Predictions

The Power Rank uses analytics for better sports predictions. College football, NFL and MLB predictions are below.

College football and NFL predictions for Sept 29th through Oct 2nd will be up on Wednesday morning.

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Major League Baseball

These predictions use team rankings that adjust for a team’s cluster luck. They consider starting pitching through a projected FIP but no injuries or other situations.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.

Games on Tuesday, September 27, 2016.

Chicago Cubs (John Lackey, 3.69) at Pittsburgh (Ryan Vogelsong, 4.58).
Chicago Cubs (2) has a 70.8 chance to beat Pittsburgh (21).

Arizona (Matt Koch, 4.92) at Washington (Max Scherzer, 2.82).
Washington (4) has a 77.0 chance to beat Arizona (27).

New York Mets (Noah Syndergaard, 2.72) at Miami (Tom Koehler, 4.40).
New York Mets (13) has a 63.1 chance to beat Miami (18).

Philadelphia (Jerad Eickhoff, 4.49) at Atlanta (Julio Teheran, 3.83).
Atlanta (25) has a 59.5 chance to beat Philadelphia (29).

Cincinnati (Robert Stephenson, 5.58) at St. Louis (Adam Wainwright, 3.49).
St. Louis (7) has a 76.7 chance to beat Cincinnati (30).

Los Angeles Dodgers (Kenta Maeda, 3.38) at San Diego (Paul Clemens, 5.43).
Los Angeles Dodgers (5) has a 75.2 chance to beat San Diego (28).

Colorado (German Marquez, 4.93) at San Francisco (Matt Moore, 4.29).
San Francisco (8) has a 58.8 chance to beat Colorado (16).

Boston (David Price, 3.15) at New York Yankees (Luis Cessa, 5.19).
Boston (1) has a 73.9 chance to beat New York Yankees (14).

Baltimore (Kevin Gausman, 3.96) at Toronto (Aaron Sanchez, 3.96).
Toronto (3) has a 56.4 chance to beat Baltimore (10).

Cleveland (Mike Clevinger, 5.04) at Detroit (Justin Verlander, 3.65).
Detroit (11) has a 58.9 chance to beat Cleveland (6).

Minnesota (Jose Berrios, 4.37) at Kansas City (Ian Kennedy, 4.65).
Kansas City (20) has a 53.5 chance to beat Minnesota (26).

Seattle (Felix Hernandez, 3.64) at Houston (Mike Fiers, 4.30).
Seattle (12) has a 54.9 chance to beat Houston (15).

Tampa Bay (Alex Cobb, 3.71) at Chicago White Sox (Chris Sale, 3.07).
Chicago White Sox (19) has a 51.9 chance to beat Tampa Bay (9).

Using replacement level fip for Daniel Mengden
Oakland (Daniel Mengden, 5.00) at Los Angeles Angels (Ricky Nolasco, 4.00).
Los Angeles Angels (22) has a 58.8 chance to beat Oakland (23).

Milwaukee (Jimmy Nelson, 4.44) at Texas (A.J. Griffin, 5.24).
Milwaukee (24) has a 50.2 chance to beat Texas (17).

National Football League, Week 3

These NFL predictions are based on a wisdom of crowds model. To learn more, click here.

1. Denver at Cincinnati.
Cincinnati (8) will beat Denver (7) by 2.9 at home. Denver has a 42% chance of beating Cincinnati.

2. New York Jets at Kansas City.
Kansas City (9) will beat New York Jets (13) by 5.5 at home. New York Jets has a 35% chance of beating Kansas City.

3. Washington at New York Giants.
New York Giants (17) will beat Washington (14) by 1.8 at home. Washington has a 45% chance of beating New York Giants.

4. Minnesota at Carolina.
Carolina (1) will beat Minnesota (10) by 9.1 at home. Minnesota has a 27% chance of beating Carolina.

5. Houston at New England.
New England (4) will beat Houston (12) by 8.2 at home. Houston has a 29% chance of beating New England.

6. Baltimore at Jacksonville.
Jacksonville (19) will beat Baltimore (15) by 1.9 at home. Baltimore has a 45% chance of beating Jacksonville.

7. Atlanta at New Orleans.
New Orleans (25) will beat Atlanta (22) by 1.9 at home. Atlanta has a 45% chance of beating New Orleans.

8. Arizona at Buffalo.
Arizona (3) will beat Buffalo (20) by 5.1 on the road. Buffalo has a 36% chance of beating Arizona.

9. Los Angeles at Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay (21) will beat Los Angeles (26) by 5.2 at home. Los Angeles has a 36% chance of beating Tampa Bay.

10. Chicago at Dallas.
Dallas (18) will beat Chicago (27) by 6.6 at home. Chicago has a 32% chance of beating Dallas.

11. Detroit at Green Bay.
Green Bay (5) will beat Detroit (23) by 11.3 at home. Detroit has a 22% chance of beating Green Bay.

12. San Diego at Indianapolis.
Indianapolis (16) will beat San Diego (28) by 7.3 at home. San Diego has a 31% chance of beating Indianapolis.

13. Oakland at Tennessee.
Oakland (11) will beat Tennessee (30) by 3.6 on the road. Tennessee has a 40% chance of beating Oakland.

14. Pittsburgh at Philadelphia.
Pittsburgh (6) will beat Philadelphia (29) by 7.1 on the road. Philadelphia has a 31% chance of beating Pittsburgh.

15. Cleveland at Miami.
Miami (24) will beat Cleveland (32) by 8.0 at home. Cleveland has a 29% chance of beating Miami.

16. San Francisco at Seattle.
Seattle (2) will beat San Francisco (31) by 18.1 at home. San Francisco has a 12% chance of beating Seattle.

College Football, Week 4

Members of The Power Rank have access to even more accurate ensemble predictions for college and pro football. To learn more, click here.

1. Arkansas versus Texas A&M at a neutral site.
Texas A&M (11) will beat Arkansas (13) by 1.5 at a neutral site. Arkansas has a 46% chance of beating Texas A&M.

2. Wisconsin at Michigan State.
Michigan State (16) will beat Wisconsin (22) by 4.1 at home. Wisconsin has a 38% chance of beating Michigan State.

3. Oklahoma State at Baylor.
Baylor (15) will beat Oklahoma State (27) by 5.2 at home. Oklahoma State has a 35% chance of beating Baylor.

4. USC at Utah.
Utah (23) will beat USC (30) by 4.6 at home. USC has a 37% chance of beating Utah.

5. Georgia at Mississippi.
Mississippi (10) will beat Georgia (25) by 7.5 at home. Georgia has a 29% chance of beating Mississippi.

6. Pittsburgh at North Carolina.
North Carolina (19) will beat Pittsburgh (34) by 6.6 at home. Pittsburgh has a 31% chance of beating North Carolina.

7. Florida at Tennessee.
Tennessee (9) will beat Florida (29) by 9.1 at home. Florida has a 25% chance of beating Tennessee.

8. California at Arizona State.
Arizona State (49) will beat California (46) by 2.5 at home. California has a 43% chance of beating Arizona State.

9. Georgia Southern at Western Michigan.
Western Michigan (44) will beat Georgia Southern (50) by 3.8 at home. Georgia Southern has a 39% chance of beating Western Michigan.

10. Brigham Young at West Virginia.
Brigham Young (28) will beat West Virginia (45) by 1.0 on the road. West Virginia has a 47% chance of beating Brigham Young.

11. Florida State at South Florida.
Florida State (5) will beat South Florida (32) by 6.4 on the road. South Florida has a 32% chance of beating Florida State.

12. Washington at Arizona.
Washington (20) will beat Arizona (42) by 2.3 on the road. Arizona has a 43% chance of beating Washington.

13. Wake Forest at Indiana.
Indiana (66) will beat Wake Forest (65) by 3.0 at home. Wake Forest has a 41% chance of beating Indiana.

14. LSU at Auburn.
LSU (7) will beat Auburn (35) by 6.2 on the road. Auburn has a 32% chance of beating LSU.

15. Vanderbilt at Western Kentucky.
Western Kentucky (67) will beat Vanderbilt (63) by 2.3 at home. Vanderbilt has a 43% chance of beating Western Kentucky.

16. Stanford at UCLA.
Stanford (6) will beat UCLA (39) by 7.2 on the road. UCLA has a 30% chance of beating Stanford.

17. Penn State at Michigan.
Michigan (8) will beat Penn State (41) by 13.0 at home. Penn State has a 17% chance of beating Michigan.

18. Nebraska at Northwestern.
Nebraska (18) will beat Northwestern (56) by 4.7 on the road. Northwestern has a 36% chance of beating Nebraska.

19. Clemson at Georgia Tech.
Clemson (4) will beat Georgia Tech (53) by 10.5 on the road. Georgia Tech has a 22% chance of beating Clemson.

20. Central Michigan at Virginia.
Virginia (77) will beat Central Michigan (68) by 0.6 at home. Central Michigan has a 48% chance of beating Virginia.

21. Colorado at Oregon.
Oregon (21) will beat Colorado (71) by 11.8 at home. Colorado has a 20% chance of beating Oregon.

22. San Jose State at Iowa State.
Iowa State (79) will beat San Jose State (83) by 3.9 at home. San Jose State has a 39% chance of beating Iowa State.

23. Air Force at Utah State.
Air Force (61) will beat Utah State (80) by 1.0 on the road. Utah State has a 47% chance of beating Air Force.

24. East Carolina at Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech (36) will beat East Carolina (76) by 10.0 at home. East Carolina has a 23% chance of beating Virginia Tech.

25. Syracuse at Connecticut.
Connecticut (64) will beat Syracuse (86) by 7.8 at home. Syracuse has a 28% chance of beating Connecticut.

26. Boise State at Oregon State.
Boise State (55) will beat Oregon State (89) by 3.4 on the road. Oregon State has a 40% chance of beating Boise State.

27. Duke at Notre Dame.
Notre Dame (14) will beat Duke (82) by 16.5 at home. Duke has a 12% chance of beating Notre Dame.

28. Louisiana Tech at Middle Tennessee State.
Middle Tennessee State (93) will beat Louisiana Tech (84) by 0.0 at home. Louisiana Tech has a 50% chance of beating Middle Tennessee State.

29. Bowling Green at Memphis.
Memphis (40) will beat Bowling Green (88) by 11.5 at home. Bowling Green has a 20% chance of beating Memphis.

30. Iowa at Rutgers.
Iowa (33) will beat Rutgers (87) by 7.0 on the road. Rutgers has a 30% chance of beating Iowa.

31. Louisiana Lafayette at Tulane.
Tulane (99) will beat Louisiana Lafayette (105) by 4.7 at home. Louisiana Lafayette has a 36% chance of beating Tulane.

32. Louisville at Marshall.
Louisville (3) will beat Marshall (96) by 19.4 on the road. Marshall has a 9% chance of beating Louisville.

33. South Carolina at Kentucky.
South Carolina (51) will beat Kentucky (94) by 5.9 on the road. Kentucky has a 33% chance of beating South Carolina.

34. Kent State at Alabama.
Alabama (1) will beat Kent State (108) by 34.4 at home. Kent State has a 2% chance of beating Alabama.

35. Nevada at Purdue.
Purdue (81) will beat Nevada (101) by 8.8 at home. Nevada has a 26% chance of beating Purdue.

36. TCU at SMU.
TCU (26) will beat SMU (95) by 11.3 on the road. SMU has a 21% chance of beating TCU.

37. Ball State at Florida Atlantic.
Ball State (97) will beat Florida Atlantic (109) by 1.2 on the road. Florida Atlantic has a 47% chance of beating Ball State.

38. Idaho at UNLV.
UNLV (115) will beat Idaho (119) by 4.8 at home. Idaho has a 36% chance of beating UNLV.

39. Colorado State at Minnesota.
Minnesota (58) will beat Colorado State (106) by 14.6 at home. Colorado State has a 15% chance of beating Minnesota.

40. UTSA at Old Dominion.
Old Dominion (123) will beat UTSA (118) by 1.1 at home. UTSA has a 47% chance of beating Old Dominion.

41. Appalachian State at Akron.
Appalachian State (73) will beat Akron (110) by 8.5 on the road. Akron has a 26% chance of beating Appalachian State.

42. Wyoming at Eastern Michigan.
Wyoming (100) will beat Eastern Michigan (116) by 3.7 on the road. Eastern Michigan has a 39% chance of beating Wyoming.

43. North Texas at Rice.
Rice (112) will beat North Texas (126) by 8.0 at home. North Texas has a 28% chance of beating Rice.

44. Miami (OH) at Cincinnati.
Cincinnati (48) will beat Miami (OH) (113) by 19.2 at home. Miami (OH) has a 9% chance of beating Cincinnati.

45. Army at Buffalo.
Army (69) will beat Buffalo (114) by 10.8 on the road. Buffalo has a 22% chance of beating Army.

46. Mississippi State at Massachusetts.
Mississippi State (24) will beat Massachusetts (120) by 20.9 on the road. Massachusetts has a 7% chance of beating Mississippi State.

47. UCF at Florida International.
UCF (103) will beat Florida International (124) by 5.5 on the road. Florida International has a 34% chance of beating UCF.

48. Houston at Texas State.
Houston (17) will beat Texas State (122) by 23.9 on the road. Texas State has a 5% chance of beating Houston.

49. Tulsa at Fresno State.
Tulsa (78) will beat Fresno State (121) by 11.0 on the road. Fresno State has a 21% chance of beating Tulsa.

50. Southern Miss at UTEP.
Southern Miss (85) will beat UTEP (125) by 11.4 on the road. UTEP has a 20% chance of beating Southern Miss.

51. New Mexico State at Troy.
Troy (62) will beat New Mexico State (127) by 22.6 at home. New Mexico State has a 6% chance of beating Troy.

52. Charlotte at Temple.
Temple (52) will beat Charlotte (128) by 30.7 at home. Charlotte has a 2% chance of beating Temple.

National Basketball Association

To see my numbers prior to the start of the playoffs, check out the interactive visual for NBA win probabilities.

International Soccer

My rankings were a part of an academic study on making football predictions.

To check out my Euro 2016 win probabilities before the knock out stage started, click here.

College Basketball