You’re interested in which team will win the NBA playoffs.
While analytics can help, you don’t want to go blind squinting at a table of numbers. Visualization is a better way to view data.
The Power Rank has collaborated with Andrew Garcia of Chartball to make an interactive bracket with win probabilities for the NBA playoffs. Hover over a team or circle to see a team’s chance to advance through the rounds.
To play with the bracket, click here.
How to calculate win probabilities
It starts with the NBA team rankings from The Power Rank. These rankings consider margin of victory and adjust for strength of schedule.
Strength of schedule matters this year more than most, as the Western conference has dominated the East. Only two teams from the East, Miami and Indiana, crack the top ten in these final rankings after the regular season.
1. San Antonio, (62-20), 6.50
2. Oklahoma City, (59-23), 6.06
3. Los Angeles Clippers, (57-25), 5.73
4. Houston, (54-28), 4.50
5. Miami, (54-28), 4.08
6. Golden State, (51-31), 4.03
7. Portland, (54-28), 3.78
8. Indiana, (56-26), 3.34
9. Phoenix, (48-34), 3.15
10. Dallas, (49-33), 2.44
11. Toronto, (48-34), 2.39
12. Minnesota, (40-42), 2.15
13. Memphis, (50-32), 1.85
14. Chicago, (48-34), 1.76
15. Washington, (44-38), 0.64
16. Brooklyn, (44-38), -0.72
17. Atlanta, (38-44), -0.83
18. Charlotte, (43-39), -0.88
19. Denver, (36-46), -1.38
20. New York, (37-45), -1.53
21. Sacramento, (28-54), -2.10
22. New Orleans, (34-48), -2.25
23. Cleveland, (33-49), -3.12
24. Detroit, (29-53), -3.30
25. Boston, (25-57), -4.33
26. Orlando, (23-59), -4.92
27. Los Angeles Lakers, (27-55), -5.04
28. Utah, (25-57), -5.39
29. Milwaukee, (15-67), -7.87
30. Philadelphia, (19-63), -8.74
The calculation by the ranking algorithm also gives each team a rating (the number after each team’s record). The difference in the rating between two teams gives a predicted point spread. After adding a factor for home court advantage, this point spread is converted into a win probability.
Then a recursive algorithm calculates the win probabilities for a series. Multiplying these series win probabilities gives the likelihood that a team advances to later rounds.
Win probabilities for the NBA championship
This visual ranks teams by their chance of winning the NBA championship.
As the top ranked team, San Antonio has the largest probability at 27.4%. However, they must first survive a wicked Western conference. The Spurs play the Mavericks, the 10th ranked team in the entire NBA, in the first round.
Miami finished the regular season ranked 5th. However, they have the 3rd largest win probability due to a weak Eastern conference. Miami has a higher win probability than the Los Angeles Clippers despite a rating almost 2 points worse.
Indiana gets a similar benefit from playing in a weak Eastern conference.
These probabilities appear at the center of the interactive bracket. To play with the numbers, click here.
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