NFL Rankings, Week 6

This week I want to talk about something that most people aren’t usually interested in – the middle of the pack.

For those of us who are following the rank every week the top teams are no surprise – the Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Colts, Pats, and Titans have been performing well all year and have either been at the top all year or have been steadily rising. But all of these teams have some clear separation from most of their peers, while those jockeying for position in the middle of the pack are in a more uncertain position.

The difference between the Atlanta at #7 and Seattle at #25 is 5.01 points. That means that the Power Rank expects any game between one of the 19 teams in the middle of the pack to be decided by less than a touchdown. To put this into more perspective, the difference between #7 and #25 is less than the difference between #1 (New York Jets) and #6 (Tennessee), or between #30 (Arizona) and #32 (Carolina).

To make my point a little more clear I’ve created a graph of this week’s Power Rank by rounding team ratings to the nearest point and noting their frequency. Teams in green and red have separated themselves from the majority of the league to fall into top and bottom tiers respectively, with the yellow being a relatively undecided middle ground.

The real point here is to avoid splitting hairs or getting worried about your team having a low rank this week. For example, Saints fans might be put off by their Super Bowl Championship team being at #22 in spite of their 4-2 record but I would encourage them to remember that their team is really just one solid game away from moving closer to #10, only three points away.

This is an especially important distinction for NFC fans who are trying to get an early look at how the playoff picture might be shaping up. Note that the top six teams are all AFC teams and that the best NFC team, #7 Atlanta, is actually more a part of the middle group than the breakaway top tier teams. That means that as far as the Power Rank is concerned the NFC is still anyone’s conference… except for Carolina.

1. New York Jets, 5-1, 10.15
2. Baltimore, 4-2, 9.04
3. Pittsburgh, 4-1, 8.88
4. New England, 4-1, 6.80
5. Indianapolis, 4-2, 5.80
6. Tennessee, 4-2, 4.85
7. Atlanta, 4-2, 2.52
8. Philadelphia, 4-2, 2.17
9. Denver, 2-4, 1.72
10. Green Bay, 3-3, 1.48
11. Kansas City, 3-2, 1.47
12. Cincinnati, 2-3, 1.28
13. Houston, 4-2, 0.75
14. Minnesota, 2-3, 0.54
15. New York Giants, 4-2, 0.49
16. Washington, 3-3, 0.13
17. Miami, 3-2, -0.25
18. Chicago, 4-2, -0.56
19. San Diego, 2-4, -0.96
20. Dallas, 1-4, -1.05
21. Detroit, 1-5, -1.25
22. New Orleans, 4-2, -1.54
23. St. Louis, 3-3, -1.67
24. Cleveland, 1-5, -1.98
25. Seattle, 3-2, -2.49
26. Jacksonville, 3-3, -3.67
27. Tampa Bay, 3-2, -4.85
28. San Francisco, 1-5, -5.74
29. Oakland, 2-4, -5.77
30. Arizona, 3-2, -6.35
31. Buffalo, 0-5, -8.50
32. Carolina, 0-5, -11.44