College Football Predictions, October 8, 2011

Oklahoma (6) will beat Texas (37) by 15.9 at a neutral site. Texas has a 0.18 chance of beating Oklahoma. Here we go again, trying to peer into the magic ball and forecasting the strength of this Texas team. While we were doubtful a few weeks ago after their win over UCLA, Texas thumped Iowa State 37-14 on the road last week. However, Texas had a +3 turnover margin and blocked a punt for a touchdown. As for Oklahoma, the last time they played a quality opponent the defense allowed Missouri quarterback James Franklin to throw for 8.8 yards per attempt while running back Henry Josey racked up 9.5 yards per carry, including a 48 yard touchdown run. So there’s an opportunity for the Texas offense to shine against what seems like a tough defense. In our rankings that only include games from this year, Oklahoma is favored by 9.3 over Texas at a neutral site, not much different from the 10.5 point line that favors Oklahoma.

LSU (5) will beat Florida (25) by 17.1 at home. Florida has a 0.17 chance of beating LSU. On the first play from scrimmage against Alabama, Florida quarterback John Brantley threw a 65 yard touchdown pass. The Gators gained 165 yards the rest of the game, including a rushing attack that had 0.5 yards per carry (29 total). Florida’s offensive performance against LSU will be an interesting measuring stick between the two of the best defenses in the country. Last year, LSU and coach Les Miles needed a perfect bounce on a fake field goal to sustain a game winning drive and pull out a 33-29 win at Florida. Moreover, LSU is probably a bit overrated in the rankings due to large turnover margins in their games against Oregon and West Virginia. So the line which favors LSU by 13.5 is probably pretty accurate, if not too high. Florida has a 0.22 chance of pulling the upset in Baton Rouge.

Auburn (8) will beat Arkansas (10) by 1.0 on the road. Arkansas has a 0.48 chance of beating Auburn. Our early season rankings that use a one year window of games probably doesn’t truly reflect this Auburn team. Using only games this year, Auburn is ranked 31st with a 6.42 rating instead of 8th with a 17.92 rating. The former is probably more accurate, although Auburn’s defense seemed to wake up last weekend in their win at South Carolina. The rankings with only this year’s games predicts Arkansas by 12.0, which implies Auburn has a 0.25 chance of pulling the upset.

Rice (113) will beat Memphis (120) by 16.7 at home. Memphis has a 0.17 chance of beating Rice. The line favors Rice at home by 20.5? This line says more about the weakness of Memphis (4 touchdowns worse than the average team) that any kind of strength for Rice (2 touchdowns worse than the average team). Here’s hoping that the algorithm is wrong and my alma mater covers.

Nebraska (17) will beat Ohio State (22) by 4.8 at home. Ohio State has a 0.39 chance of beating Nebraska. Ohio State is becoming a case study in what can happen to a team when it loses a top notch coach. Over the last 6 years, Jim Tressel never led Ohio State to a final season rating lower than 13.7. A 13.7 rating this year would put them at 11th. Instead, Ohio State is 59th with a -0.45 rating using only games this year. Their offense was difficult to watch in the 4th quarter against Michigan State last weekend. Nebraska is predicted to win by more than 10.0 by the line and our rankings that only use games this year.

Boise State (1) will beat Fresno State (80) by 25.5 on the road. Fresno State has a 0.08 chance of beating Boise State.

Alabama (3) will beat Vanderbilt (85) by 31.0 at home. Vanderbilt has a 0.05 chance of beating Alabama.

Stanford (4) will beat Colorado (83) by 29.7 at home. Colorado has a 0.06 chance of beating Stanford.

Oregon (7) will beat California (38) by 17.8 at home. California has a 0.16 chance of beating Oregon. Check out our preview.

Oklahoma State (9) will beat Kansas (98) by 31.1 at home. Kansas has a 0.05 chance of beating Oklahoma State.

Texas A&M (11) will beat Texas Tech (40) by 6.3 on the road. Texas Tech has a 0.36 chance of beating Texas A&M.

TCU (12) will beat San Diego State (45) by 7.0 on the road. San Diego State has a 0.34 chance of beating TCU.

Clemson (13) will beat Boston College (73) by 19.1 at home. Boston College has a 0.14 chance of beating Clemson.

Missouri (14) will beat Kansas State (49) by 6.8 on the road. Kansas State has a 0.35 chance of beating Missouri.

South Carolina (15) will beat Kentucky (68) by 17.2 at home. Kentucky has a 0.17 chance of beating South Carolina.

Arizona State (16) will beat Utah (46) by 6.2 on the road. Utah has a 0.36 chance of beating Arizona State.

Florida State (18) will beat Wake Forest (84) by 12.9 on the road. Wake Forest has a 0.23 chance of beating Florida State.

Georgia (19) will beat Tennessee (43) by 3.7 on the road. Tennessee has a 0.41 chance of beating Georgia.

Notre Dame (20) will beat Air Force (53) by 11.9 at home. Air Force has a 0.25 chance of beating Notre Dame.

Iowa (21) will beat Penn State (52) by 5.1 on the road. Penn State has a 0.38 chance of beating Iowa.

Virginia Tech (23) will beat Miami (FL) (41) by 8.1 at home. Miami (FL) has a 0.32 chance of beating Virginia Tech.

Pittsburgh (24) will beat Rutgers (75) by 8.3 on the road. Rutgers has a 0.32 chance of beating Pittsburgh.

Mississippi State (26) will beat UAB (103) by 16.4 on the road. UAB has a 0.18 chance of beating Mississippi State.

Illinois (27) will beat Indiana (100) by 15.5 on the road. Indiana has a 0.19 chance of beating Illinois.

West Virginia (29) will beat Connecticut (66) by 10.6 at home. Connecticut has a 0.27 chance of beating West Virginia.

Nevada (31) will beat UNLV (109) by 22.7 at home. UNLV has a 0.11 chance of beating Nevada.

Navy (32) will beat Southern Miss (64) by 9.7 at home. Southern Miss has a 0.29 chance of beating Navy.

Georgia Tech (33) will beat Maryland (60) by 8.5 at home. Maryland has a 0.31 chance of beating Georgia Tech.

Michigan (34) will beat Northwestern (70) by 4.7 on the road. Northwestern has a 0.39 chance of beating Michigan.

UCF (35) will beat Marshall (94) by 16.8 at home. Marshall has a 0.17 chance of beating UCF.

North Carolina (42) will beat Louisville (67) by 8.0 at home. Louisville has a 0.32 chance of beating North Carolina.

Baylor (47) will beat Iowa State (76) by 9.1 at home. Iowa State has a 0.30 chance of beating Baylor.

North Carolina State (48) will beat Central Michigan (96) by 16.6 at home. Central Michigan has a 0.17 chance of beating North Carolina State.

Western Michigan (55) will beat Bowling Green (101) by 15.3 at home. Bowling Green has a 0.19 chance of beating Western Michigan.

Toledo (57) will beat Eastern Michigan (117) by 25.4 at home. Eastern Michigan has a 0.08 chance of beating Toledo.

Northern Illinois (58) will beat Kent State (106) by 16.0 at home. Kent State has a 0.18 chance of beating Northern Illinois.

Oregon State (69) will beat Arizona (59) by 0.9 at home. Arizona has a 0.48 chance of beating Oregon State.

Brigham Young (61) will beat San Jose State (105) by 14.9 at home. San Jose State has a 0.20 chance of beating Brigham Young.

Florida International (62) will beat Akron (119) by 24.1 on the road. Akron has a 0.10 chance of beating Florida International.

Washington State (63) will beat UCLA (87) by 3.2 on the road. UCLA has a 0.43 chance of beating Washington State.

Utah State (65) will beat Wyoming (107) by 14.9 at home. Wyoming has a 0.20 chance of beating Utah State.

Houston (71) will beat East Carolina (88) by 7.3 at home. East Carolina has a 0.34 chance of beating Houston.

Syracuse (72) will beat Tulane (116) by 12.5 on the road. Tulane has a 0.24 chance of beating Syracuse.

Temple (74) will beat Ball State (110) by 8.4 on the road. Ball State has a 0.31 chance of beating Temple.

Troy (77) will beat Louisiana Lafayette (93) by 2.0 on the road. Louisiana Lafayette has a 0.45 chance of beating Troy.

Louisiana Tech (78) will beat Idaho (102) by 4.8 on the road. Idaho has a 0.39 chance of beating Louisiana Tech.

Ohio (79) will beat Buffalo (115) by 11.2 on the road. Buffalo has a 0.26 chance of beating Ohio.

Minnesota (82) will beat Purdue (92) by 0.5 on the road. Purdue has a 0.49 chance of beating Minnesota.

Arkansas State (86) will beat Louisiana Monroe (99) by 2.6 on the road. Louisiana Monroe has a 0.44 chance of beating Arkansas State.

Miami (OH) (89) will beat Army (91) by 3.1 at home. Army has a 0.43 chance of beating Miami (OH).

Florida Atlantic (97) will beat North Texas (112) by 1.2 on the road. North Texas has a 0.47 chance of beating Florida Atlantic.

Middle Tennessee State (108) will beat Western Kentucky (111) by 4.9 at home. Western Kentucky has a 0.39 chance of beating Middle Tennessee State.