The preseason rankings give each team a rating. These ratings imply a win probability for each game this season. Adding up these probabilities for a team gives an expected number of wins.
The win totals for all 125 teams are listed below.
Uncertainty
It’s not enough to just know the number of expected wins. With the short season in college football, it’s also relevant to know the uncertainty in this number.
This uncertainty is quantified by a standard deviation. For example, Oregon has a standard deviation of 1.2. This means there is a 2 in 3 chance that Oregon’s win total will be between 11.3 and 8.9.
The best and worst teams will have the smallest uncertainty, similar to the 1.2 wins for Oregon. Teams expected to win half their games have the highest uncertainty. For example, Kansas State is expected to win 6.8 games with a standard deviation of 1.6.
For the following teams, the expected wins in The Power Rank differ most from the odds makers at Bovada.
Ohio State
The Power Rank: 8.8 wins. Odds makers: 11 wins.
The Buckeyes are ranked 2nd in the AP and Coaches poll. The Buckeyes have an easy schedule. But my calculations still say less than 9 wins.
Ohio State won a lot of close games last season, and some came against lesser teams such as UAB. They finished 14th in The Power Rank, very far from elite teams like Alabama and Oregon.
And it’s difficult to imagine a jump to elite status this season. QB Braxton Miller is an incredible runner but shaky passer. The defense loses all but one starter in the front seven.
Ohio State will get tested at Michigan, at home against Wisconsin and at Northwestern. Even if they win two of these games, expect them drop at least another game along the way.
Boise State
The Power Rank: 8.0 wins. Odds makers: 10 wins.
After an incredible run to national prominence led by QB Kellen Moore, the Broncos are in year two of their rebuilding project. My preseason rankings have them 27th, good but not great.
While Boise State used to cruise through an easy WAC schedule, they found conference play more difficult in the Mountain West last season. Moreover, they play their best opponents on the road this season. My predictions give Boise State less than a 50% chance when traveling to Washington, BYU, Fresno State and Utah State. The Broncos only have a 53% chance of winning at San Diego State.
These five games alone should put the Broncos below 10 wins.
Florida State
The Power Rank: 8.4 wins. Odds makers: 10.5.
The Seminoles were fantastic last season. They had the 10th best offense and 4th best defense by adjusted yards per play. Had they not fallen apart in the 4th quarter at North Carolina State and Florida, they would have finally dropped the underachiever label.
The problem is that Florida State only returns 11 starters. This lack of experience drops them from a top 10 team to 20th in my preseason rankings.
Florida State will get tested the first Monday night of the season at Pittsburgh. They will not be favored on the road at Clemson and Florida and will probably drop another game along the way.
Florida Atlantic
The Power Rank: 4.7 wins. Odds makers: 3.5 wins.
Let’s get one thing straight. I’m not expecting much from Carl Pellini’s team. The Owls are 111th in my preseason rankings and must replace their QB and most of the offensive line.
But the schedule is favorable for Florida Atlantic. It starts with a home game against New Mexico State they should win. Then in conference, Florida International, Tulane and Marshall all travel to Boca Raton this season. Florida Atlantic will be favored in each of these 4 games and can expect to win 2 or 3 of them.
The Owls will also have a greater than 40% chance at Southern Miss, UAB and home against Middle Tennessee. Overall, I’m expecting almost 5 wins for Florida Atlantic with their schedule, much higher than the 3.5 of the odds makers.
Florida International
The Power Rank: 4.7 wins. Odds makers: 3 wins.
The bad news is Florida International will be terrible (105th in preseason rankings). The good news is that they play in a terrible division, Conference USA East.
Florida International has a very probable win against FCS Bethune-Cookman (78%).
They won’t be favored in any other games, but the Panthers have a better than 40% chance against UAB, Marshall, at Florida Atlantic and at UTEP. Then there are 4 more games in which Florida International will have better than 1 in 3 chance of winning.
All told, the Panther could total 5 wins with all the bad teams in Conference USA. It’s unlikely they’ll win less than 3.
Syracuse
The Power Rank: 7.1 wins. Odds makers: 4.5.
There are many reasons why I might have Syracuse ranked too high at 47th. They lose QB Ryan Nassib, their two top receivers, and two starters on an excellent offensive line. They will struggle to be the 22nd ranked offense again this season. Syracuse also loses three starters from the defensive line and coach Doug Marrone to the Buffalo Bills.
But the schedules suggests they will win at least 5 games. The Orange have home games against Wagner (39th FCS school in 2012) and Tulane which they should win. Unless something drastic happens to Wake Forest and Boston College, Syracuse should also win home games with these ACC opponents. Last, they have a 65% chance to beat a struggling Maryland program on the road.
Beyond that, a neutral site game with Penn State, a home game with Pittsburgh and road games at Northwestern and North Carolina State are all winable games. Even if Syracuse is overrated by 3 points, the win probabilities will change from 50% to 43%. The Orange should still win at least one of these games.
Toledo
The Power Rank: 6.2 wins. Odds makers: 8.5 wins.
Toledo returns 9 starters from an offense that finished 58th last season. This unit could set MAC records. Conversely, Toledo has 4 starters back on a terrible defense that ranked 112th. How much worse can you get than that?
Overall, their rank at 78th in the nation and 3rd in the MAC seems about right. They should win 3 out of 4 games against Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Buffalo and at Akron. But their schedule has 5 more games that will be close, 50-50 affairs. This includes a home game against Eastern Washington, the 7th ranked FCS team from 2012 (60% win probability).
Nine wins seems like a stretch for a team with many questions on defense.
Louisville
The Power Rank: 8.5 wins. Odds makers: 10.5 wins.
QB Teddy Bridgewater is legit. The rising junior completed almost 69% of his passes last season. The pass offense was ranked 11th despite nagging injuries that made Bridgewater ineffective against Connecticut and Rutgers.
But Louisville is seriously overrated after beating Florida in the Sugar Bowl last season. While the polls have them as a top 10 team, The Power Rank thinks 33rd is more appropriate. Their defense finished 57th last season, and those 10 returning starters will have to improve drastically to make Louisville a top ten team.
The schedule seems to favor many wins for Louisville, but let’s look at their toughest games. They will be an underdog at Cincinnati in the last game of the season, and they have about a 62% of beating Kentucky, Connecticut and South Florida on the road. Already, this totals 1.7 expected losses in 12 games.
Louisville will probably drop another game along the way, probably at Temple. 11 wins is just too many for this team.
Georgia
The Power Rank: 8.0 wins. Odds makers: 9.5 wins.
Georgia has 9 starters back on an offense that finished 3rd in the nation in adjusted yards per play. They should be best offense in the nation. However, they only only return 3 starters on a defense that finished 20th in the nation. This unit will probably regress to the mean.
No one should dispute that Georgia is a top 10 this year. My preseason rankings have them at 6th. But the SEC is the best conference in college football, and Georgia opens the non-conference schedule at Clemson (19th in preseason rankings). The odds say that Georgia has a 52% chance of escaping their week 1 shoot out with a win.
However, then South Carolina comes to town the next week, followed by LSU two weeks later. Along with their annual neutral site game with Florida, Georgia has only slightly better than even odds to win each game. Expect two losses in these 4 games.
Georgia also travels to Tennessee, Auburn, Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech this season. While the Bulldogs have greater than a 60% chance to win each of these games, expect them to lose one of these games. This puts them at 9 wins at most on the season.
Here are the 125 teams ranked by expected wins. The links go to the team pages available only to members.
I didn’t have a rating for Abilene Christian, so I gave New Mexico State a 75% chance of beating them. Please adjust this number as you see fit.
1. Alabama, 10.12.
2. Oregon, 10.11.
3. Ohio State, 8.83.
4. Texas A&M, 8.73.
5. Cincinnati, 8.71.
6. Utah State, 8.68.
7. Wisconsin, 8.66.
8. USC, 8.63.
9. Stanford, 8.52.
10. Florida State, 8.47.
11. Fresno State, 8.44.
12. Northern Illinois, 8.43.
13. Clemson, 8.40.
14. Louisville, 8.38.
15. Louisiana Tech, 8.35.
16. South Carolina, 8.17.
17. Nebraska, 8.15.
18. Georgia, 8.09.
19. Boise State, 8.08.
20. Oklahoma State, 8.08.
21. Bowling Green, 7.98.
22. LSU, 7.93.
23. Florida, 7.88.
24. Arkansas State, 7.87.
25. Arizona, 7.86.
26. Texas, 7.85.
27. Michigan State, 7.81.
28. TCU, 7.78.
29. Miami (FL), 7.67.
30. Notre Dame, 7.63.
31. Oregon State, 7.60.
32. Ohio, 7.55.
33. Oklahoma, 7.52.
34. Mississippi, 7.48.
35. Brigham Young, 7.42.
36. Baylor, 7.35.
37. San Jose State, 7.34.
38. Louisiana Lafayette, 7.27.
39. Michigan, 7.26.
40. Georgia Tech, 7.06.
41. North Carolina, 7.05.
42. San Diego State, 7.04.
43. Virginia Tech, 7.03.
44. Penn State, 6.98.
45. Syracuse, 6.95.
46. Louisiana Monroe, 6.88.
47. Pittsburgh, 6.87.
48. Kansas State, 6.87.
49. UCF, 6.86.
50. Tulsa, 6.86.
51. Middle Tennessee State, 6.80.
52. East Carolina, 6.79.
53. Ball State, 6.72.
54. Arizona State, 6.70.
55. Western Kentucky, 6.67.
56. Washington, 6.65.
57. Rice, 6.58.
58. North Carolina State, 6.55.
59. Texas State, 6.50.
60. Northwestern, 6.46.
61. Rutgers, 6.44.
62. Connecticut, 6.43.
63. Texas Tech, 6.41.
64. Vanderbilt, 6.40.
65. Missouri, 6.40.
66. Toledo, 6.25.
67. Troy, 6.19.
68. Marshall, 6.15.
69. Auburn, 6.13.
70. Tennessee, 6.13.
71. West Virginia, 6.10.
72. UCLA, 6.03.
73. Air Force, 5.98.
74. North Texas, 5.90.
75. Houston, 5.89.
76. Minnesota, 5.86.
77. South Florida, 5.85.
78. Temple, 5.79.
79. Navy, 5.75.
80. Nevada, 5.73.
81. Kent State, 5.71.
82. Buffalo, 5.65.
83. Indiana, 5.65.
84. Colorado State, 5.62.
85. Iowa, 5.60.
86. Arkansas, 5.56.
87. Western Michigan, 5.56.
88. Duke, 5.46.
89. UAB, 5.41.
90. Central Michigan, 5.32.
91. Utah, 5.22.
92. Virginia, 5.21.
93. Mississippi State, 5.18.
94. SMU, 5.09.
95. UTEP, 5.07.
96. Boston College, 5.07.
97. Purdue, 4.98.
98. Kentucky, 4.97.
99. Iowa State, 4.96.
100. Wyoming, 4.91.
101. UNLV, 4.88.
102. South Alabama, 4.84.
103. Maryland, 4.81.
104. Army, 4.77.
105. Florida International, 4.75.
106. Florida Atlantic, 4.69.
107. Miami (OH), 4.66.
108. Southern Miss, 4.65.
109. UTSA, 4.65.
110. Wake Forest, 4.61.
111. Tulane, 4.52.
112. California, 4.49.
113. Washington State, 4.47.
114. New Mexico State, 3.81.
115. Eastern Michigan, 3.65.
116. Akron, 3.48.
117. Memphis, 3.39.
118. Hawaii, 3.31.
119. Illinois, 3.28.
120. New Mexico, 3.18.
121. Kansas, 3.15.
122. Colorado, 2.94.
123. Idaho, 2.76.
124. Massachusetts, 2.74.
125. Georgia State, 1.71.