Predictions

You’re way smarter than the average sports fan.

It’s 2015, and you know analytics is a necessary tool in predicting the outcomes of games and events such as the NCAA tournament.

My name is Ed Feng, and I developed a ranking algorithm for teams based on my Ph.D. research at Stanford. From 2005 through 2013, the higher ranked team has won 62.3% of college football bowl games (187-113).

I contribute college football content to Grantland, Deadspin and Bleacher Report, and my numbers have appeared in Sports Illustrated, Five Thirty Eight and Business Week.

Here, you’ll find predictions based on my team rankings that use margin of victory in games. To learn more about my ranking algorithm, click here.

The top 5 killer articles in football analytics

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NBA Series Win Probabilities

For all playoff odds through the championship round, check out this interactive visual.

Calculations based on market rankings that consider closing point spreads since late February.

New Orleans vs Golden State.
Golden State, the home team up 1-0, has a 95.4 percent chance of winning the series.

Dallas vs Houston.
Houston, the home team up 1-0, has a 74.8 percent chance of winning the series.

San Antonio vs Los Angeles Clippers.
Los Angeles Clippers, the home team up 1-0, has a 52.9 percent chance of winning the series.

Portland vs Memphis.
Memphis, the home team up 1-0, has a 68.4 percent chance of winning the series.

Brooklyn vs Atlanta.
Atlanta, the home team up 1-0, has a 86.3 percent chance of winning the series.

Boston vs Cleveland.
Cleveland, the home team up 1-0, has a 94.2 percent chance of winning the series.

Milwaukee vs Chicago.
Chicago, the home team up 1-0, has a 79.9 percent chance of winning the series.

Washington vs Toronto.
Washington, the away team up 1-0, has a 66.2 percent chance of winning the series.

National Basketball Association

Calculations based on market rankings that consider closing point spreads since late February.

Games on Monday, April 20, 2015.

1. Milwaukee at Chicago.
Chicago (14) will beat Milwaukee (20) by 6.9 at home. Milwaukee has a 27% chance of beating Chicago.

2. New Orleans at Golden State.
Golden State (1) will beat New Orleans (15) by 11.8 at home. New Orleans has a 16% chance of beating Golden State.

Brief Summary

These predictions are based on the team rankings, which take the margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule. The number in parenthesis next to each team gives its rank.

The predictions include a uniform constant for home field advantage. For more details, click here.

In addition, games are ranked by the quality of the teams and closeness the expected outcome. Think of this as a viewer’s guide. The larger the number in parenthesis next to the game, the more likely you’ll want to watch.

College Football

Major League Baseball

International Soccer