Nature vs Nurture: The Odds of Playing College Basketball

You may have wondered how much nature matters in playing college basketball. For example, Michigan will feature Tim Hardaway Jr., Glenn Robinson III, and Jon Horford against Kansas in their Sweet Sixteen game tonight. All three players had fathers who played in the NBA.

In addition, Duke benefits from the shooting of Seth Curry, who most likely learned his soft touch from his father. Dell Curry played 17 season in the NBA. The list of current college players with NBA genetics extends from Juwan Howard Jr. at Detroit to Shawn Kemp Jr. at Washington.

How much more likely are you to play in Division I college basketball if your dad played in the NBA? Jon Wertheim of Sports Illustrated proposed this question to me. We dug into the numbers to find out.

The odds of playing college basketball

There are 347 Division I college basketball teams. Each team offers 13 scholarships. Hence, there are about 4,511 Division I college basketball players this year.

How does this compare with the pool of young men that could potentially play? There are 1.5 million young men that graduate from high school each year. Since anyone who graduated over the past 4 years could play on a current college team, this gives a pool of 6 million young men that could potentially play college basketball.

With 4,511 rosters spots from a pool of 6 million, there is a 1 in 1330 chance that a typical high school graduate plays college basketball.

The odds of playing college basketball if your dad played in the NBA

To determine the number of current college players with a father that played in the NBA, we simply count all the players. These 22 players are listed below. Clearly, this is an underestimate, as we might have missed some players. In fact, Jon and I missed Glenn Robinson III, one of the most well known players, in our first run through this list.

We also need the total number of college aged men with fathers that played in the NBA. Finding this number requires knowing the number of boys fathered by NBA players between 1990 and 1994. With the social habits of NBA stars, this is impossible.

However, we can make an educated guess about the number of college aged men with fathers who played in the NBA. Wikipedia lists a total of 4,699 players in the history of the NBA. Let’s assume that 1 in 10 of these players had a child between 1990 and 1994, giving a pool of 470 college aged young men.

Now, let’s be honest. 470 is an absurd overestimate. In 1990, the NBA only had 324 players total. However, that’s part of our strategy. We underestimate the actual number of college players but overestimate the pool of young men. This gives us a lower bound on the odds that a child of an NBA players makes a college basketball team. With 22 players from a pool of 470, the odds are 1 in 21, significantly higher than the population at large. The real odds could be as high as 1 in 10.

With these odds, you are at least 62 times more likely to play college basketball if your father played in the NBA.

Genetics makes it at least 62 times more likely to play college basketball

This number is astounding. To put this in perspective, our analysis was sent to a professor in population statistics from a prestigious west coast university. Along with some minor edits, he told us about the following result from his research.

Calculations I published in 1988 indicate that the average American male is about 12 percent more likely to pursue his father’s occupation than any other. The probability was somewhat higher for highly skilled professions.

If your father was a computer programmer, you are more than a 1.12 times more likely to become a computer programmer. For playing basketball, the factor is at least 62.

Clearly, genetics matter, from height to quickness to vertical jump. Of course, these young men grew up in families seeped in basketball. Their fathers most likely taught them the skills they need to make it to the college level.

List of current college players

Please let us know if we’re missing a player with a father who played in the NBA. I just added Ohio State’s Shannon Scott last night while watching their Sweet Sixteen game against Arizona.

• Tim Hardaway Jr. (father Tim Hardaway), Michigan.
• Glenn Robinson III (father Glenn Robinson), Michigan
• Jon Horford (father Tito Horford), Michigan
• David Stockton (father John Stockton), Gonzaga
• Alex Murphy (father Jay Murphy), Florida
• Erik Murphy (father Jay Murphy), Florida
• Seth Curry (father Dell Curry), Duke
• Traevon Jackson (father Jim Jackson), Wisconsin
• Shannon Scott (father Charlie Scott), Ohio State
• Phil Pressey (father Paul Pressey), Missouri
• Antoine Mason (father Anthony Mason), Niagara
• Ledrick Eackles (father Ledell Eackles), Oakland
• Austin Hollins (father Lionel Hollins, coach of Memphis Grizzlies), Minnesota
• Juwan Howard Jr. (father Juwan Howard), Detroit
• Nick Kellogg (father Clark Kellogg), Ohio
• Shawn Kemp Jr. (father Shawn Kemp), Washington
• Ricky Kreklow (father Wayne Kreklow), California
• Tyler Les (father Jim Les), UC Davis
• Dwayne Polee II (father Dwayne Polee), San Diego State
• John Wilkins (father Jeff Wilkins), Illinois State
• Renaldo Woolridge (father Orlando Woolridge), USC
• Sam Cassell Jr. (father Sam Cassell), Chipola Junior College, ineligible at Maryland

Thanks for reading.

Crowd Sourcing for More College Players

Of course we didn’t get all college basketball players during the 2012-2013 season with a father who played in the NBA. These are additional players pointed out by our readers in the comments.

• Madut Bol (father Manute Bol), Southern. Thanks, Curtis.
• Nick Wiggins (father Mitchell Wiggins), Wichita State. Thanks, Josh on Twitter.
• Roy Devyn Marble (father Roy Marble). Thanks, Aditya.
• Larry Nance Jr (father Larry Nance). Thanks, Ed.