Predictions

You’re way smarter than the average sports fan.

It’s 2014, and you know analytics is necessary tool in predicting the outcomes of games and events such as the NCAA tournament.

My name is Ed Feng, and I developed a ranking algorithm for teams based on my Ph.D. research at Stanford. Since 2005, the higher ranked team has won 62.3% of college football bowl games (187-113).

I contribute college football content to Grantland and Bleacher Report, and my numbers have appeared in Sports Illustrated, Deadspin, Five Thirty Eight and Business Week.

Here, you’ll find predictions based on my team rankings that use margin of victory in games. This is one of the predictors that I use in my ensemble predictions, which are available to members.

Bowl package from the college football prediction service

The prediction service is a joint effort with Mike Craig and offers picks and math predictions for all games. The visual shows our record for the season.

Our bowl package is now ready. To get the first 5 picks and math predictions, click here.

College Football Bowl Games

These predictions use calculations based on margin of victory and yards per play. To learn more about the methods, click here.

1. Mississippi versus TCU at a neutral site.
Mississippi (8) will beat TCU (10) by 1.0 at a neutral site. TCU has a 47% chance of beating Mississippi.

2. Ohio State versus Alabama at a neutral site.
Alabama (2) will beat Ohio State (3) by 4.5 at a neutral site. Ohio State has a 37% chance of beating Alabama.

3. Kansas State versus UCLA at a neutral site.
Kansas State (12) will beat UCLA (17) by 1.6 at a neutral site. UCLA has a 45% chance of beating Kansas State.

4. Michigan State versus Baylor at a neutral site.
Michigan State (6) will beat Baylor (13) by 4.5 at a neutral site. Baylor has a 37% chance of beating Michigan State.

5. Oklahoma versus Clemson at a neutral site.
Oklahoma (15) will beat Clemson (21) by 2.7 at a neutral site. Clemson has a 42% chance of beating Oklahoma.

6. Boise State versus Arizona at a neutral site.
Arizona (31) will beat Boise State (32) by 0.1 at a neutral site. Boise State has a 50% chance of beating Arizona.

7. Arkansas versus Texas at a neutral site.
Arkansas (24) will beat Texas (29) by 1.2 at a neutral site. Texas has a 47% chance of beating Arkansas.

8. West Virginia versus Texas A&M at a neutral site.
West Virginia (20) will beat Texas A&M (28) by 2.6 at a neutral site. Texas A&M has a 42% chance of beating West Virginia.

9. Nebraska versus USC at a neutral site.
USC (18) will beat Nebraska (27) by 3.6 at a neutral site. Nebraska has a 39% chance of beating USC.

10. Auburn versus Wisconsin at a neutral site.
Auburn (5) will beat Wisconsin (19) by 7.7 at a neutral site. Wisconsin has a 28% chance of beating Auburn.

11. Florida State versus Oregon at a neutral site.
Oregon (1) will beat Florida State (11) by 10.8 at a neutral site. Florida State has a 22% chance of beating Oregon.

12. Notre Dame versus LSU at a neutral site.
LSU (14) will beat Notre Dame (34) by 6.5 at a neutral site. Notre Dame has a 32% chance of beating LSU.

13. Boston College versus Penn State at a neutral site.
Penn State (40) will beat Boston College (47) by 1.1 at a neutral site. Boston College has a 47% chance of beating Penn State.

14. Mississippi State versus Georgia Tech at a neutral site.
Mississippi State (9) will beat Georgia Tech (30) by 8.6 at a neutral site. Georgia Tech has a 26% chance of beating Mississippi State.

15. Miami (FL) versus South Carolina at a neutral site.
Miami (FL) (16) will beat South Carolina (35) by 6.9 at a neutral site. South Carolina has a 30% chance of beating Miami (FL).

16. Utah versus Colorado State at a neutral site.
Utah (36) will beat Colorado State (48) by 2.6 at a neutral site. Colorado State has a 42% chance of beating Utah.

17. Brigham Young versus Memphis at a neutral site.
Brigham Young (42) will beat Memphis (51) by 1.6 at a neutral site. Memphis has a 45% chance of beating Brigham Young.

18. Iowa versus Tennessee at a neutral site.
Tennessee (46) will beat Iowa (53) by 1.5 at a neutral site. Iowa has a 45% chance of beating Tennessee.

19. Cincinnati versus Virginia Tech at a neutral site.
Virginia Tech (38) will beat Cincinnati (52) by 3.0 at a neutral site. Cincinnati has a 41% chance of beating Virginia Tech.

20. East Carolina versus Florida at a neutral site.
Florida (25) will beat East Carolina (44) by 5.3 at a neutral site. East Carolina has a 35% chance of beating Florida.

21. Georgia versus Louisville at a neutral site.
Georgia (4) will beat Louisville (33) by 11.5 at a neutral site. Louisville has a 20% chance of beating Georgia.

22. Missouri versus Minnesota at a neutral site.
Missouri (22) will beat Minnesota (43) by 6.3 at a neutral site. Minnesota has a 32% chance of beating Missouri.

23. Oklahoma State versus Washington at a neutral site.
Washington (39) will beat Oklahoma State (55) by 3.0 at a neutral site. Oklahoma State has a 41% chance of beating Washington.

24. Rutgers versus North Carolina at a neutral site.
North Carolina (63) will beat Rutgers (65) by 1.1 at a neutral site. Rutgers has a 47% chance of beating North Carolina.

25. Arizona State versus Duke at a neutral site.
Arizona State (26) will beat Duke (60) by 7.8 at a neutral site. Duke has a 28% chance of beating Arizona State.

26. North Carolina State versus UCF at a neutral site.
UCF (37) will beat North Carolina State (64) by 6.0 at a neutral site. North Carolina State has a 33% chance of beating UCF.

27. Illinois versus Louisiana Tech at a neutral site.
Louisiana Tech (59) will beat Illinois (70) by 3.1 at a neutral site. Illinois has a 41% chance of beating Louisiana Tech.

28. Navy versus San Diego State at a neutral site.
Navy (69) will beat San Diego State (73) by 1.3 at a neutral site. San Diego State has a 46% chance of beating Navy.

29. Maryland versus Stanford at a neutral site.
Stanford (7) will beat Maryland (56) by 15.8 at a neutral site. Maryland has a 13% chance of beating Stanford.

30. Western Michigan versus Air Force at a neutral site.
Western Michigan (71) will beat Air Force (79) by 1.0 at a neutral site. Air Force has a 47% chance of beating Western Michigan.

31. Houston versus Pittsburgh at a neutral site.
Pittsburgh (41) will beat Houston (67) by 6.0 at a neutral site. Houston has a 33% chance of beating Pittsburgh.

32. Central Michigan versus Western Kentucky at a neutral site.
Western Kentucky (75) will beat Central Michigan (85) by 2.4 at a neutral site. Central Michigan has a 43% chance of beating Western Kentucky.

33. Toledo versus Arkansas State at a neutral site.
Toledo (74) will beat Arkansas State (87) by 2.7 at a neutral site. Arkansas State has a 42% chance of beating Toledo.

34. Marshall versus Northern Illinois at a neutral site.
Marshall (23) will beat Northern Illinois (80) by 13.8 at a neutral site. Northern Illinois has a 16% chance of beating Marshall.

35. Fresno State versus Rice at a neutral site.
Rice (91) will beat Fresno State (95) by 1.7 at a neutral site. Fresno State has a 45% chance of beating Rice.

36. Nevada versus Louisiana Lafayette at a neutral site.
Nevada (76) will beat Louisiana Lafayette (94) by 5.5 at a neutral site. Louisiana Lafayette has a 34% chance of beating Nevada.

37. South Alabama versus Bowling Green at a neutral site.
Bowling Green (97) will beat South Alabama (109) by 1.8 at a neutral site. South Alabama has a 45% chance of beating Bowling Green.

38. Utah State versus UTEP at a neutral site.
Utah State (54) will beat UTEP (115) by 16.1 at a neutral site. UTEP has a 13% chance of beating Utah State.

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National Football League, Week 16

Check out Frank Brank’s analysis of games by clicking here.

1. Seattle at Arizona.
Seattle (3) will beat Arizona (8) by 1.4 on the road. Arizona has a 46% chance of beating Seattle.

2. Indianapolis at Dallas.
Dallas (13) will beat Indianapolis (6) by 0.5 at home. Indianapolis has a 49% chance of beating Dallas.

3. Kansas City at Pittsburgh.
Kansas City (4) will beat Pittsburgh (14) by 2.7 on the road. Pittsburgh has a 42% chance of beating Kansas City.

4. San Diego at San Francisco.
San Diego (11) will beat San Francisco (19) by 0.2 on the road. San Francisco has a 49% chance of beating San Diego.

5. Baltimore at Houston.
Baltimore (7) will beat Houston (17) by 0.9 on the road. Houston has a 47% chance of beating Baltimore.

6. Denver at Cincinnati.
Denver (2) will beat Cincinnati (16) by 5.7 on the road. Cincinnati has a 35% chance of beating Denver.

7. Atlanta at New Orleans.
New Orleans (20) will beat Atlanta (23) by 4.8 at home. Atlanta has a 37% chance of beating New Orleans.

8. Cleveland at Carolina.
Carolina (26) will beat Cleveland (21) by 0.6 at home. Cleveland has a 48% chance of beating Carolina.

9. Minnesota at Miami.
Miami (12) will beat Minnesota (22) by 8.2 at home. Minnesota has a 29% chance of beating Miami.

10. New York Giants at St. Louis.
St. Louis (18) will beat New York Giants (27) by 7.1 at home. New York Giants has a 31% chance of beating St. Louis.

11. Buffalo at Oakland.
Buffalo (10) will beat Oakland (24) by 4.3 on the road. Oakland has a 38% chance of beating Buffalo.

12. New England at New York Jets.
New England (1) will beat New York Jets (25) by 12.5 on the road. New York Jets has a 20% chance of beating New England.

13. Detroit at Chicago.
Detroit (15) will beat Chicago (28) by 5.3 on the road. Chicago has a 36% chance of beating Detroit.

14. Tennessee at Jacksonville.
Jacksonville (32) will beat Tennessee (30) by 0.3 at home. Tennessee has a 49% chance of beating Jacksonville.

15. Philadelphia at Washington.
Philadelphia (9) will beat Washington (29) by 7.3 on the road. Washington has a 31% chance of beating Philadelphia.

16. Green Bay at Tampa Bay.
Green Bay (5) will beat Tampa Bay (31) by 9.9 on the road. Tampa Bay has a 25% chance of beating Green Bay.

College Basketball

Games on Friday, December 19, 2014.

1. Eastern Washington at California.
California (64) will beat Eastern Washington (76) by 4.3 at home. Eastern Washington has a 40% chance of beating California.

2. Arizona at UTEP.
Arizona (10) will beat UTEP (39) by 3.6 on the road. UTEP has a 42% chance of beating Arizona.

3. St. Mary’s at St. John’s.
St. John’s (21) will beat St. Mary’s (101) by 12.1 at home. St. Mary’s has a 24% chance of beating St. John’s.

4. Clemson at South Carolina.
South Carolina (23) will beat Clemson (118) by 13.3 at home. Clemson has a 22% chance of beating South Carolina.

5. Northern Arizona at Norfolk State.
Norfolk State (192) will beat Northern Arizona (200) by 3.4 at home. Northern Arizona has a 42% chance of beating Norfolk State.

6. Winthrop at Southeastern Louisiana.
Southeastern Louisiana (235) will beat Winthrop (238) by 3.2 at home. Winthrop has a 42% chance of beating Southeastern Louisiana.

7. Chattanooga at Middle Tennessee State.
Middle Tennessee State (204) will beat Chattanooga (227) by 4.2 at home. Chattanooga has a 40% chance of beating Middle Tennessee State.

8. Tennessee Tech at Tennessee.
Tennessee (110) will beat Tennessee Tech (206) by 9.6 at home. Tennessee Tech has a 29% chance of beating Tennessee.

9. Lipscomb at Princeton.
Princeton (190) will beat Lipscomb (257) by 6.8 at home. Lipscomb has a 34% chance of beating Princeton.

10. Colorado State at Denver.
Colorado State (43) will beat Denver (202) by 9.1 on the road. Denver has a 30% chance of beating Colorado State.

11. Northern Illinois at Dartmouth.
Dartmouth (198) will beat Northern Illinois (264) by 6.7 at home. Northern Illinois has a 35% chance of beating Dartmouth.

12. Eastern Kentucky at Miami (FL).
Miami (FL) (20) will beat Eastern Kentucky (196) by 19.3 at home. Eastern Kentucky has a 14% chance of beating Miami (FL).

13. Siena at Radford.
Siena (149) will beat Radford (260) by 3.1 on the road. Radford has a 43% chance of beating Siena.

14. Niagara at Buffalo.
Buffalo (60) will beat Niagara (261) by 17.1 at home. Niagara has a 16% chance of beating Buffalo.

15. South Dakota State versus CSU Bakersfield at a neutral site.
South Dakota State (178) will beat CSU Bakersfield (293) by 7.0 at a neutral site. CSU Bakersfield has a 34% chance of beating South Dakota State.

16. Seattle at Minnesota.
Minnesota (33) will beat Seattle (265) by 20.3 at home. Seattle has a 13% chance of beating Minnesota.

17. Maryland Eastern Shore at Old Dominion.
Old Dominion (47) will beat Maryland Eastern Shore (273) by 19.1 at home. Maryland Eastern Shore has a 14% chance of beating Old Dominion.

18. Furman at Florida Gulf Coast.
Florida Gulf Coast (82) will beat Furman (279) by 16.6 at home. Furman has a 17% chance of beating Florida Gulf Coast.

19. Jackson State at Tulane.
Tulane (169) will beat Jackson State (301) by 11.5 at home. Jackson State has a 25% chance of beating Tulane.

20. New Orleans at Southern Illinois.
Southern Illinois (224) will beat New Orleans (316) by 10.0 at home. New Orleans has a 28% chance of beating Southern Illinois.

21. Northern Kentucky at Morehead State.
Morehead State (164) will beat Northern Kentucky (307) by 12.5 at home. Northern Kentucky has a 23% chance of beating Morehead State.

22. Idaho State at Utah State.
Utah State (163) will beat Idaho State (310) by 12.7 at home. Idaho State has a 23% chance of beating Utah State.

23. Bethune-Cookman at Mercer.
Mercer (232) will beat Bethune-Cookman (324) by 10.5 at home. Bethune-Cookman has a 27% chance of beating Mercer.

24. Tennessee State at Hampton.
Hampton (287) will beat Tennessee State (333) by 9.0 at home. Tennessee State has a 30% chance of beating Hampton.

25. Texas Pan American at Creighton.
Creighton (83) will beat Texas Pan American (318) by 19.7 at home. Texas Pan American has a 13% chance of beating Creighton.

26. Southern Utah at Loyola Chicago.
Loyola Chicago (187) will beat Southern Utah (332) by 14.8 at home. Southern Utah has a 20% chance of beating Loyola Chicago.

27. Arkansas Pine Bluff at Texas Tech.
Texas Tech (97) will beat Arkansas Pine Bluff (329) by 20.8 at home. Arkansas Pine Bluff has a 12% chance of beating Texas Tech.

28. Alabama A&M at Marquette.
Marquette (79) will beat Alabama A&M (335) by 23.5 at home. Alabama A&M has a 10% chance of beating Marquette.

29. North Carolina A&T at Kent State.
Kent State (157) will beat North Carolina A&T (337) by 17.9 at home. North Carolina A&T has a 15% chance of beating Kent State.

30. North Florida at Florida A&M.
North Florida (159) will beat Florida A&M (345) by 15.4 on the road. Florida A&M has a 19% chance of beating North Florida.

National Basketball Association

Games on Friday, December 19, 2014.

1. Portland at San Antonio.
San Antonio (5) will beat Portland (3) by 2.6 at home. Portland has a 41% chance of beating San Antonio.

2. Chicago at Memphis.
Memphis (2) will beat Chicago (11) by 7.9 at home. Chicago has a 25% chance of beating Memphis.

3. Los Angeles Clippers at Denver.
Los Angeles Clippers (8) will beat Denver (18) by 1.1 on the road. Denver has a 46% chance of beating Los Angeles Clippers.

4. Utah at Orlando.
Orlando (21) will beat Utah (23) by 3.7 at home. Utah has a 37% chance of beating Orlando.

5. Brooklyn at Cleveland.
Cleveland (10) will beat Brooklyn (22) by 8.2 at home. Brooklyn has a 24% chance of beating Cleveland.

6. Washington at Miami.
Washington (12) will beat Miami (24) by 1.5 on the road. Miami has a 45% chance of beating Washington.

7. Oklahoma City at Los Angeles Lakers.
Oklahoma City (13) will beat Los Angeles Lakers (25) by 1.6 on the road. Los Angeles Lakers has a 44% chance of beating Oklahoma City.

8. Minnesota at Boston.
Boston (19) will beat Minnesota (29) by 7.8 at home. Minnesota has a 25% chance of beating Boston.

9. Toronto at Detroit.
Toronto (4) will beat Detroit (28) by 7.3 on the road. Detroit has a 26% chance of beating Toronto.

10. Charlotte at Philadelphia.
Charlotte (26) will beat Philadelphia (30) by 2.6 on the road. Philadelphia has a 41% chance of beating Charlotte.

Brief Summary

These predictions are based on the team rankings, which take the margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule. The number in parenthesis next to each team gives its rank.

The predictions include a uniform constant for home field advantage. For more details, click here.

In addition, games are ranked by the quality of the teams and closeness the expected outcome. Think of this as a viewer’s guide. The larger the number in parenthesis next to the game, the more likely you’ll want to watch.

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