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College Football Bowl Predictions, 2011-2012

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Here’s an early look at the bowl games using our team rankings. The games will be competitive, as only two games have a predicted margin of victory greater than 10. Also, the rankings will change by the time LSU and Alabama take the field on January 9th, so we’ll update these predictions accordingly. Look for previews of individual games in the coming weeks.

LSU (1) will beat Alabama (2) by 4.0 at a neutral site. Alabama has a 41% chance of beating LSU.

Oklahoma State (3) will beat Stanford (6) by 4.9 at a neutral site. Stanford has a 39% chance of beating Oklahoma State.

Oregon (4) will beat Wisconsin (5) by 2.9 at a neutral site. Wisconsin has a 43% chance of beating Oregon.

Oklahoma (7) will beat Iowa (33) by 11.0 at a neutral site. Iowa has a 26% chance of beating Oklahoma.

Boise State (8) will beat Arizona State (18) by 5.9 at a neutral site. Arizona State has a 37% chance of beating Boise State.

Michigan State (10) will beat Georgia (23) by 5.6 at a neutral site. Georgia has a 37% chance of beating Michigan State.

Michigan (11) will beat Virginia Tech (32) by 8.5 at a neutral site. Virginia Tech has a 31% chance of beating Michigan.

Arkansas (12) will beat Kansas State (17) by 3.5 at a neutral site. Kansas State has a 42% chance of beating Arkansas.

Texas A&M (13) will beat Northwestern (53) by 11.5 at a neutral site. Northwestern has a 25% chance of beating Texas A&M.

TCU (14) will beat Louisiana Tech (40) by 7.9 at a neutral site. Louisiana Tech has a 32% chance of beating TCU.

Notre Dame (15) will beat Florida State (24) by 2.2 at a neutral site. Florida State has a 45% chance of beating Notre Dame.

Baylor (16) will beat Washington (46) by 8.0 at a neutral site. Washington has a 32% chance of beating Baylor.

Missouri (19) will beat North Carolina (49) by 8.1 at a neutral site. North Carolina has a 32% chance of beating Missouri.

Nebraska (20) will beat South Carolina (21) by 0.1 at a neutral site. South Carolina has a 50% chance of beating Nebraska.

Houston (22) will beat Penn State (31) by 3.1 at a neutral site. Penn State has a 43% chance of beating Houston.

Southern Miss (25) will beat Nevada (65) by 9.8 at a neutral site. Nevada has a 28% chance of beating Southern Miss.

California (26) will beat Texas (28) by 0.3 at a neutral site. Texas has a 49% chance of beating California.

Ohio State (27) will beat Florida (39) by 3.9 at a neutral site. Florida has a 41% chance of beating Ohio State.

Mississippi State (29) will beat Wake Forest (67) by 8.5 at a neutral site. Wake Forest has a 31% chance of beating Mississippi State.

Clemson (30) will beat West Virginia (36) by 2.2 at a neutral site. West Virginia has a 45% chance of beating Clemson.

Utah (35) will beat Georgia Tech (48) by 3.0 at a neutral site. Georgia Tech has a 43% chance of beating Utah.

Iowa State (37) will beat Rutgers (43) by 1.7 at a neutral site. Rutgers has a 46% chance of beating Iowa State.

Cincinnati (38) will beat Vanderbilt (41) by 0.6 at a neutral site. Vanderbilt has a 48% chance of beating Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh (42) will beat SMU (77) by 5.7 at a neutral site. SMU has a 37% chance of beating Pittsburgh.

Brigham Young (44) will beat Tulsa (59) by 2.8 at a neutral site. Tulsa has a 44% chance of beating Brigham Young.

Toledo (45) will beat Air Force (76) by 5.3 at a neutral site. Air Force has a 38% chance of beating Toledo.

Illinois (47) will beat UCLA (55) by 0.9 at a neutral site. UCLA has a 48% chance of beating Illinois.

Louisville (52) will beat North Carolina State (58) by 1.3 at a neutral site. North Carolina State has a 47% chance of beating Louisville.

Auburn (54) will beat Virginia (61) by 1.7 at a neutral site. Virginia has a 46% chance of beating Auburn.

Arkansas State (60) will beat Northern Illinois (66) by 1.5 at a neutral site. Northern Illinois has a 46% chance of beating Arkansas State.

San Diego State (63) will beat Louisiana Lafayette (84) by 4.0 at a neutral site. Louisiana Lafayette has a 41% chance of beating San Diego State.

Temple (64) will beat Wyoming (85) by 4.3 at a neutral site. Wyoming has a 40% chance of beating Temple.

Utah State (71) will beat Ohio (82) by 2.0 at a neutral site. Ohio has a 45% chance of beating Utah State.

Western Michigan (73) will beat Purdue (74) by 0.0 at a neutral site. Purdue has a 50% chance of beating Western Michigan.

Florida International (80) will beat Marshall (91) by 3.8 at a neutral site. Marshall has a 41% chance of beating Florida International.

For the most recent predictions right up until game time, find The Power Rank on Twitter.

Related Posts:

—About The Power Rank.
—Ranking college football bowl games: a viewer’s guide.
—College football’s incredibly slow progress towards a playoff.
—3 types of college football coaches that got fired.
—The Power Rank featured on KALX Spectrum, the science and technology show on UC Berkeley student radio.

Filed Under: College Football, College Football 2011, College Football Analytics, Football Analytics, Sports Wagering

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