Do you want to win your March Madness pool?

Hi, my name is Ed Feng, and I use data and analytics to better predict sporting events like the NCAA tourney. While football is my primary focus, I’m working on a book on how to win your pool.

While I can’t guarantee that you’ll win this year, analytics will help you maximize your odds each year of taking home the top prize in your pool. To get notified when the book is ready, sign up for my free email newsletter.

Just enter your email address and click “Sign up Now.”

College Basketball

Games on Thursday, March 05, 2015.

1. VCU at Davidson.
Davidson (40) will beat VCU (38) by 3.5 at home. VCU has a 33% chance of beating Davidson.

2. Arkansas at South Carolina.
Arkansas (26) will beat South Carolina (61) by 0.3 on the road. South Carolina has a 49% chance of beating Arkansas.

3. Stanford at Arizona State.
Arizona State (70) will beat Stanford (42) by 0.3 at home. Stanford has a 48% chance of beating Arizona State.

4. Colorado at Washington.
Washington (109) will beat Colorado (113) by 3.9 at home. Colorado has a 32% chance of beating Washington.

5. Wisconsin at Minnesota.
Wisconsin (6) will beat Minnesota (45) by 5.4 on the road. Minnesota has a 25% chance of beating Wisconsin.

6. Western Kentucky at Charlotte.
Charlotte (118) will beat Western Kentucky (129) by 4.6 at home. Western Kentucky has a 28% chance of beating Charlotte.

7. Memphis at Connecticut.
Connecticut (65) will beat Memphis (110) by 7.1 at home. Memphis has a 19% chance of beating Connecticut.

8. South Carolina Upstate at Florida Gulf Coast.
Florida Gulf Coast (150) will beat South Carolina Upstate (154) by 3.8 at home. South Carolina Upstate has a 32% chance of beating Florida Gulf Coast.

9. California at Arizona.
Arizona (2) will beat California (121) by 20.9 at home. California has a 1% chance of beating Arizona.

10. Texas Arlington at Georgia Southern.
Georgia Southern (144) will beat Texas Arlington (176) by 5.3 at home. Texas Arlington has a 26% chance of beating Georgia Southern.

11. American at Lehigh.
Lehigh (165) will beat American (195) by 5.4 at home. American has a 25% chance of beating Lehigh.

12. Boston University at Lafayette.
Lafayette (213) will beat Boston University (210) by 3.5 at home. Boston University has a 33% chance of beating Lafayette.

13. Utah at Washington State.
Utah (8) will beat Washington State (180) by 13.4 on the road. Washington State has a 6% chance of beating Utah.

14. Georgia State at Louisiana Monroe.
Georgia State (74) will beat Louisiana Monroe (173) by 2.6 on the road. Louisiana Monroe has a 37% chance of beating Georgia State.

15. Rice at UTSA.
UTSA (207) will beat Rice (224) by 4.4 at home. Rice has a 29% chance of beating UTSA.

16. Holy Cross at Bucknell.
Bucknell (182) will beat Holy Cross (231) by 6.2 at home. Holy Cross has a 22% chance of beating Bucknell.

17. Southern Illinois versus Missouri State at a neutral site.
Southern Illinois (238) will beat Missouri State (253) by 1.0 at a neutral site. Missouri State has a 45% chance of beating Southern Illinois.

18. Northwestern State at Stephen F. Austin.
Stephen F. Austin (57) will beat Northwestern State (215) by 14.1 at home. Northwestern State has a 6% chance of beating Stephen F. Austin.

19. North Texas at UTEP.
UTEP (82) will beat North Texas (218) by 12.0 at home. North Texas has a 8% chance of beating UTEP.

20. Temple at East Carolina.
Temple (79) will beat East Carolina (225) by 4.9 on the road. East Carolina has a 27% chance of beating Temple.

21. South Alabama at Arkansas State.
Arkansas State (294) will beat South Alabama (289) by 3.5 at home. South Alabama has a 33% chance of beating Arkansas State.

22. Arkansas Little Rock at Louisiana Lafayette.
Louisiana Lafayette (148) will beat Arkansas Little Rock (241) by 8.6 at home. Arkansas Little Rock has a 15% chance of beating Louisiana Lafayette.

23. Southern at Prairie View A&M.
Prairie View A&M (276) will beat Southern (250) by 2.2 at home. Southern has a 39% chance of beating Prairie View A&M.

24. UC Riverside at UC Davis.
UC Davis (99) will beat UC Riverside (236) by 11.5 at home. UC Riverside has a 9% chance of beating UC Davis.

25. Niagara at Siena.
Siena (266) will beat Niagara (293) by 5.0 at home. Niagara has a 27% chance of beating Siena.

26. Idaho at Weber State.
Weber State (273) will beat Idaho (214) by 0.5 at home. Idaho has a 47% chance of beating Weber State.

27. Marshall at Old Dominion.
Old Dominion (66) will beat Marshall (252) by 15.1 at home. Marshall has a 5% chance of beating Old Dominion.

28. Portland State at Northern Arizona.
Northern Arizona (193) will beat Portland State (270) by 7.8 at home. Portland State has a 17% chance of beating Northern Arizona.

29. Cal State Northridge at Long Beach State.
Long Beach State (123) will beat Cal State Northridge (256) by 11.4 at home. Cal State Northridge has a 9% chance of beating Long Beach State.

30. Bradley versus Drake at a neutral site.
Bradley (234) will beat Drake (290) by 3.1 at a neutral site. Drake has a 35% chance of beating Bradley.

31. Texas State at Appalachian State.
Appalachian State (295) will beat Texas State (235) by 0.5 at home. Texas State has a 47% chance of beating Appalachian State.

32. Navy at Colgate.
Colgate (164) will beat Navy (271) by 9.3 at home. Navy has a 13% chance of beating Colgate.

33. UAB at Florida Atlantic.
UAB (142) will beat Florida Atlantic (269) by 3.0 on the road. Florida Atlantic has a 36% chance of beating UAB.

34. Fairfield versus St. Peter’s at a neutral site.
St. Peter’s (192) will beat Fairfield (286) by 4.8 at a neutral site. Fairfield has a 28% chance of beating St. Peter’s.

35. Middle Tennessee State at Florida International.
Middle Tennessee State (174) will beat Florida International (278) by 1.8 on the road. Florida International has a 41% chance of beating Middle Tennessee State.

36. South Carolina State at Bethune-Cookman.
Bethune-Cookman (327) will beat South Carolina State (324) by 3.1 at home. South Carolina State has a 35% chance of beating Bethune-Cookman.

37. Southeastern Louisiana at New Orleans.
New Orleans (315) will beat Southeastern Louisiana (291) by 1.3 at home. Southeastern Louisiana has a 43% chance of beating New Orleans.

38. Norfolk State at Hampton.
Norfolk State (203) will beat Hampton (301) by 1.6 on the road. Hampton has a 42% chance of beating Norfolk State.

39. Cal State Fullerton at UC Irvine.
UC Irvine (89) will beat Cal State Fullerton (299) by 15.7 at home. Cal State Fullerton has a 4% chance of beating UC Irvine.

40. Sam Houston State at Lamar.
Sam Houston State (93) will beat Lamar (298) by 7.9 on the road. Lamar has a 17% chance of beating Sam Houston State.

41. Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech.
Louisiana Tech (67) will beat Southern Miss (309) by 18.7 at home. Southern Miss has a 2% chance of beating Louisiana Tech.

42. Lipscomb at North Florida.
North Florida (141) will beat Lipscomb (304) by 13.1 at home. Lipscomb has a 7% chance of beating North Florida.

43. Sacramento State at Southern Utah.
Sacramento State (220) will beat Southern Utah (310) by 2.1 on the road. Southern Utah has a 40% chance of beating Sacramento State.

44. Alabama A&M at Jackson State.
Jackson State (305) will beat Alabama A&M (328) by 7.3 at home. Alabama A&M has a 19% chance of beating Jackson State.

45. Marist versus Quinnipiac at a neutral site.
Quinnipiac (155) will beat Marist (308) by 8.8 at a neutral site. Marist has a 15% chance of beating Quinnipiac.

46. Eastern Washington at Idaho State.
Eastern Washington (134) will beat Idaho State (314) by 7.1 on the road. Idaho State has a 19% chance of beating Eastern Washington.

47. Houston Baptist at Texas A&M Corpus Christi.
Texas A&M Corpus Christi (229) will beat Houston Baptist (321) by 10.6 at home. Houston Baptist has a 11% chance of beating Texas A&M Corpus Christi.

48. Delaware State at Coppin State.
Delaware State (265) will beat Coppin State (330) by 2.5 on the road. Coppin State has a 38% chance of beating Delaware State.

49. Morgan State at Maryland Eastern Shore.
Maryland Eastern Shore (223) will beat Morgan State (322) by 11.6 at home. Morgan State has a 9% chance of beating Maryland Eastern Shore.

50. North Carolina A&T at North Carolina Central.
North Carolina Central (132) will beat North Carolina A&T (334) by 17.8 at home. North Carolina A&T has a 3% chance of beating North Carolina Central.

51. Abilene Christian at Incarnate Word.
Incarnate Word (227) will beat Abilene Christian (339) by 13.4 at home. Abilene Christian has a 6% chance of beating Incarnate Word.

52. Arkansas Pine Bluff at Mississippi Valley State.
Arkansas Pine Bluff (326) will beat Mississippi Valley State (348) by 2.2 on the road. Mississippi Valley State has a 39% chance of beating Arkansas Pine Bluff.

53. Central Arkansas at Nicholls.
Nicholls (342) will beat Central Arkansas (349) by 9.8 at home. Central Arkansas has a 12% chance of beating Nicholls.

54. Alcorn State at Texas Southern.
Texas Southern (188) will beat Alcorn State (347) by 18.8 at home. Alcorn State has a 2% chance of beating Texas Southern.

55. Savannah State at Florida A&M.
Savannah State (333) will beat Florida A&M (350) by 4.9 on the road. Florida A&M has a 27% chance of beating Savannah State.

56. Alabama State at Grambling State.
Alabama State (292) will beat Grambling State (351) by 12.7 on the road. Grambling State has a 7% chance of beating Alabama State.

National Basketball Association

Games on Thursday, March 05, 2015.

1. Dallas at Portland.
Portland (4) will beat Dallas (9) by 4.6 at home. Dallas has a 34% chance of beating Portland.

2. Oklahoma City at Chicago.
Chicago (12) will beat Oklahoma City (11) by 2.7 at home. Oklahoma City has a 40% chance of beating Chicago.

Brief Summary

These predictions are based on the team rankings, which take the margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule. The number in parenthesis next to each team gives its rank.

The predictions include a uniform constant for home field advantage. For more details, click here.

In addition, games are ranked by the quality of the teams and closeness the expected outcome. Think of this as a viewer’s guide. The larger the number in parenthesis next to the game, the more likely you’ll want to watch.

College Football

Major League Baseball

International Soccer