For the final week of the 2010 season, I’d like to review the playoff predictions made in week 14 and how things actually shook out in the last three weeks.
In the AFC, little changed. Even though the predictions weren’t spot on, the only major change was that consistently underachieving San Diego (#8) slipped a game and lost the AFC West crown to the consistently overachieving Kansas City Chiefs (#22). Other than that, things shook out as expected. Some say consistency is the mark of excellence, and there’s no doubt that the AFC is the elite conference this year.
If consistency is the mark of excellence, then chaos must be the mark of… the NFC.
The NFC has been consistently inconsistent this year, possibly led by The Power Rank favorite and NFL standings underachiever Green Bay (#2). In week 14 Green Bay wasn’t even expected to make the cut, even though they enjoyed the highest rank in the NFC. Instead they made the cut while the Giants (#15) lost out on tiebreakers. Also, in a poorly officiated week 17 home game, Seattle (#29) edged out St. Louis (#26) for the NFC West title.
Of course, that Seattle team is now famous as being the first team to enter the playoffs with a losing record (in a non-strike year). This has caused a little dissent among NFL fans who would rather see a team with a respectable record, like the 10-6 Giants or the 10-6 Buccaneers (#18) instead of the 7-9 Seahawks.
That’s not the only playoff conundrum. In the AFC West, the Oakland Raiders (#17) are done for the season while the Chiefs go on to the playoffs. Well, the Chiefs ended 10-6 while the Raiders only finished with an 8-8 record, so what’s the big deal? The Chiefs went 2-4 in their division, while the Raiders swept the AFC West with a perfect 6-0 divison record.
Are the divisions too small? Is this cheating NFL fans from the best football they can see?
Possibly. I’m certainly among those wondering whether the Saints will score more or less than 50 points against the Seahawks this weekend. I do, however, want to remind fans of one way in which the NFL’s organization has been wildly successful – parity.
In the last ten seasons, only three NFL teams have failed to make the playoffs: Buffalo (#27), Houston (#20), and Detroit (#14). All three teams have been consistently under-talented, and all three have lived in the shadows of consistently good teams in their divisions. Buffalo and Houston are under two of the most successful teams since 2000, the Patriots (#1) and the Colts (#9). While Detroit isn’t living under one dominant shadow, all of their three divisional companions have made the NFC Championship game in the last ten years.
So in today’s NFL it takes quite a bit to be kept out of the playoffs in the long term, which is good for fans, good for business, and ultimately good for the sport.
Just ask the Seahawks.
1. New England, 14-2, 10.87
2. Green Bay, 10-6, 7.07
3. Pittsburgh, 12-4, 6.25
4. Baltimore, 12-4, 5.90
5. Atlanta, 13-3, 4.72
6. New York Jets, 11-5, 3.48
7. New Orleans, 11-5, 3.48
8. San Diego, 9-7, 3.34
9. Indianapolis, 10-6, 3.10
10. Philadelphia, 10-6, 3.04
11. Chicago, 11-5, 2.74
12. Cleveland, 5-11, 0.60
13. Tennessee, 6-10, 0.44
14. Detroit, 6-10, 0.26
15. New York Giants, 10-6, 0.12
16. Miami, 7-9, -0.12
17. Oakland, 8-8, -0.37
18. Tampa Bay, 10-6, -0.83
19. Dallas, 6-10, -0.84
20. Houston, 6-10, -0.94
21. Cincinnati, 4-12, -1.02
22. Kansas City, 10-6, -1.30
23. Minnesota, 6-10, -1.65
24. Washington, 6-10, -2.80
25. Jacksonville, 8-8, -3.39
26. St. Louis, 7-9, -3.75
27. Buffalo, 4-12, -3.80
28. San Francisco, 6-10, -4.37
29. Seattle, 7-9, -5.49
30. Denver, 4-12, -5.50
31. Arizona, 5-11, -7.61
32. Carolina, 2-14, -11.64
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