You’re way smarter than the average sports fan.
It’s 2014, and you know analytics is necessary tool in predicting the outcomes of games and events such as the NCAA tournament.
My name is Ed Feng, and I developed a ranking algorithm for teams based on my Ph.D. research at Stanford. Since 2005, the higher ranked team has won 62.3% of college football bowl games (187-113).
I contribute college football content to Grantland and Bleacher Report, and my numbers have appeared in Sports Illustrated, Deadspin, Five Thirty Eight and Business Week.
Here, you’ll find predictions based on my team rankings that use margin of victory in games. This is one of the predictors that I use in my ensemble predictions, which are available to members.
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This week, we release the picks at 3pm Eastern on Wednesday. To purchase the college football prediction service, click here.
College Football, Week 14
1. Florida at Florida State.
Florida State (23) will beat Florida (20) by 2.0 at home. Florida has a 44% chance of beating Florida State.
2. LSU at Texas A&M.
Texas A&M (21) will beat LSU (17) by 1.7 at home. LSU has a 45% chance of beating Texas A&M.
3. Mississippi State at Mississippi.
Mississippi State (3) will beat Mississippi (7) by 0.5 on the road. Mississippi has a 48% chance of beating Mississippi State.
4. Brigham Young at California.
California (48) will beat Brigham Young (52) by 3.8 at home. Brigham Young has a 39% chance of beating California.
5. Arizona State at Arizona.
Arizona (15) will beat Arizona State (26) by 6.5 at home. Arizona State has a 31% chance of beating Arizona.
6. Arkansas at Missouri.
Arkansas (9) will beat Missouri (18) by 1.4 on the road. Missouri has a 46% chance of beating Arkansas.
7. Auburn at Alabama.
Alabama (1) will beat Auburn (8) by 8.3 at home. Auburn has a 27% chance of beating Alabama.
8. South Carolina at Clemson.
South Carolina (25) will beat Clemson (35) by 1.2 on the road. Clemson has a 46% chance of beating South Carolina.
9. Virginia at Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech (38) will beat Virginia (49) by 6.0 at home. Virginia has a 33% chance of beating Virginia Tech.
10. Utah State at Boise State.
Boise State (36) will beat Utah State (50) by 6.1 at home. Utah State has a 33% chance of beating Boise State.
11. Nebraska at Iowa.
Nebraska (31) will beat Iowa (47) by 1.0 on the road. Iowa has a 47% chance of beating Nebraska.
12. Notre Dame at USC.
USC (28) will beat Notre Dame (43) by 8.0 at home. Notre Dame has a 28% chance of beating USC.
13. Minnesota at Wisconsin.
Wisconsin (16) will beat Minnesota (37) by 10.9 at home. Minnesota has a 21% chance of beating Wisconsin.
14. Stanford at UCLA.
UCLA (13) will beat Stanford (34) by 11.0 at home. Stanford has a 21% chance of beating UCLA.
15. Kentucky at Louisville.
Louisville (29) will beat Kentucky (53) by 9.8 at home. Kentucky has a 24% chance of beating Louisville.
16. Pittsburgh at Miami (FL).
Miami (FL) (32) will beat Pittsburgh (57) by 9.8 at home. Pittsburgh has a 24% chance of beating Miami (FL).
17. Cincinnati at Temple.
Temple (82) will beat Cincinnati (68) by 0.1 at home. Cincinnati has a 50% chance of beating Temple.
18. Purdue at Indiana.
Indiana (78) will beat Purdue (88) by 4.6 at home. Purdue has a 37% chance of beating Indiana.
19. Washington at Washington State.
Washington (40) will beat Washington State (64) by 3.4 on the road. Washington State has a 40% chance of beating Washington.
20. Georgia Tech at Georgia.
Georgia (4) will beat Georgia Tech (24) by 14.3 at home. Georgia Tech has a 15% chance of beating Georgia.
21. Colorado State at Air Force.
Colorado State (42) will beat Air Force (67) by 3.7 on the road. Air Force has a 39% chance of beating Colorado State.
22. Northern Illinois at Western Michigan.
Western Michigan (75) will beat Northern Illinois (90) by 5.7 at home. Northern Illinois has a 33% chance of beating Western Michigan.
23. TCU at Texas.
TCU (5) will beat Texas (30) by 11.6 on the road. Texas has a 20% chance of beating TCU.
24. Hawaii at Fresno State.
Fresno State (95) will beat Hawaii (103) by 4.5 at home. Hawaii has a 37% chance of beating Fresno State.
25. North Carolina State at North Carolina.
North Carolina (55) will beat North Carolina State (86) by 9.8 at home. North Carolina State has a 24% chance of beating North Carolina.
26. Michigan State at Penn State.
Michigan State (22) will beat Penn State (62) by 9.2 on the road. Penn State has a 25% chance of beating Michigan State.
27. Middle Tennessee State at UTEP.
UTEP (105) will beat Middle Tennessee State (94) by 1.1 at home. Middle Tennessee State has a 47% chance of beating UTEP.
28. Rutgers at Maryland.
Maryland (59) will beat Rutgers (89) by 9.5 at home. Rutgers has a 24% chance of beating Maryland.
29. Illinois at Northwestern.
Northwestern (54) will beat Illinois (87) by 10.2 at home. Illinois has a 23% chance of beating Northwestern.
30. Rice at Louisiana Tech.
Louisiana Tech (58) will beat Rice (91) by 9.8 at home. Rice has a 24% chance of beating Louisiana Tech.
31. Utah at Colorado.
Utah (33) will beat Colorado (77) by 8.2 on the road. Colorado has a 27% chance of beating Utah.
32. Wyoming at New Mexico.
New Mexico (118) will beat Wyoming (114) by 2.5 at home. Wyoming has a 43% chance of beating New Mexico.
33. Ball State at Bowling Green.
Bowling Green (122) will beat Ball State (116) by 2.0 at home. Ball State has a 44% chance of beating Bowling Green.
34. West Virginia at Iowa State.
West Virginia (14) will beat Iowa State (71) by 14.6 on the road. Iowa State has a 15% chance of beating West Virginia.
35. Western Kentucky at Marshall.
Marshall (19) will beat Western Kentucky (79) by 20.1 at home. Western Kentucky has a 8% chance of beating Marshall.
36. Kansas at Kansas State.
Kansas State (11) will beat Kansas (73) by 22.4 at home. Kansas has a 6% chance of beating Kansas State.
37. Michigan at Ohio State.
Ohio State (12) will beat Michigan (80) by 22.1 at home. Michigan has a 7% chance of beating Ohio State.
38. Oregon at Oregon State.
Oregon (6) will beat Oregon State (70) by 21.7 on the road. Oregon State has a 7% chance of beating Oregon.
39. Louisiana Monroe at Georgia Southern.
Georgia Southern (60) will beat Louisiana Monroe (107) by 12.3 at home. Louisiana Monroe has a 19% chance of beating Georgia Southern.
40. Texas Tech versus Baylor at a neutral site.
Baylor (2) will beat Texas Tech (74) by 26.8 at a neutral site. Texas Tech has a 4% chance of beating Baylor.
41. Syracuse at Boston College.
Boston College (46) will beat Syracuse (101) by 15.2 at home. Syracuse has a 14% chance of beating Boston College.
42. Old Dominion at Florida Atlantic.
Florida Atlantic (112) will beat Old Dominion (132) by 5.5 at home. Old Dominion has a 34% chance of beating Florida Atlantic.
43. Wake Forest at Duke.
Duke (39) will beat Wake Forest (104) by 18.0 at home. Wake Forest has a 10% chance of beating Duke.
44. UCF at South Florida.
UCF (66) will beat South Florida (113) by 7.0 on the road. South Florida has a 30% chance of beating UCF.
45. Tennessee at Vanderbilt.
Tennessee (27) will beat Vanderbilt (100) by 16.2 on the road. Vanderbilt has a 13% chance of beating Tennessee.
46. Ohio at Miami (OH).
Miami (OH) (141) will beat Ohio (136) by 2.6 at home. Ohio has a 42% chance of beating Miami (OH).
47. San Jose State at San Diego State.
San Diego State (76) will beat San Jose State (124) by 11.4 at home. San Jose State has a 20% chance of beating San Diego State.
48. Navy at South Alabama.
Navy (72) will beat South Alabama (130) by 6.8 on the road. South Alabama has a 31% chance of beating Navy.
49. Buffalo at Massachusetts.
Massachusetts (135) will beat Buffalo (146) by 4.9 at home. Buffalo has a 36% chance of beating Massachusetts.
50. Connecticut at Memphis.
Memphis (41) will beat Connecticut (137) by 23.3 at home. Connecticut has a 6% chance of beating Memphis.
51. East Carolina at Tulsa.
East Carolina (45) will beat Tulsa (151) by 18.1 on the road. Tulsa has a 10% chance of beating East Carolina.
52. UAB at Southern Miss.
UAB (65) will beat Southern Miss (149) by 12.9 on the road. Southern Miss has a 17% chance of beating UAB.
53. Nevada at UNLV.
Nevada (56) will beat UNLV (154) by 16.2 on the road. UNLV has a 13% chance of beating Nevada.
54. North Texas at UTSA.
UTSA (99) will beat North Texas (156) by 13.3 at home. North Texas has a 17% chance of beating UTSA.
55. Idaho at Appalachian State.
Appalachian State (120) will beat Idaho (160) by 11.4 at home. Idaho has a 20% chance of beating Appalachian State.
56. Akron at Kent State.
Akron (119) will beat Kent State (163) by 5.9 on the road. Kent State has a 33% chance of beating Akron.
57. Louisiana Lafayette at Troy.
Louisiana Lafayette (110) will beat Troy (162) by 7.3 on the road. Troy has a 29% chance of beating Louisiana Lafayette.
58. New Mexico State at Arkansas State.
Arkansas State (83) will beat New Mexico State (169) by 20.1 at home. New Mexico State has a 8% chance of beating Arkansas State.
59. Texas State at Georgia State.
Texas State (109) will beat Georgia State (178) by 10.2 on the road. Georgia State has a 23% chance of beating Texas State.
60. Houston at SMU.
Houston (69) will beat SMU (193) by 21.8 on the road. SMU has a 7% chance of beating Houston.
61. Toledo at Eastern Michigan.
Toledo (92) will beat Eastern Michigan (201) by 19.3 on the road. Eastern Michigan has a 9% chance of beating Toledo.
National Football League, Week 13
1. Denver at Kansas City.
Kansas City (2) will beat Denver (3) by 3.3 at home. Denver has a 41% chance of beating Kansas City.
2. San Diego at Baltimore.
Baltimore (11) will beat San Diego (8) by 2.2 at home. San Diego has a 44% chance of beating Baltimore.
3. New England at Green Bay.
New England (1) will beat Green Bay (6) by 2.1 on the road. Green Bay has a 44% chance of beating New England.
4. Philadelphia at Dallas.
Dallas (12) will beat Philadelphia (10) by 1.6 at home. Philadelphia has a 46% chance of beating Dallas.
5. Seattle at San Francisco.
Seattle (4) will beat San Francisco (14) by 1.4 on the road. San Francisco has a 46% chance of beating Seattle.
6. Cleveland at Buffalo.
Buffalo (13) will beat Cleveland (19) by 4.7 at home. Cleveland has a 37% chance of beating Buffalo.
7. New Orleans at Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh (16) will beat New Orleans (20) by 3.9 at home. New Orleans has a 39% chance of beating Pittsburgh.
8. Oakland at St. Louis.
St. Louis (21) will beat Oakland (22) by 4.8 at home. Oakland has a 37% chance of beating St. Louis.
9. Carolina at Minnesota.
Minnesota (25) will beat Carolina (30) by 4.0 at home. Carolina has a 39% chance of beating Minnesota.
10. Tennessee at Houston.
Houston (18) will beat Tennessee (24) by 7.5 at home. Tennessee has a 30% chance of beating Houston.
11. Washington at Indianapolis.
Indianapolis (9) will beat Washington (23) by 9.8 at home. Washington has a 25% chance of beating Indianapolis.
12. Chicago at Detroit.
Detroit (15) will beat Chicago (26) by 8.2 at home. Chicago has a 29% chance of beating Detroit.
13. Miami at New York Jets.
Miami (5) will beat New York Jets (27) by 8.3 on the road. New York Jets has a 28% chance of beating Miami.
14. Arizona at Atlanta.
Arizona (7) will beat Atlanta (29) by 7.5 on the road. Atlanta has a 30% chance of beating Arizona.
15. Cincinnati at Tampa Bay.
Cincinnati (17) will beat Tampa Bay (31) by 5.4 on the road. Tampa Bay has a 35% chance of beating Cincinnati.
16. New York Giants at Jacksonville.
New York Giants (28) will beat Jacksonville (32) by 1.7 on the road. Jacksonville has a 45% chance of beating New York Giants.
These predictions are based on the team rankings, which take the margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule. The number in parenthesis next to each team gives its rank.
The predictions include a uniform constant for home field advantage. For more details, click here.
In addition, games are ranked by the quality of the teams and closeness the expected outcome. Think of this as a viewer’s guide. The larger the number in parenthesis next to the game, the more likely you’ll want to watch.