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College Football

cover_full_350Win total predictions for the 2015 college football season are now available.

These win totals are based on The Power Rank’s preseason college football rankings.

From 2005 through 2014, these rankings, which do not consider any regular season data, predicted the game winner in 70.4% of college football games.

This report contains win totals for FBS teams as well as two teams with value in the markets. In addition, it discusses why it’s possible to make accurate preseason predictions as well as two overrated teams.

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College Football

1. Arizona State at Texas A&M.
Texas A&M (9) will beat Arizona State (20) by 5.6 at home. Arizona State has a 34% chance of beating Texas A&M.

2. Michigan at Utah.
Utah (35) will beat Michigan (34) by 3.0 at home. Michigan has a 41% chance of beating Utah.

3. Wisconsin versus Alabama at a neutral site.
Alabama (1) will beat Wisconsin (14) by 8.2 at a neutral site. Wisconsin has a 27% chance of beating Alabama.

4. Ohio State at Virginia Tech.
Ohio State (2) will beat Virginia Tech (22) by 5.7 on the road. Virginia Tech has a 34% chance of beating Ohio State.

5. North Carolina versus South Carolina at a neutral site.
South Carolina (29) will beat North Carolina (39) by 3.2 at a neutral site. North Carolina has a 41% chance of beating South Carolina.

6. Brigham Young at Nebraska.
Nebraska (32) will beat Brigham Young (42) by 5.9 at home. Brigham Young has a 33% chance of beating Nebraska.

7. Texas at Notre Dame.
Notre Dame (12) will beat Texas (40) by 10.8 at home. Texas has a 22% chance of beating Notre Dame.

8. Louisville versus Auburn at a neutral site.
Auburn (25) will beat Louisville (45) by 5.8 at a neutral site. Louisville has a 33% chance of beating Auburn.

9. Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt (54) will beat Western Kentucky (59) by 4.7 at home. Western Kentucky has a 36% chance of beating Vanderbilt.

10. Washington at Boise State.
Boise State (26) will beat Washington (52) by 11.0 at home. Washington has a 21% chance of beating Boise State.

11. Penn State at Temple.
Penn State (38) will beat Temple (58) by 2.3 on the road. Temple has a 43% chance of beating Penn State.

12. TCU at Minnesota.
TCU (5) will beat Minnesota (47) by 10.8 on the road. Minnesota has a 21% chance of beating TCU.

13. Georgia Southern at West Virginia.
West Virginia (21) will beat Georgia Southern (53) by 12.5 at home. Georgia Southern has a 18% chance of beating West Virginia.

14. Stanford at Northwestern.
Stanford (13) will beat Northwestern (56) by 9.2 on the road. Northwestern has a 25% chance of beating Stanford.

15. Purdue at Marshall.
Marshall (50) will beat Purdue (72) by 7.7 at home. Purdue has a 28% chance of beating Marshall.

16. Virginia at UCLA.
UCLA (7) will beat Virginia (63) by 18.0 at home. Virginia has a 10% chance of beating UCLA.

17. Michigan State at Western Michigan.
Michigan State (16) will beat Western Michigan (78) by 11.7 on the road. Western Michigan has a 20% chance of beating Michigan State.

18. Arkansas State at USC.
USC (19) will beat Arkansas State (82) by 18.0 at home. Arkansas State has a 10% chance of beating USC.

19. Louisiana Lafayette at Kentucky.
Kentucky (65) will beat Louisiana Lafayette (90) by 8.4 at home. Louisiana Lafayette has a 27% chance of beating Kentucky.

20. Louisiana Monroe at Georgia.
Georgia (6) will beat Louisiana Monroe (92) by 24.8 at home. Louisiana Monroe has a 5% chance of beating Georgia.

21. Colorado at Hawaii.
Colorado (75) will beat Hawaii (99) by 3.3 on the road. Hawaii has a 40% chance of beating Colorado.

22. Bowling Green at Tennessee.
Tennessee (24) will beat Bowling Green (95) by 21.9 at home. Bowling Green has a 7% chance of beating Tennessee.

23. Oklahoma State at Central Michigan.
Oklahoma State (28) will beat Central Michigan (94) by 14.4 on the road. Central Michigan has a 15% chance of beating Oklahoma State.

24. Florida International at UCF.
UCF (66) will beat Florida International (101) by 11.4 at home. Florida International has a 20% chance of beating UCF.

25. Baylor at SMU.
Baylor (4) will beat SMU (116) by 28.1 on the road. SMU has a 3% chance of beating Baylor.

26. Florida Atlantic at Tulsa.
Tulsa (91) will beat Florida Atlantic (111) by 8.5 at home. Florida Atlantic has a 27% chance of beating Tulsa.

27. Kent State at Illinois.
Illinois (76) will beat Kent State (106) by 11.2 at home. Kent State has a 21% chance of beating Illinois.

28. UTEP at Arkansas.
Arkansas (15) will beat UTEP (108) by 26.1 at home. UTEP has a 4% chance of beating Arkansas.

29. Texas State at Florida State.
Florida State (17) will beat Texas State (107) by 25.6 at home. Texas State has a 4% chance of beating Florida State.

30. Duke at Tulane.
Duke (48) will beat Tulane (103) by 10.4 on the road. Tulane has a 22% chance of beating Duke.

31. Akron at Oklahoma.
Oklahoma (11) will beat Akron (112) by 28.2 at home. Akron has a 3% chance of beating Oklahoma.

32. UTSA at Arizona.
Arizona (36) will beat UTSA (110) by 21.6 at home. UTSA has a 7% chance of beating Arizona.

33. Charlotte at Georgia State.
Georgia State (128) will beat Charlotte (127) by 1.6 at home. Charlotte has a 45% chance of beating Georgia State.

34. Mississippi State at Southern Miss.
Mississippi State (31) will beat Southern Miss (115) by 18.6 on the road. Southern Miss has a 10% chance of beating Mississippi State.

35. New Mexico State at Florida.
Florida (33) will beat New Mexico State (119) by 25.2 at home. New Mexico State has a 5% chance of beating Florida.

36. Ohio at Idaho.
Ohio (96) will beat Idaho (124) by 5.4 on the road. Idaho has a 34% chance of beating Ohio.

37. Troy at North Carolina State.
North Carolina State (62) will beat Troy (120) by 17.5 at home. Troy has a 11% chance of beating North Carolina State.

38. UNLV at Northern Illinois.
Northern Illinois (77) will beat UNLV (125) by 17.3 at home. UNLV has a 11% chance of beating Northern Illinois.

39. Old Dominion at Eastern Michigan.
Old Dominion (105) will beat Eastern Michigan (126) by 8.0 on the road. Eastern Michigan has a 28% chance of beating Old Dominion.

Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the projected FIP (an ERA statistics that isolates the pitcher’s contribution from defense and luck) for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.

These predictions do not consider injuries to players.

Since May 29, 2015, the team with the higher win probability has won 719 of 1262 games for a win percentage of 57.0%.

The team favored by the markets has won 746.5 of 1262 games for a win percentage of 59.2%.

Games on Wednesday, September 02, 2015.

Miami (Adam Conley, 4.32, 32.2 IP) at Atlanta (Williams Perez, 4.61, 81.0 IP).
Miami (26) has a 57.1 chance to beat Atlanta (29).

Cincinnati (Raisel Iglesias, 4.27, 80.1 IP) at Chicago Cubs (Jason Hammel, 3.83).
Chicago Cubs (11) has a 59.3 chance to beat Cincinnati (23).

Philadelphia (Aaron Nola, 4.46, 49.2 IP) at New York Mets (Matt Harvey, 3.27).
New York Mets (17) has a 72.0 chance to beat Philadelphia (30).

Pittsburgh (Jeff Locke, 4.25) at Milwaukee (Zach Davies, 4.73, 0 IP).
Pittsburgh (10) has a 61.3 chance to beat Milwaukee (27).

Washington (Max Scherzer, 2.70) at St. Louis (Michael Wacha, 3.33).
St. Louis (7) has a 50.1 chance to beat Washington (12).

Arizona (Chase Anderson, 4.06) at Colorado (Jon Gray, 4.26, 0 IP).
Arizona (22) has a 56.6 chance to beat Colorado (28).

San Francisco (Mike Leake, 3.60) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw, 2.26).
Los Angeles Dodgers (5) has a 65.3 chance to beat San Francisco (13).

Los Angeles Angels (Andrew Heaney, 3.92, 72.1 IP) at Oakland (Sonny Gray, 3.43).
Oakland (6) has a 58.4 chance to beat Los Angeles Angels (15).

New York Yankees (Masahiro Tanaka, 3.63) at Boston (Henry Owens, 4.48, 29.0 IP).
New York Yankees (3) has a 61.2 chance to beat Boston (18).

Tampa Bay (Erasmo Ramirez, 4.34) at Baltimore (Kevin Gausman, 4.08, 80.0 IP).
Baltimore (14) has a 50.4 chance to beat Tampa Bay (8).

Cleveland (Trevor Bauer, 4.25) at Toronto (R.A. Dickey, 4.48).
Toronto (1) has a 54.3 chance to beat Cleveland (4).

Detroit (Randy Wolf, 4.57, 14.0 IP) at Kansas City (Yordano Ventura, 3.80).
Kansas City (9) has a 59.9 chance to beat Detroit (16).

Seattle (Taijuan Walker, 4.03) at Houston (Scott Kazmir, 3.61).
Houston (2) has a 61.8 chance to beat Seattle (19).

Chicago White Sox (Carlos Rodon, 4.38) at Minnesota (Tommy Milone, 4.66).
Chicago White Sox (21) has a 52.0 chance to beat Minnesota (24).

Texas (Cole Hamels, 3.55) at San Diego (Ian Kennedy, 4.04).
Texas (20) has a 55.7 chance to beat San Diego (25).

National Basketball Association

nba_playoffs_2015Check out my 2015 NBA playoff win probabilities. Calculations based on market rankings that consider closing point spreads since late February.

For more details, click here.

National Football League

International Soccer