Oregon (7) will beat California (38) by 17.8 at home

Last year, Oregon traveled to Berkeley and barely escaped with a 15-13 win. Oregon fans will remember Cal’s defense faking injuries to slow down the Ducks’ attack. Later last season, Cal defensive line coach Tosh Lupoi was suspended for telling a player to fake that injury. But this only slightly tarnishes the fact that Cal held Oregon to 2.9 yards per carry last year. Cal’s defense continues to look good this year, holding Washington’s Chris Polk to 3.0 yards per carry (60 total) last weekend. So Oregon will need quarterback Darron Thomas to have a good game throwing the football. Our primary rankings say Oregon by 18 while rankings using only this year’s game say Oregon by 19. Both estimates are far below the line, which favors Oregon by 24. Cal has a 16% chance of pulling off the upset on the road, an unlikely but not altogether an impossible result.