THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • NFL
    • College Football
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
    • College Basketball
    • NBA
    • CFB yards per play
    • World Soccer/Football
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
    • COVID-19 Policy
  • Log in

The odds for the 2014 Big Ten Tourney

By Dr. Ed Feng 1 Comment

My buddy Mark Elsesser tweeted me yesterday about whether Nebraska at 16 to 1 odds to win the Big Tourney had value.

Nebraska has been hot lately, with wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin towards the end of the conference schedule. However, my rankings, which consider all games from the season, only rank them as the 8th best Big Ten team.

I calculated the win probability for the Big Ten tourney, which starts in a few hours.

1. Wisconsin, 22.6%
2. Michigan, 20.1%
3. Michigan State, 17.7%
4. Ohio State, 13.7%
5. Iowa, 10.6%
6. Nebraska, 5.5%
7. Minnesota, 3.1%
8. Indiana, 2.9%
9. Illinois, 1.9%
10. Penn State, 0.9%
11. Purdue, 0.8%
12. Northwestern, 0.2%

Nebraska has the benefit of a first round bye, making the 8th best team have the 6th highest win probability.

The Vegas odds of 16 to 1 equates to a 5.8% win probability, which is consistent with my calculation of 5.5%.

Overall, the tourney looks wide open. Five teams have a greater than 10% chance to win.

Filed Under: Basketball analytics, College Basketball, Nebraska Cornhuskers

Comments

  1. Jon says

    March 13, 2014 at 1:40 pm

    Ed –

    Do you predict individual baseball games throughout the baseball season?

    Do you have summary stats on how you preformed this basketball season?

    Thank you,

    Jon

    Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Predictions from Ed Feng

I use my Stanford Ph.D. in applied math to make football and March Madness predictions.

To get a sample of my best American football predictions and March Madness cheat sheet, sign up for my free email newsletter.

Enter your email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches

Recent Articles

  • Podcast: Drew Dinsick on Predicting NFL Conference Championship Games
  • Members: Football analysis for NFL Conference Championship, 2020 season
  • Podcast: Chris Andrews on Predicting the NFL Divisional Playoff
  • Members: Football analysis for NFL Divisional Playoff, January 16-17, 2021
  • Podcast: Fabian Sommer on Predicting the NFL Wild Card Playoff

© 2021 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Get a sample of my best football predictions

While I usually save my best predictions for paying members of the site, I offer a sample in my weekly email newsletter.


To get this service, sign up for my free email newsletter.


Enter your email and click on "Sign up now!"

No thanks, I'll make predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • NFL
    • College Football
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
    • College Basketball
    • NBA
    • CFB yards per play
    • World Soccer/Football
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
    • COVID-19 Policy