My buddy Mark Elsesser tweeted me yesterday about whether Nebraska at 16 to 1 odds to win the Big Tourney had value.
Nebraska has been hot lately, with wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin towards the end of the conference schedule. However, my rankings, which consider all games from the season, only rank them as the 8th best Big Ten team.
I calculated the win probability for the Big Ten tourney, which starts in a few hours.
1. Wisconsin, 22.6%
2. Michigan, 20.1%
3. Michigan State, 17.7%
4. Ohio State, 13.7%
5. Iowa, 10.6%
6. Nebraska, 5.5%
7. Minnesota, 3.1%
8. Indiana, 2.9%
9. Illinois, 1.9%
10. Penn State, 0.9%
11. Purdue, 0.8%
12. Northwestern, 0.2%
Nebraska has the benefit of a first round bye, making the 8th best team have the 6th highest win probability.
The Vegas odds of 16 to 1 equates to a 5.8% win probability, which is consistent with my calculation of 5.5%.
Overall, the tourney looks wide open. Five teams have a greater than 10% chance to win.