Predictions

Introducing a new prediction service for college football

This new prediction service for college football goes beyond these predictions based on team rankings. We are 11-7-1 this season.

To learn more, click here.

National Football League, Week 3

These predictions are based on preseason rankings that harness the wisdom of crowds. To learn more about these rankings, click here.

1. Denver at Seattle. (0.68)
Seattle (1) will beat Denver (2) by 4.3 at home. Denver has a 38% chance of beating Seattle.

2. Pittsburgh at Carolina. (0.52)
Carolina (13) will beat Pittsburgh (14) by 2.7 at home. Pittsburgh has a 43% chance of beating Carolina.

3. San Francisco at Arizona. (0.46)
San Francisco (5) will beat Arizona (12) by 2.5 on the road. Arizona has a 43% chance of beating San Francisco.

4. Tampa Bay at Atlanta. (0.43)
Atlanta (18) will beat Tampa Bay (19) by 3.7 at home. Tampa Bay has a 40% chance of beating Atlanta.

5. Green Bay at Detroit. (0.43)
Green Bay (6) will beat Detroit (17) by 3.0 on the road. Detroit has a 42% chance of beating Green Bay.

6. Dallas at St. Louis. (0.41)
St. Louis (20) will beat Dallas (24) by 3.4 at home. Dallas has a 41% chance of beating St. Louis.

7. Kansas City at Miami. (0.40)
Kansas City (15) will beat Miami (21) by 0.1 on the road. Miami has a 50% chance of beating Kansas City.

8. Chicago at New York Jets. (0.37)
Chicago (10) will beat New York Jets (23) by 1.7 on the road. New York Jets has a 45% chance of beating Chicago.

9. Houston at New York Giants. (0.33)
New York Giants (22) will beat Houston (28) by 5.1 at home. Houston has a 36% chance of beating New York Giants.

10. Washington at Philadelphia. (0.30)
Philadelphia (7) will beat Washington (25) by 10.1 at home. Washington has a 24% chance of beating Philadelphia.

11. Tennessee at Cincinnati. (0.27)
Cincinnati (8) will beat Tennessee (27) by 10.6 at home. Tennessee has a 24% chance of beating Cincinnati.

12. Minnesota at New Orleans. (0.27)
New Orleans (3) will beat Minnesota (26) by 13.3 at home. Minnesota has a 19% chance of beating New Orleans.

13. Baltimore at Cleveland. (0.24)
Baltimore (16) will beat Cleveland (29) by 4.2 on the road. Cleveland has a 39% chance of beating Baltimore.

14. San Diego at Buffalo. (0.23)
San Diego (11) will beat Buffalo (30) by 5.3 on the road. Buffalo has a 36% chance of beating San Diego.

15. Indianapolis at Jacksonville. (0.20)
Indianapolis (9) will beat Jacksonville (31) by 7.2 on the road. Jacksonville has a 31% chance of beating Indianapolis.

16. Oakland at New England. (0.13)
New England (4) will beat Oakland (32) by 17.4 at home. Oakland has a 13% chance of beating New England.

College Football

These predictions are based on my preseason model that has picked 70.5% of game winners since 2005. These rankings, without knowledge of any regular season games, have picked 60.3% of bowl games since 2005. For more details, click here.

1. Northern Illinois at Arkansas. (0.65)
Arkansas (39) will beat Northern Illinois (43) by 3.8 at home. Northern Illinois has a 39% chance of beating Arkansas.

2. Utah at Michigan. (0.61)
Michigan (19) will beat Utah (40) by 7.7 at home. Utah has a 28% chance of beating Michigan.

3. Mississippi State at LSU. (0.59)
LSU (5) will beat Mississippi State (22) by 12.8 at home. Mississippi State has a 18% chance of beating LSU.

4. Miami (FL) at Nebraska. (0.59)
Miami (FL) (33) will beat Nebraska (45) by 0.1 on the road. Nebraska has a 50% chance of beating Miami (FL).

5. Iowa at Pittsburgh. (0.56)
Iowa (37) will beat Pittsburgh (49) by 0.0 on the road. Pittsburgh has a 50% chance of beating Iowa.

6. Auburn at Kansas State. (0.55)
Auburn (6) will beat Kansas State (35) by 7.1 on the road. Kansas State has a 30% chance of beating Auburn.

7. Indiana at Missouri. (0.53)
Missouri (31) will beat Indiana (51) by 7.9 at home. Indiana has a 28% chance of beating Missouri.

8. Florida at Alabama. (0.51)
Alabama (2) will beat Florida (26) by 20.2 at home. Florida has a 8% chance of beating Alabama.

9. Clemson at Florida State. (0.49)
Florida State (1) will beat Clemson (30) by 22.4 at home. Clemson has a 6% chance of beating Florida State.

10. Maryland at Syracuse. (0.49)
Syracuse (60) will beat Maryland (54) by 0.4 at home. Maryland has a 49% chance of beating Syracuse.

11. Rutgers at Navy. (0.48)
Navy (57) will beat Rutgers (63) by 4.8 at home. Rutgers has a 36% chance of beating Navy.

12. Oregon at Washington State. (0.47)
Oregon (3) will beat Washington State (42) by 14.0 on the road. Washington State has a 16% chance of beating Oregon.

13. Oklahoma at West Virginia. (0.47)
Oklahoma (7) will beat West Virginia (46) by 9.8 on the road. West Virginia has a 24% chance of beating Oklahoma.

14. Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech. (0.46)
Virginia Tech (34) will beat Georgia Tech (58) by 9.3 at home. Georgia Tech has a 25% chance of beating Virginia Tech.

15. Bowling Green at Wisconsin. (0.38)
Wisconsin (15) will beat Bowling Green (61) by 15.3 at home. Bowling Green has a 14% chance of beating Wisconsin.

16. Georgia Southern at South Alabama. (0.36)
South Alabama (81) will beat Georgia Southern (82) by 3.0 at home. Georgia Southern has a 41% chance of beating South Alabama.

17. South Carolina at Vanderbilt. (0.35)
South Carolina (11) will beat Vanderbilt (65) by 12.2 on the road. Vanderbilt has a 19% chance of beating South Carolina.

18. California at Arizona. (0.34)
Arizona (25) will beat California (69) by 14.0 at home. California has a 16% chance of beating Arizona.

19. Virginia at Brigham Young. (0.33)
Brigham Young (23) will beat Virginia (72) by 14.5 at home. Virginia has a 15% chance of beating Brigham Young.

20. San Jose State at Minnesota. (0.31)
Minnesota (50) will beat San Jose State (77) by 10.1 at home. San Jose State has a 23% chance of beating Minnesota.

21. Louisiana Lafayette at Boise State. (0.31)
Boise State (36) will beat Louisiana Lafayette (76) by 13.1 at home. Louisiana Lafayette has a 17% chance of beating Boise State.

22. Army at Wake Forest. (0.27)
Wake Forest (97) will beat Army (93) by 2.3 at home. Army has a 43% chance of beating Wake Forest.

23. North Carolina at East Carolina. (0.27)
North Carolina (41) will beat East Carolina (78) by 7.2 on the road. East Carolina has a 30% chance of beating North Carolina.

24. Central Michigan at Kansas. (0.26)
Kansas (83) will beat Central Michigan (96) by 5.3 at home. Central Michigan has a 35% chance of beating Kansas.

25. Texas A&M at SMU. (0.25)
Texas A&M (8) will beat SMU (79) by 18.5 on the road. SMU has a 10% chance of beating Texas A&M.

26. Ball State at Toledo. (0.22)
Toledo (52) will beat Ball State (87) by 12.0 at home. Ball State has a 19% chance of beating Toledo.

27. Utah State at Arkansas State. (0.22)
Utah State (70) will beat Arkansas State (92) by 2.6 on the road. Arkansas State has a 42% chance of beating Utah State.

28. Connecticut at South Florida. (0.21)
South Florida (74) will beat Connecticut (94) by 8.3 at home. Connecticut has a 27% chance of beating South Florida.

29. San Diego State at Oregon State. (0.21)
Oregon State (29) will beat San Diego State (84) by 17.2 at home. San Diego State has a 11% chance of beating Oregon State.

30. Florida Atlantic at Wyoming. (0.20)
Wyoming (104) will beat Florida Atlantic (106) by 4.2 at home. Florida Atlantic has a 38% chance of beating Wyoming.

31. Hawaii at Colorado. (0.19)
Colorado (85) will beat Hawaii (102) by 6.7 at home. Hawaii has a 31% chance of beating Colorado.

32. Troy at Georgia. (0.14)
Georgia (9) will beat Troy (103) by 27.5 at home. Troy has a 4% chance of beating Georgia.

33. Middle Tennessee State at Memphis. (0.12)
Memphis (90) will beat Middle Tennessee State (109) by 7.9 at home. Middle Tennessee State has a 28% chance of beating Memphis.

34. Appalachian State at Southern Miss. (0.09)
Southern Miss (117) will beat Appalachian State (118) by 4.7 at home. Appalachian State has a 36% chance of beating Southern Miss.

35. Marshall at Akron. (0.04)
Marshall (64) will beat Akron (110) by 8.4 on the road. Akron has a 27% chance of beating Marshall.

36. UNLV at Houston. (0.01)
Houston (38) will beat UNLV (112) by 22.0 at home. UNLV has a 7% chance of beating Houston.

37. Old Dominion at Rice. (0.01)
Rice (91) will beat Old Dominion (116) by 10.8 at home. Old Dominion has a 22% chance of beating Rice.

38. Tulane at Duke. (-0.00)
Duke (56) will beat Tulane (113) by 18.7 at home. Tulane has a 10% chance of beating Duke.

39. New Mexico at New Mexico State. (-0.03)
New Mexico State (127) will beat New Mexico (125) by 0.0 at home. New Mexico has a 50% chance of beating New Mexico State.

40. Idaho at Ohio. (-0.06)
Ohio (100) will beat Idaho (119) by 11.3 at home. Idaho has a 21% chance of beating Ohio.

41. Louisville at Florida International. (-0.13)
Louisville (53) will beat Florida International (120) by 18.4 on the road. Florida International has a 10% chance of beating Louisville.

42. Eastern Michigan at Michigan State. (-0.15)
Michigan State (16) will beat Eastern Michigan (126) by 39.7 at home. Eastern Michigan has a 1% chance of beating Michigan State.

43. Miami (OH) at Cincinnati. (-0.15)
Cincinnati (47) will beat Miami (OH) (123) by 26.9 at home. Miami (OH) has a 4% chance of beating Cincinnati.

44. Massachusetts at Penn State. (-0.16)
Penn State (48) will beat Massachusetts (122) by 26.3 at home. Massachusetts has a 4% chance of beating Penn State.

45. Texas State at Illinois. (-0.20)
Illinois (67) will beat Texas State (124) by 23.0 at home. Texas State has a 6% chance of beating Illinois.

46. Georgia State at Washington. (-0.21)
Washington (20) will beat Georgia State (128) by 41.3 at home. Georgia State has a 1% chance of beating Washington.

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Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the xFIP for each starting pitcher, with innings pitched if you should worry about small sample size.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank. Win probabilities are too high for Oakland but too low for Tampa Bay.

Games on Friday, September 19, 2014.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw, 2.09) at Chicago Cubs (Edwin Jackson, 4.04).
Los Angeles Dodgers (7) has a 68.8 chance to beat Chicago Cubs (28).

Milwaukee (Yovani Gallardo, 3.73) at Pittsburgh (Jeff Locke, 3.78).
Pittsburgh (12) has a 56.0 chance to beat Milwaukee (18).

Washington (Doug Fister, 3.88) at Miami (Tom Koehler, 4.18).
Washington (5) has a 58.3 chance to beat Miami (20).

New York Mets (Zack Wheeler, 3.50) at Atlanta (Julio Teheran, 3.74).
Atlanta (15) has a 52.3 chance to beat New York Mets (17).

Arizona (Chase Anderson, 3.68, 109.1 IP) at Colorado (Jordan Lyles, 4.01).
Colorado (29) has a 53.0 chance to beat Arizona (30).

Cincinnati (David Holmberg, 6.21, 18.0 IP) at St. Louis (John Lackey, 3.45).
St. Louis (14) has a 73.3 chance to beat Cincinnati (19).

San Francisco (Tim Hudson, 3.52) at San Diego (Odrisamer Despaigne, 4.12, 89.1 IP).
San Francisco (11) has a 57.0 chance to beat San Diego (24).

Toronto (Mark Buehrle, 4.15) at New York Yankees (Hiroki Kuroda, 3.67).
New York Yankees (16) has a 54.1 chance to beat Toronto (10).

Boston (Allen Webster, 5.27, 46.1 IP) at Baltimore (Kevin Gausman, 3.98, 103.1 IP).
Baltimore (4) has a 73.1 chance to beat Boston (23).

Chicago White Sox (Jose Quintana, 3.44) at Tampa Bay (Jeremy Hellickson, 4.02, 57.0 IP).
Tampa Bay (9) has a 55.8 chance to beat Chicago White Sox (26).

Cleveland (Trevor Bauer, 4.12) at Minnesota (Phil Hughes, 3.14).
Minnesota (21) has a 56.4 chance to beat Cleveland (13).

Detroit (Justin Verlander, 4.26) at Kansas City (Jason Vargas, 3.97).
Kansas City (8) has a 53.0 chance to beat Detroit (6).

Seattle (Taijuan Walker, 4.43, 24.1 IP) at Houston (Brad Peacock, 4.56).
Seattle (3) has a 59.7 chance to beat Houston (22).

Texas (Lisalverto Bonilla, 5.67, 9.2 IP) at Los Angeles Angels (Hector Santiago, 4.56).
Los Angeles Angels (2) has a 75.7 chance to beat Texas (27).

Philadelphia (David Buchanan, 4.11, 105.2 IP) at Oakland (Jon Lester, 3.09).
Oakland (1) has a 74.5 chance to beat Philadelphia (25).

Brief Summary

These predictions are based on the team rankings, which take the margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule. The number in parenthesis next to each team gives its rank.

The predictions include a uniform constant for home field advantage. For more details, click here.

In addition, games are ranked by the quality of the teams and closeness the expected outcome. Think of this as a viewer’s guide. The larger the number in parenthesis next to the game, the more likely you’ll want to watch.

National Basketball Association

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