THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

Check out this must read football analytics article

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Football's corner 3What is the most efficient play in football? What is the analogue of basketball’s corner 3 point shot?

This question bothered Robert Mays of Grantland, so he enlisted the help of the quants at ESPN. They found ample evidence that the play action pass is the most efficient play.

To show this, they looked at expected points. Given a down, distance to a first down and field position, expected points is the average net points of the next score.

From 1st and 10 from their own 20, the offense might score a touchdown for +7 points. The offense might also punt, which leads an opponent field goal and -3 points. Expected points averages these outcomes to assign each situation a point value.

Expected points added (EPA) is the change in expected points on a given play. This statistic acknowledges that 2 yards on 3rd and 1 is worth more than 2 yards on 1st and 10.

Mays and the ESPN quants found that the play action pass earned the highest EPA of all plays. And it wasn’t even close. Running plays lost expected points on average (-0.04 EPA), while passes averaged +0.04 EPA. The play action gained +0.17 on average, 4 times more than the typical pass.

Deception matters in football. On a play action pass, the offense fakes a run, which freezes the linebackers. This frees up space down the field for a big pass play.

In college football, I’ve also found that offenses that run the ball well like Auburn in 2013 can throw effectively on 1st and 10. The defense presumably expects a run, which makes it easier to throw for a big gain.

Moreover, the data suggests that an NFL team doesn’t need a good run game to be effective with play action. For example, Minnesota had a strong rush attack with Adrian Peterson. However, the Vikings were only 21st in play action EPA over the last 4 years.

Play action passes are pass plays, and a team needs a good quarterback to make those throws. The top teams in play action efficiency have quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning.

To check the article by Mays on football’s corner 3, click here.

The top 5 killer articles on football analytics

helmet_cover_391_289Do you want to get up to speed on football analytics? I’ve compiled 5 of my favorite articles in this free report.

To download this pdf, just sign up for my free email newsletter. (I promise, no spam. Just good content from yours truly.) Enter your email and click on “Sign up now.”








Filed Under: Football Analytics, Football Rushing Analytics, National Football League

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • Podcast: The secret edge in Super Bowl LVII between Kansas City and Philadelphia
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, February 4, 2023
  • Podcast: Hitman on NFL betting, Super Bowl LVII
  • Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member