Since we are approaching the middle of the season I thought week 7 might be a nice time to reflect on how things have moved in the last few weeks of rating and ranking teams with the Power Rank algorithm.
The first thing that pops out is that four teams have stayed in the top five through the last few weeks, including the number one Jets retaining their spot at the top throughout. Baltimore has only dropped one spot in the rankings, but note that their rating has dropped nearly four points in that time, meaning that if they were expected to win by a touchdown in week four they are only favored by a field goal now.
One of the biggest moves was the Titans who started at #14 but have since worked their way up to #4. During this time their rating has increased from 0.05 to 6.40, showing that solid wins can help a team move from the middle ground limbo discussed last week into the realm of the dominant.
The biggest move was that of the Giants who have climbed an amazing 18 spots from #27 to #9, and have increased their rating by nearly seven points. They have even surpassed Green Bay who have stayed consistently around #10, and this means that the Giants are joining the ranks of the elite NFC teams that could qualify as mediocre AFC teams.
A couple of teams have endured major rating changes without moving much in the ranking. Kansas City has dropped nearly 7 points in rating, but they are still a top team in the league having only dropped four spots in the Power Rank from #3 to #7. On the other end of the spectrum the Raiders have gained almost 5 rating points but have only moved up four spots in the Power Rank from #29 to #25. If you recall the graph from last week, this simply means that these teams have moved from the fringe into the middle of the Power Rank where a couple big wins or losses can make huge differences – expect more movement from both of these teams in the near future.
How much movement can one expect in the middle? Take Seattle for example. They only lost 0.72 rating points but have fallen six spots in the Power Rank from #18 to #24. Chicago also slid 5 spots from #15 to #20 while only having lost 1.17 rating points. When you’re in the middle of the pack every game counts that much more.
These are just some of the biggest changes that have occurred over the last few weeks, but you can check out how your favorite teams have changed since week four in the following chart:
1. New York Jets, 5-1, 9.81
2. Pittsburgh, 5-1, 8.24
3. Baltimore, 5-2, 7.39
4. Tennessee, 5-2, 6.40
5. New England, 5-1, 6.27
6. Indianapolis, 4-2, 5.56
7. Kansas City, 4-2, 2.50
8. Atlanta, 5-2, 2.14
9. New York Giants, 5-2, 1.79
10. Green Bay, 4-3, 1.48
11. Miami, 3-3, 1.24
12. Houston, 4-2, 1.16
13. Minnesota, 2-4, 0.39
14. Denver, 2-5, 0.16
15. Washington, 4-3, 0.05
16. Philadelphia, 4-3, 0.03
17. Cincinnati, 2-4, -0.16
18. San Diego, 2-5, -0.42
19. Dallas, 1-5, -1.27
20. Chicago, 4-3, -1.29
21. St. Louis, 3-4, -1.42
22. Detroit, 1-5, -1.66
23. Cleveland, 2-5, -1.72
24. Seattle, 4-2, -2.11
25. Oakland, 3-4, -2.21
26. New Orleans, 4-3, -3.59
27. Buffalo, 0-6, -4.49
28. Jacksonville, 3-4, -4.70
29. Tampa Bay, 4-2, -5.09
30. San Francisco, 1-6, -6.25
31. Arizona, 3-3, -7.06
32. Carolina, 1-5, -11.22
I was a little surprised that Oakland didn’t rise more spots with that 59-14 win over Denver. But they did get separation from the bottom 7. The game was unbelievable. I hate to use an analogy that’s been all over the media this week, but it’s like Chip Kelly saw UCLA on his Oregon Duck’s schedule this week and decided to come down to Oakland to help out the offense. Can the Silver and Black keep it up?
Oakland gets a nice boost from a Denver win, but isn’t going to rise too much. As things start to average out their narrow victories over the Rams and Chargers and losses to teams like the Cardinals and 49ers are really going to keep their ceiling in check.
Their next games are against so-so Seattle and #7 Power Ranked Kansas City, if they can get solid wins in the next two weeks that may be enough to push them closer to the top.
But don’t forget that they’ve got a brutal schedule to finish the year: The Colts, Dolphins, and Steelers along with two conference games against the Chiefs.
Oh, and McFadden is finally showing what he can do, but as teams start to plan defenses around him his production will decrease. If Jason Campbell can’t breakout with that kind of run support opening up defenses he probably never will.
I’ve noticed in pretty much every sport the ratings bunch up as the season progresses as luck big wins/losses average out. In the NFL this year, the week seven spread from first to worst is about the same as the end of the season last year. Either things have shaken out quickly this year, or we can expect further contraction and increased parity this year. Ironic in an uncapped year.
The Packers upset #1 Jets on their home field with staunch (and unpenalized) defense and a conservative offensive gameplan!!!
As a shameless cheesehead I can’t help but get excited about this potential shakeup!