Predictions

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Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the xFIP for each starting pitcher. The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.

Win probabilities are too high for Oakland but too low for Tampa Bay.

Games on Friday, July 25, 2014.

St. Louis (Joe Kelly, 3.76, 25.1 IP) at Chicago Cubs (Travis Wood, 4.68).
St. Louis (16) has a 59.7 chance to beat Chicago Cubs (26).

Arizona (Wade Miley, 3.29) at Philadelphia (Kyle Kendrick, 4.40).
Arizona (30) has a 53.3 chance to beat Philadelphia (28).

Washington (Tanner Roark, 3.81) at Cincinnati (Alfredo Simon, 3.95).
Washington (5) has a 52.0 chance to beat Cincinnati (14).

San Diego (Jesse Hahn, 2.94, 40.2 IP) at Atlanta (Alex Wood, 3.25).
Atlanta (15) has a 55.5 chance to beat San Diego (24).

New York Mets (Zack Wheeler, 3.43) at Milwaukee (Yovani Gallardo, 3.71).
Milwaukee (13) has a 52.3 chance to beat New York Mets (18).

Pittsburgh (Charlie Morton, 3.79) at Colorado (Brett Anderson, 3.82, 27.0 IP).
Pittsburgh (17) has a 54.6 chance to beat Colorado (29).

Los Angeles Dodgers (Zack Greinke, 2.80) at San Francisco (Tim Lincecum, 3.65).
Los Angeles Dodgers (11) has a 52.3 chance to beat San Francisco (10).

Toronto (Mark Buehrle, 4.29) at New York Yankees (Hiroki Kuroda, 3.83).
New York Yankees (20) has a 52.2 chance to beat Toronto (7).

Boston (Jon Lester, 3.07) at Tampa Bay (David Price, 2.77).
Tampa Bay (12) has a 56.8 chance to beat Boston (19).

Oakland (Jason Hammel, 3.39) at Texas (Jerome Williams, 4.05, 47.2 IP).
Oakland (1) has a 73.3 chance to beat Texas (27).

Chicago White Sox (John Danks, 4.72) at Minnesota (Kevin Correia, 4.90).
Minnesota (21) has a 52.2 chance to beat Chicago White Sox (22).

Cleveland (Josh Tomlin, 3.13) at Kansas City (Yordano Ventura, 3.69).
Cleveland (8) has a 51.0 chance to beat Kansas City (9).

Detroit (Drew Smyly, 4.18) at Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Skaggs, 3.76).
Los Angeles Angels (2) has a 58.7 chance to beat Detroit (4).

Baltimore (Kevin Gausman, 4.20, 42.1 IP) at Seattle (Felix Hernandez, 2.46).
Seattle (3) has a 69.4 chance to beat Baltimore (6).

Miami (Brad Hand, 4.77, 46.1 IP) at Houston (Dallas Keuchel, 3.21).
Houston (25) has a 62.0 chance to beat Miami (23).

Brief Summary

These predictions are based on the team rankings, which take the margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule. The number in parenthesis next to each team gives its rank.

The predictions include a uniform constant for home field advantage. For more details, click here.

In addition, games are ranked by the quality of the teams and closeness the expected outcome. Think of this as a viewer’s guide. The larger the number in parenthesis next to the game, the more likely you’ll want to watch.

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