Dear Chiefs Nation, I would like to dedicate this song to you.
No, it’s not just because I have extremely poor taste in cheesy 90’s pop music. There really is cause to take a deep breath and repeat the mantra: “It’s not that bad”.
Yes, the Power Rank is indicating that your team is ranked dead last with a whopping -19.52 rating. Yes, the Power Rank is indicating that if the Chiefs played #1 ranked New England (rating 16.11) this week, they would probably lose by about 36 points. And of course history has shown that if any NFL team would run up a score by 36 on a team that just lost their star running back (Jamaal Charles) to a season-ending injury, it would in fact be Bill Belichick’s Patriots.
Gloom and doom aside, there are things to be thankful for. This week Kansas City only has to face the Power Rank’s #8 best San Diego, who with a ranking 3.58 and homefield advantage is likely to win. But by a Power Rank predicted 23 points? Not likely.
The main reason is that in week 3 although the Power Rank is more stable early on than it has ever been with enhanced algorithmic considerations, it is still somewhat short on solid in-season data. With only 2 crushing defeats under their belts this season, the Chiefs are skewing lower than reasonable expectable, whereas other teams like the Patriots and Packers (#2, 11.57) are skewing high.
That is not to say that the Chiefs aren’t going to be bad this year, or that the Patriots and Packers aren’t among the NFL elite in 2011. All three predictions are more than likely based on qualitative and quantitative assessments. But the degree to which these teams will be dominant, or in the case of the Chiefs, dominated, are exaggerated this early in the season.
So Chiefs fans, take comfort that your division rival is unlikely to beat your team by a margin of more than three touchdowns. Take comfort that even though your team is struggling, they may not yet be as bad as the 0-16 Detroit Lions. And if all else fails, take comfort that next year Andrew Luck will probably be throwing deep strikes to Dwayne Bowe and screens to Jamaal Charles at Arrowhead in 2012 and beyond.