Predictions

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  • A sample of my football predictions each week of the season. During the 2015 season, these college football predictions predicted the winner in 76.2% of games (583-182, doesn’t include cupcakte FBS vs FCS games).

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The Top 10 Games for College Football’s Opening Week

During the 2015 season, the college football predictions posted here predicted the winner in 76.1% of games (570-179, doesn’t include any FBS vs FCS games).

For the first four weeks, the college football predictions are based on my preseason rankings.

1. North Carolina at Georgia.
Georgia (16) will beat North Carolina (20) by 3.9 at home. North Carolina has a 39% chance of beating Georgia.

2. Mississippi at Florida State.
Florida State (2) will beat Mississippi (8) by 9.1 at home. Mississippi has a 25% chance of beating Florida State.

3. LSU at Wisconsin.
LSU (3) will beat Wisconsin (22) by 4.6 on the road. Wisconsin has a 37% chance of beating LSU.

4. Brigham Young at Arizona.
Brigham Young (27) will beat Arizona (38) by 0.0 on the road. Arizona has a 50% chance of beating Brigham Young.

5. USC versus Alabama at a neutral site.
Alabama (1) will beat USC (19) by 10.8 at a neutral site. USC has a 21% chance of beating Alabama.

6. South Carolina at Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt (44) will beat South Carolina (34) by 0.8 at home. South Carolina has a 48% chance of beating Vanderbilt.

7. Georgia Tech versus Boston College at a neutral site.
Georgia Tech (47) will beat Boston College (55) by 0.9 at a neutral site. Boston College has a 47% chance of beating Georgia Tech.

8. UCLA at Texas A&M.
Texas A&M (10) will beat UCLA (37) by 9.6 at home. UCLA has a 24% chance of beating Texas A&M.

9. Notre Dame at Texas.
Notre Dame (13) will beat Texas (39) by 3.4 on the road. Texas has a 40% chance of beating Notre Dame.

10. Clemson at Auburn.
Clemson (4) will beat Auburn (32) by 6.2 on the road. Auburn has a 32% chance of beating Clemson.

Major League Baseball

These predictions use team rankings that adjust for a team’s cluster luck. They consider starting pitching through a projected FIP but no injuries or other situations.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.

Games on Friday, July 29, 2016.

St. Louis (Mike Leake, 3.87) at Miami (Jose Urena, 4.26).
St. Louis (5) has a 55.8 chance to beat Miami (10).

Colorado (Tyler Chatwood, 4.35) at New York Mets (Steven Matz, 3.37).
New York Mets (8) has a 62.7 chance to beat Colorado (16).

Philadelphia (Vincent Velasquez, 3.64) at Atlanta (Tyrell Jenkins, 5.45).
Philadelphia (28) has a 62.4 chance to beat Atlanta (29).

Pittsburgh (Steven Brault, 4.00) at Milwaukee (Junior Guerra, 4.06).
Pittsburgh (17) has a 55.1 chance to beat Milwaukee (27).

Arizona (Zack Godley, 4.23) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Kenta Maeda, 3.34).
Los Angeles Dodgers (4) has a 69.1 chance to beat Arizona (23).

Washington (Max Scherzer, 2.86) at San Francisco (Jeff Samardzija, 3.55).
Washington (3) has a 60.3 chance to beat San Francisco (9).

Cincinnati (Brandon Finnegan, 4.92) at San Diego (Edwin Jackson, 4.23).
San Diego (24) has a 63.7 chance to beat Cincinnati (30).

Baltimore (Kevin Gausman, 4.00) at Toronto (Marco Estrada, 4.45).
Toronto (6) has a 52.5 chance to beat Baltimore (11).

New York Yankees (Ivan Nova, 4.56) at Tampa Bay (Jake Odorizzi, 3.83).
Tampa Bay (15) has a 58.2 chance to beat New York Yankees (18).

Oakland (Kendall Graveman, 4.37) at Cleveland (Trevor Bauer, 4.07).
Cleveland (7) has a 64.9 chance to beat Oakland (25).

Houston (Collin McHugh, 3.65) at Detroit (Matt Boyd, 4.44).
Houston (12) has a 54.8 chance to beat Detroit (14).

Kansas City (Edinson Volquez, 4.29) at Texas (A.J. Griffin, 4.87).
Kansas City (20) has a 52.3 chance to beat Texas (19).

Chicago White Sox (Jose Quintana, 3.40) at Minnesota (Ricky Nolasco, 4.25).
Chicago White Sox (21) has a 58.8 chance to beat Minnesota (26).

Boston (Rick Porcello, 3.75) at Los Angeles Angels (Tim Lincecum, 4.47).
Boston (2) has a 66.9 chance to beat Los Angeles Angels (22).

Seattle (Hisashi Iwakuma, 3.92) at Chicago Cubs (Jon Lester, 3.37).
Chicago Cubs (1) has a 66.5 chance to beat Seattle (13).

National Football League

Check out how predicting Super Bowl 50 was the ultimate test between eyes and numbers.

National Basketball Association

To see my numbers prior to the start of the playoffs, check out the interactive visual for NBA win probabilities.

International Soccer

My rankings were a part of an academic study on making football predictions.

To check out my Euro 2016 win probabilities before the knock out stage started, click here.

College Basketball