You’re way smarter than the average sports fan.
It’s 2014, and you know analytics is necessary tool in predicting the outcomes of games and events such as the NCAA tournament.
My name is Ed Feng, and I developed a ranking algorithm for teams based on my Ph.D. research at Stanford. Since 2005, the higher ranked team has won 62.3% of college football bowl games (187-113).
I contribute college football content to Grantland and Bleacher Report, and my numbers have appeared in Sports Illustrated, Deadspin, Five Thirty Eight and Business Week.
Here, you’ll find predictions based on my team rankings that use margin of victory in games. This is one of the predictors that I use in my ensemble predictions, which are available to members.
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College Football, Week 10
1. Utah at Arizona State.
Arizona State (24) will beat Utah (25) by 3.4 at home. Utah has a 40% chance of beating Arizona State.
2. Auburn at Mississippi.
Mississippi (2) will beat Auburn (4) by 4.9 at home. Auburn has a 36% chance of beating Mississippi.
3. Florida State at Louisville.
Louisville (26) will beat Florida State (20) by 1.7 at home. Florida State has a 45% chance of beating Louisville.
4. Arizona at UCLA.
UCLA (21) will beat Arizona (15) by 0.5 at home. Arizona has a 48% chance of beating UCLA.
5. Boston College at Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech (43) will beat Boston College (44) by 3.7 at home. Boston College has a 39% chance of beating Virginia Tech.
6. Tennessee at South Carolina.
South Carolina (22) will beat Tennessee (33) by 5.7 at home. Tennessee has a 34% chance of beating South Carolina.
7. Northwestern at Iowa.
Iowa (57) will beat Northwestern (58) by 3.0 at home. Northwestern has a 41% chance of beating Iowa.
8. Kentucky at Missouri.
Missouri (32) will beat Kentucky (41) by 6.5 at home. Kentucky has a 31% chance of beating Missouri.
9. TCU at West Virginia.
TCU (5) will beat West Virginia (13) by 3.3 on the road. West Virginia has a 40% chance of beating TCU.
10. Virginia at Georgia Tech.
Georgia Tech (36) will beat Virginia (50) by 8.2 at home. Virginia has a 27% chance of beating Georgia Tech.
11. North Carolina State at Syracuse.
Syracuse (78) will beat North Carolina State (77) by 2.9 at home. North Carolina State has a 41% chance of beating Syracuse.
12. Stanford at Oregon.
Oregon (8) will beat Stanford (30) by 13.0 at home. Stanford has a 17% chance of beating Oregon.
13. Maryland at Penn State.
Maryland (59) will beat Penn State (70) by 1.0 on the road. Penn State has a 47% chance of beating Maryland.
14. Brigham Young at Middle Tennessee State.
Brigham Young (60) will beat Middle Tennessee State (71) by 0.8 on the road. Middle Tennessee State has a 48% chance of beating Brigham Young.
15. Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech.
Louisiana Tech (65) will beat Western Kentucky (76) by 6.5 at home. Western Kentucky has a 32% chance of beating Louisiana Tech.
16. California at Oregon State.
California (46) will beat Oregon State (69) by 2.7 on the road. Oregon State has a 42% chance of beating California.
17. Duke at Pittsburgh.
Duke (34) will beat Pittsburgh (62) by 6.0 on the road. Pittsburgh has a 33% chance of beating Duke.
18. Washington at Colorado.
Washington (52) will beat Colorado (73) by 3.2 on the road. Colorado has a 41% chance of beating Washington.
19. USC at Washington State.
USC (17) will beat Washington State (54) by 7.8 on the road. Washington State has a 28% chance of beating USC.
20. Indiana at Michigan.
Michigan (92) will beat Indiana (83) by 0.5 at home. Indiana has a 48% chance of beating Michigan.
21. North Carolina at Miami (FL).
Miami (FL) (28) will beat North Carolina (64) by 12.7 at home. North Carolina has a 18% chance of beating Miami (FL).
22. Arkansas at Mississippi State.
Mississippi State (1) will beat Arkansas (19) by 18.2 at home. Arkansas has a 10% chance of beating Mississippi State.
23. Texas at Texas Tech.
Texas (51) will beat Texas Tech (84) by 4.2 on the road. Texas Tech has a 38% chance of beating Texas.
24. Florida versus Georgia at a neutral site.
Georgia (6) will beat Florida (40) by 15.1 at a neutral site. Florida has a 14% chance of beating Georgia.
25. South Alabama at Louisiana Lafayette.
Louisiana Lafayette (111) will beat South Alabama (110) by 2.9 at home. South Alabama has a 41% chance of beating Louisiana Lafayette.
26. Oklahoma State at Kansas State.
Kansas State (9) will beat Oklahoma State (53) by 19.7 at home. Oklahoma State has a 9% chance of beating Kansas State.
27. Rice at Florida International.
Florida International (88) will beat Rice (108) by 5.9 at home. Rice has a 33% chance of beating Florida International.
28. Oklahoma at Iowa State.
Oklahoma (7) will beat Iowa State (61) by 17.5 on the road. Iowa State has a 11% chance of beating Oklahoma.
29. San Diego State at Nevada.
Nevada (45) will beat San Diego State (90) by 13.7 at home. San Diego State has a 16% chance of beating Nevada.
30. Wyoming at Fresno State.
Fresno State (106) will beat Wyoming (117) by 5.0 at home. Wyoming has a 35% chance of beating Fresno State.
31. Wisconsin at Rutgers.
Wisconsin (23) will beat Rutgers (75) by 12.6 on the road. Rutgers has a 18% chance of beating Wisconsin.
32. Illinois at Ohio State.
Ohio State (31) will beat Illinois (85) by 17.1 at home. Illinois has a 11% chance of beating Ohio State.
33. Purdue at Nebraska.
Nebraska (14) will beat Purdue (72) by 21.4 at home. Purdue has a 7% chance of beating Nebraska.
34. Utah State at Hawaii.
Utah State (56) will beat Hawaii (102) by 6.9 on the road. Hawaii has a 30% chance of beating Utah State.
35. UAB at Florida Atlantic.
UAB (48) will beat Florida Atlantic (105) by 8.7 on the road. Florida Atlantic has a 26% chance of beating UAB.
36. Houston at South Florida.
Houston (66) will beat South Florida (114) by 6.8 on the road. South Florida has a 31% chance of beating Houston.
37. Notre Dame at Navy.
Notre Dame (27) will beat Navy (97) by 15.7 on the road. Navy has a 13% chance of beating Notre Dame.
38. East Carolina at Temple.
East Carolina (37) will beat Temple (104) by 13.3 on the road. Temple has a 17% chance of beating East Carolina.
39. Kansas at Baylor.
Baylor (11) will beat Kansas (115) by 31.0 at home. Kansas has a 2% chance of beating Baylor.
40. Cincinnati at Tulane.
Cincinnati (91) will beat Tulane (126) by 3.3 on the road. Tulane has a 40% chance of beating Cincinnati.
41. Colorado State at San Jose State.
Colorado State (42) will beat San Jose State (116) by 13.0 on the road. San Jose State has a 17% chance of beating Colorado State.
42. Western Michigan at Miami (OH).
Western Michigan (87) will beat Miami (OH) (132) by 4.8 on the road. Miami (OH) has a 36% chance of beating Western Michigan.
43. Texas State at New Mexico State.
New Mexico State (153) will beat Texas State (151) by 2.4 at home. Texas State has a 43% chance of beating New Mexico State.
44. UCF at Connecticut.
UCF (67) will beat Connecticut (130) by 9.7 on the road. Connecticut has a 24% chance of beating UCF.
45. Southern Miss at UTEP.
UTEP (94) will beat Southern Miss (138) by 10.6 at home. Southern Miss has a 22% chance of beating UTEP.
46. Louisiana Monroe at Texas A&M.
Texas A&M (18) will beat Louisiana Monroe (143) by 31.2 at home. Louisiana Monroe has a 2% chance of beating Texas A&M.
47. Old Dominion at Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt (95) will beat Old Dominion (141) by 10.8 at home. Old Dominion has a 21% chance of beating Vanderbilt.
48. Georgia State at Appalachian State.
Appalachian State (161) will beat Georgia State (163) by 3.2 at home. Georgia State has a 40% chance of beating Appalachian State.
49. Tulsa at Memphis.
Memphis (39) will beat Tulsa (164) by 30.6 at home. Tulsa has a 2% chance of beating Memphis.
50. Air Force at Army.
Air Force (68) will beat Army (157) by 14.2 on the road. Army has a 15% chance of beating Air Force.
51. Troy at Georgia Southern.
Georgia Southern (47) will beat Troy (171) by 27.9 at home. Troy has a 3% chance of beating Georgia Southern.
52. New Mexico at UNLV.
New Mexico (122) will beat UNLV (165) by 5.7 on the road. UNLV has a 34% chance of beating New Mexico.
53. Arkansas State at Idaho.
Arkansas State (74) will beat Idaho (162) by 13.8 on the road. Idaho has a 16% chance of beating Arkansas State.
54. Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan.
Central Michigan (96) will beat Eastern Michigan (197) by 17.5 on the road. Eastern Michigan has a 11% chance of beating Central Michigan.
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National Football League, Week 9
1. Arizona at Dallas.
Dallas (10) will beat Arizona (8) by 1.9 at home. Arizona has a 45% chance of beating Dallas.
2. Baltimore at Pittsburgh.
Baltimore (7) will beat Pittsburgh (12) by 0.6 on the road. Pittsburgh has a 48% chance of beating Baltimore.
3. Philadelphia at Houston.
Philadelphia (6) will beat Houston (13) by 1.3 on the road. Houston has a 46% chance of beating Philadelphia.
4. Denver at New England.
Denver (1) will beat New England (11) by 6.6 on the road. New England has a 32% chance of beating Denver.
5. San Diego at Miami.
San Diego (5) will beat Miami (19) by 3.5 on the road. Miami has a 40% chance of beating San Diego.
6. New Orleans at Carolina.
New Orleans (18) will beat Carolina (24) by 0.2 on the road. Carolina has a 49% chance of beating New Orleans.
7. Indianapolis at New York Giants.
Indianapolis (2) will beat New York Giants (22) by 5.8 on the road. New York Giants has a 34% chance of beating Indianapolis.
8. St. Louis at San Francisco.
San Francisco (9) will beat St. Louis (26) by 10.0 at home. St. Louis has a 25% chance of beating San Francisco.
9. Washington at Minnesota.
Washington (21) will beat Minnesota (27) by 1.7 on the road. Minnesota has a 45% chance of beating Washington.
10. Jacksonville at Cincinnati.
Cincinnati (14) will beat Jacksonville (30) by 10.0 at home. Jacksonville has a 25% chance of beating Cincinnati.
11. New York Jets at Kansas City.
Kansas City (3) will beat New York Jets (29) by 15.3 at home. New York Jets has a 15% chance of beating Kansas City.
12. Tampa Bay at Cleveland.
Cleveland (17) will beat Tampa Bay (32) by 10.5 at home. Tampa Bay has a 24% chance of beating Cleveland.
13. Oakland at Seattle.
Seattle (4) will beat Oakland (31) by 15.9 at home. Oakland has a 15% chance of beating Seattle.
These predictions are based on the team rankings, which take the margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule. The number in parenthesis next to each team gives its rank.
The predictions include a uniform constant for home field advantage. For more details, click here.
In addition, games are ranked by the quality of the teams and closeness the expected outcome. Think of this as a viewer’s guide. The larger the number in parenthesis next to the game, the more likely you’ll want to watch.