With Eric Chemi of CNBC, I calculated an ensemble prediction for the Super Bowl that combines my numbers with other trusted sources. This ensemble predicts a slim 0.46 point edge for Seattle, which gives New England a 49% chance to win.
Here are the sources I used in the ensemble.
- The Power Rank – I used my rankings that combine calculations on margin of victory and yards per play.
- Advanced Football Analytics – Brian Burke uses yards per play and offensive turnover rates in ranking teams.
- Numberfire – Rankings based on an expected points analysis of every play.
- Football Outsiders – Aaron Schatz uses the idea of success rate on every play in his DVOA rankings.
- Inpredictable – Mike Beuoy takes market data and uses regression to rank teams.
- Massey Peabody – Cade Massey and Rufus Peabody use football play by play data and weight recent games more.
- Prediction Machine – Paul Bessire simulates the game 50,000 to come up with a prediction.
- Sagarin Pure Points – Jeff Sagarin, who developed his ranking algorithm back in the 80’s, uses margin of victory in games. Not modern but still useful.
- Line – the point spread from the markets.
I wrote about expected points and success rate used in DVOA in this article.