For NFL games from week 11 through the Super Bowl, The Power Rank beat the line in 58.1% of the games. The system chose to wager on 105 of the 123 games, winning 61 of these games. The Power Rank does not wager on games in which its prediction is too close to the line, like in the Super Bowl between Green Bay and Pittsburgh.
To arrive at these results, we calculated the rankings after each day of games. The predicted outcome of a future games is the difference in the numerical rating of the two teams plus a home field factor. We use 2.5 points as the home field edge, a number that is most likely different from the average points by which home teams win in the NFL. The lines were obtained from USA Today the night before each game, We could potentially report results from earlier in the season, but we had computer problems back in early November. It’s hard to coax a dead computer to display those lines we so carefully pulled each week.
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