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Predictions for the first 32 games of the NCAA Tournament

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

For a more visual, interactive way of seeing these numbers, check out our bracket with all 416 win probabilities for the entire tournament.

Western Kentucky (188) will beat Mississippi Valley State (233) by 2.6 at a neutral site. Mississippi Valley State has a 42% chance of beating Western Kentucky.

Iona (49) will beat Brigham Young (57) by 0.7 at a neutral site. Brigham Young has a 48% chance of beating Iona.

California (38) will beat South Florida (71) by 2.9 at a neutral site. South Florida has a 41% chance of beating California.

Lamar (108) will beat Vermont (136) by 1.6 at a neutral site. Vermont has a 45% chance of beating Lamar.

Iowa State (35) will beat Connecticut (40) by 0.4 at a neutral site. Connecticut has a 49% chance of beating Iowa State.

Wichita State (8) will beat VCU (52) by 6.3 at a neutral site. VCU has a 31% chance of beating Wichita State.

Indiana (9) will beat New Mexico State (54) by 6.0 at a neutral site. New Mexico State has a 31% chance of beating Indiana.

UNLV (25) will beat Colorado (90) by 6.0 at a neutral site. Colorado has a 31% chance of beating UNLV.

Baylor (19) will beat South Dakota State (56) by 4.5 at a neutral site. South Dakota State has a 36% chance of beating Baylor.

Notre Dame (41) will beat Xavier (50) by 0.8 at a neutral site. Xavier has a 47% chance of beating Notre Dame.

Duke (11) will beat Lehigh (66) by 6.2 at a neutral site. Lehigh has a 31% chance of beating Duke.

Michigan State (3) will beat Long Island (141) by 15.9 at a neutral site. Long Island has a 11% chance of beating Michigan State.

Memphis (14) will beat Saint Louis (20) by 0.8 at a neutral site. Saint Louis has a 47% chance of beating Memphis.

New Mexico (12) will beat Long Beach State (33) by 3.1 at a neutral site. Long Beach State has a 40% chance of beating New Mexico.

Louisville (15) will beat Davidson (47) by 4.6 at a neutral site. Davidson has a 35% chance of beating Louisville.

Murray State (22) will beat Colorado State (93) by 6.9 at a neutral site. Colorado State has a 29% chance of beating Murray State.

Florida (17) will beat Virginia (30) by 2.0 at a neutral site. Virginia has a 43% chance of beating Florida.

Missouri (5) will beat Norfolk State (176) by 16.4 at a neutral site. Norfolk State has a 10% chance of beating Missouri.

Syracuse (7) will beat North Carolina Asheville (119) by 12.3 at a neutral site. North Carolina Asheville has a 17% chance of beating Syracuse.

Kansas State (24) will beat Southern Miss (65) by 4.2 at a neutral site. Southern Miss has a 37% chance of beating Kansas State.

Vanderbilt (13) will beat Harvard (42) by 4.4 at a neutral site. Harvard has a 36% chance of beating Vanderbilt.

Wisconsin (10) will beat Montana (106) by 9.5 at a neutral site. Montana has a 22% chance of beating Wisconsin.

Cincinnati (34) will beat Texas (36) by 0.3 at a neutral site. Texas has a 49% chance of beating Cincinnati.

Florida State (21) will beat St. Bonaventure (69) by 5.3 at a neutral site. St. Bonaventure has a 33% chance of beating Florida State.

Gonzaga (26) will beat West Virginia (37) by 1.2 at a neutral site. West Virginia has a 46% chance of beating Gonzaga.

Ohio State (2) will beat Loyola (MD) (132) by 15.6 at a neutral site. Loyola (MD) has a 11% chance of beating Ohio State.

Creighton (27) will beat Alabama (28) by 0.1 at a neutral site. Alabama has a 50% chance of beating Creighton.

Michigan (23) will beat Ohio (48) by 3.3 at a neutral site. Ohio has a 39% chance of beating Michigan.

San Diego State (46) will beat North Carolina State (55) by 0.5 at a neutral site. North Carolina State has a 48% chance of beating San Diego State.

Georgetown (18) will beat Belmont (29) by 1.7 at a neutral site. Belmont has a 44% chance of beating Georgetown.

St. Mary’s (31) will beat Purdue (39) by 0.7 at a neutral site. Purdue has a 48% chance of beating St. Mary’s.

Kansas (6) will beat Detroit (116) by 12.9 at a neutral site. Detroit has a 16% chance of beating Kansas.

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Related Posts:

—About The Power Rank.
—Interactive bracket for NCAA Tournament.
—College basketball rankings.

Filed Under: 2012 NCAA Tournament, Basketball analytics, College Basketball

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  • About
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