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World Series win probability for 2014

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

world_series_winprobAt the end of the regular season, I ranked baseball teams based on expected runs scored and allowed. The formula comes from Dave Smyth’s Base Runs, which on average estimates a team’s season run total within 1%.

The first number after a team gives the differential in expected runs, followed by offense and defense in parentheses. The record comes from baseball’s Pythagorean theorem with an exponent 1.83.

1. Los Angeles Angels, 131.99. (728.60, 596.61). Record: 95-67.
2. Washington, 125.88. (695.92, 570.04). Record: 95-67.
3. Oakland, 117.29. (684.77, 567.49). Record: 94-68.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers, 115.87. (737.74, 621.87). Record: 93-69.
5. Pittsburgh, 91.53. (724.80, 633.26). Record: 90-71.
6. Baltimore, 72.00. (718.53, 646.54). Record: 88-74.
7. Detroit, 59.78. (771.46, 711.68). Record: 86-76.
8. San Francisco, 52.06. (657.84, 605.78). Record: 86-75.
9. Tampa Bay, 35.93. (642.20, 606.27). Record: 85-77.
10. Seattle, 31.37. (606.33, 574.97). Record: 84-78.
11. Toronto, 28.01. (735.04, 707.04). Record: 83-79.
12. Cleveland, 22.12. (686.96, 664.84). Record: 82-79.
13. St. Louis, 16.59. (628.22, 611.63). Record: 82-80.
14. Kansas City, -4.46. (634.16, 638.61). Record: 79-82.
15. Milwaukee, -5.71. (659.09, 664.80). Record: 80-82.
16. New York Yankees, -20.64. (638.51, 659.14). Record: 78-84.
17. Chicago Cubs, -25.19. (634.64, 659.83). Record: 77-84.
18. Atlanta, -28.47. (602.24, 630.71). Record: 77-85.
19. Miami, -29.88. (662.45, 692.33). Record: 77-85.
20. Colorado, -34.93. (784.56, 819.49). Record: 77-84.
21. New York Mets, -46.29. (620.00, 666.29). Record: 75-87.
22. Houston, -49.93. (648.16, 698.10). Record: 75-87.
23. San Diego, -55.98. (539.81, 595.78). Record: 73-89.
24. Cincinnati, -58.94. (582.96, 641.90). Record: 73-89.
25. Chicago White Sox, -69.15. (670.81, 739.96). Record: 73-89.
26. Minnesota, -71.83. (700.10, 771.92). Record: 73-89.
27. Philadelphia, -72.87. (611.56, 684.42). Record: 72-90.
28. Boston, -80.61. (647.36, 727.97). Record: 72-90.
29. Arizona, -111.52. (620.73, 732.25). Record: 68-94.
30. Texas, -150.93. (629.36, 780.30). Record: 65-97.

Kansas City had a negative run differential by expected runs. They should have lost more games than they won during the regular season. Now the Royals are playing in the World Series.

San Francisco had the 4th best run differential among 5 NL playoff teams. They beat that 5th team (St. Louis) to return to the World Series.

Playoff baseball is crazy.

World Series Prediction

My numbers gives San Francisco a 53% chance to beat Kansas City in the World Series. The markets favorite a Kansas City team that has not yet lost a game in the playoffs.

Kansas City has home field because the AL won the All-Star game. If San Francisco had home field, their win probability goes up to 55%. I thought the gap would be bigger, but the 0.3 runs I use for home field advantage has a small effect on series odds.

The series win probabilities start with my MLB team rankings, which take raw run differential and adjust for strength of schedule. Also, I adjust for cluster luck based on the regular season.

In addition, the projections consider starting pitching through xFIP, an ERA type statistics that captures the skill of a pitcher through strike outs, walks and fly ball rate.

Daily predictions for each game appear on the predictions page.

Filed Under: Baseball analytics, Major League Baseball

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