But sometimes they get it wrong.
This year, they accepted the talk “Identifying an accurate metric for football efficiency”. Tim Chou, a football coach, discovered yards per point as the new way to evaluate football teams.
There are many problems with this premise.
First, yards per point is not a new concept. Phil Steele, who publishes a yearly preseason magazine, has been writing about it for years.
Second, yards per point is not a good metric for football. Randomness plays a big role in its value, mostly due to turnovers. Phil Steele uses it as a metric to determine teams that got lucky the previous season.
Over at Bill Connelly’s Football Study Hall, I discuss the problems with yards per point as a football efficiency metric. Kansas State’s offense from last season is a perfect example of these problems. To read the article, click here.
After seeing this article, Jeff Fogle at Stat Intelligence wrote a post in which he remembers questioning yards per point back in 1986. This is neither a new or particularly useful concept.