Just one game. San Francisco had to win just one game in a three game series with San Diego to clinch a playoff spot. But of course the Giants lose the first two games of the series, causing sweat to bead up on the forehead of every Giants fan here in the Bay area. On Sunday, they finally got their win, a convincing 3-0 shutout. It’s really unfortunate for the Padres, a small market team with a payroll only a whisker higher than Pittsburgh, the lowest payroll club in the majors.
Before the Power Rank offers a playoff forecast, let’s review our post All-Star break forecast. While we picked 4 of 4 playoff teams in the AL as Minnesota overtook the lower ranked Chicago White Sox, we struggled with only one NL playoff team, Atlanta. Moreover, the Braves didn’t win their division, ending up as the Wild Card behind division winners Philadelphia. San Francisco overtook San Diego in the West while our Colorado pick for the Wild Card didn’t quite work out. But Philadelphia, Atlanta and San Francisco were were all ranked 13 and above at the All-Star break, Cincinnati was 17th and barely better than an average team with a 0.04 value. Yet, the Reds managed to hold off St. Louis in the Central as the Cardinals managed to lose too many games to the bottom teams in their division.
Over the last few months, Tampa Bay and the New York Yankees have traded the top spot in the Power Rank, far ahead of the third ranked team. Many teams have occupied the third spot, including Boston, San Diego, Atlanta and Minnesota. Finally, a late season surge by Philadelphia vaulted them into third behind Tampa Bay and New York. Expect these three top teams to dominate their first round matchups, as their point values suggests they would be favorites even on the road. The series between San Francisco and Atlanta is a coin toss, with the Giants coming out ahead because of home field advantage. In the AL championship series, we finally get the series we’ve been waiting for all year: Tampa Bay and New York. This is another coin toss with Tampa Bay as a slight favorite with home field. The winner of this series will beat Philadelphia in the World Series.
Just remember though, anything can happen in a short series. Even Cincinnati has a chance.
Final Regular Season Rankings for Major League Baseball.
1. Tampa Bay, 96-66, 1.05
2. New York Yankees, 95-67, 1.02
3. Philadelphia, 97-65, 0.79
4. Boston, 89-73, 0.63
5. Minnesota, 94-68, 0.60
6. Atlanta, 91-71, 0.55
7. San Francisco, 92-70, 0.53
8. Texas, 90-72, 0.46
9. St. Louis, 86-76, 0.41
10. Toronto, 85-77, 0.39
11. San Diego, 90-72, 0.37
12. Colorado, 83-79, 0.30
13. Cincinnati, 91-71, 0.23
14. Chicago White Sox, 88-74, 0.19
15. Oakland, 81-81, 0.18
16. Florida, 80-82, 0.06
17. Detroit, 81-81, 0.05
18. New York Mets, 79-83, 0.05
19. Los Angeles Angels, 80-82, -0.04
20. Los Angeles Dodgers, 80-82, -0.15
21. Washington, 69-93, -0.49
22. Cleveland, 69-93, -0.51
23. Milwaukee, 77-85, -0.53
24. Chicago Cubs, 75-87, -0.59
25. Arizona, 65-97, -0.65
26. Baltimore, 66-96, -0.67
27. Houston, 76-86, -0.77
28. Kansas City, 67-95, -0.87
29. Seattle, 61-101, -0.91
30. Pittsburgh, 57-105, -1.70
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