. Miami (FL), 3.9%.
8. Xavier, 3.5%.
9. Iowa, 3.2%.
10. Duke, 3.1%.
The top 5 teams have a total probability of 64.7%. Last season, when Kentucky entered the tournament undefeated, the top 5 teams had 81.2% of the total probability.
March Madness will be even nuttier this season, especially since there’s a big reason Villanova most likely won’t win the tournament.
I’ll be writing about that reason as the Selection Sunday approaches. To stay up to date with my March Madness content, sign up for my free email newsletter. You’ll get a sample of my bracket advice the week before the tourney.
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