First, a little disclosure on what’s going on with these rankings and predictions. We’re using a home field advantage of 2.5 in the NFL rankings. This number is most likely off; it’s probably closer to 3.0. We have the data to check this and will do this soon. Also, we’ve been adding 2.5 points to the home team in making the predictions. But when Tom used 3.0 as home field advantage in his post last week, we gave predictions that also used 3.0. But that was just a fluke last week. Until we get a precise home field advantage based on data, we’re going back to 2.5. In fact, that’s the number used when we claim the predictions went 7 for 11 last week (didn’t bet on 5 games).
For the upcoming week:
Pittsburgh will beat Carolina by 19.0 at home
Dallas will beat Arizona by 4.1 on the road
Miami will beat Detroit by 4.0 at home
St. Louis will beat San Francisco by 3.4 at home
Chicago will beat New York Jets by 2.1 at home
New England will beat Buffalo by 8.7 on the road
Jacksonville will beat Washington by 3.5 at home
Kansas City will beat Tennessee by 0.3 at home
Baltimore will beat Cleveland by 1.4 on the road
Indianapolis will beat Oakland by 1.2 on the road
Houston will beat Denver by 1.6 on the road
San Diego will beat Cincinnati by 5.0 on the road
Tampa Bay will beat Seattle by 5.4 at home
Green Bay will beat New York Giants by 7.9 at home
Philadelphia will beat Minnesota by 10.5 at home
Atlanta will beat New Orleans by 4.8 at home
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