Prediction for the 2015 NBA Finals

Cleveland makes this a difficult NBA Finals to predict. LeBron James and the Cavs didn’t play well early in the season.

These early season struggles hurt Cleveland in my NBA team rankings, which take margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule. These rankings predict Golden State would beat Cleveland by 4.6 points on a neutral court.

To get a better estimate of team strength, I use data from the betting markets. My NBA market rankings take the closing point spreads in games since late February and adjust for schedule with The Power Rank algorithm.

In these market rankings, Golden State is 2 points better than Cleveland on a neutral court. With 4.5 points for home court, this gives the following prediction for game 1.

Golden State (1) will beat Cleveland (3) by 6.5 at home. Cleveland has a 28% chance of beating Golden State.

This gives the following odds for the series.

Golden State has a 69.4 percent chance of winning the series.

This is very close to the markets, which have Golden State -240 (an implied odds of 67.9% to win the series).

Note that these numbers do not make any adjustments for Kevin Love, who got injured before the Cavs played the Bulls in the second round. This injury should push the odds in favor of Golden State.

The series depends on how well Golden State slows down LeBron James. Chicago’s Jimmy Butler did a great job on him, and the Bulls lasted 6 games. Atlanta had no answer for LeBron and got swept.

Golden State is a great defensive team, as they had the best raw defensive efficiency during the regular season. They’ll put Harrison Barnes, Andre Igoudala and even Draymond Green on LeBron.

LeBron might also slow himself down, as he’s had a bad back and ankle during the playoffs.

These are the market rankings for all 30 NBA teams. The number after each team is a rating that gives an expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral court.

1. Golden State, 8.15.
2. San Antonio, 6.64.
3. Cleveland, 6.11.
4. Los Angeles Clippers, 5.00.
5. Atlanta, 3.60.
6. Houston, 3.31.
7. Memphis, 2.46.
8. Oklahoma City, 2.34.
9. Portland, 2.15.
10. Indiana, 1.93.
11. Chicago, 1.85.
12. Dallas, 1.38.
13. Toronto, 0.77.
14. Washington, 0.49.
15. New Orleans, -0.02.
16. Utah, -0.59.
17. Boston, -0.92.
18. Miami, -1.34.
19. Brooklyn, -1.60.
20. Charlotte, -2.02.
21. Milwaukee, -2.07.
22. Phoenix, -2.37.
23. Detroit, -3.17.
24. Denver, -3.48.
25. Sacramento, -5.30.
26. Orlando, -6.68.
27. Minnesota, -7.63.
28. Los Angeles Lakers, -7.68.
29. Philadelphia, -8.41.
30. New York, -11.54.