Predictions

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Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the xFIP for each starting pitcher, with innings pitched if you should worry about small sample size.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank. Win probabilities are too high for Oakland but too low for Tampa Bay.

Games on Tuesday, July 29, 2014.

Arizona (Trevor Cahill, 3.90, 50.1 IP) at Cincinnati (Mike Leake, 3.41).
Cincinnati (17) has a 64.6 chance to beat Arizona (30).

Washington (Stephen Strasburg, 2.52) at Miami (Henderson Alvarez, 3.51).
Washington (5) has a 61.4 chance to beat Miami (23).

Philadelphia (Cole Hamels, 3.18) at New York Mets (Dillon Gee, 3.97, 69.2 IP).
New York Mets (16) has a 54.8 chance to beat Philadelphia (29).

Colorado (Jorge de la Rosa, 4.10) at Chicago Cubs (Edwin Jackson, 3.94).
Chicago Cubs (25) has a 55.2 chance to beat Colorado (28).

St. Louis (Lance Lynn, 3.80) at San Diego (Tyson Ross, 2.95).
San Diego (24) has a 54.5 chance to beat St. Louis (13).

Atlanta (Aaron Harang, 4.14) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Josh Beckett, 3.63).
Los Angeles Dodgers (8) has a 58.6 chance to beat Atlanta (12).

Pittsburgh (Francisco Liriano, 3.70) at San Francisco (Tim Hudson, 3.33).
San Francisco (15) has a 56.9 chance to beat Pittsburgh (19).

Los Angeles Angels (Jered Weaver, 4.25) at Baltimore (Chris Tillman, 4.72).
Los Angeles Angels (2) has a 56.2 chance to beat Baltimore (7).

Seattle (Hisashi Iwakuma, 2.86) at Cleveland (Trevor Bauer, 3.86).
Seattle (3) has a 59.5 chance to beat Cleveland (9).

Chicago White Sox (Jose Quintana, 3.28) at Detroit (Anibal Sanchez, 3.79).
Detroit (4) has a 56.5 chance to beat Chicago White Sox (18).

Toronto (Marcus Stroman, 3.36, 67.1 IP) at Boston (Rubby de la Rosa, 3.70, 48.1 IP).
Toronto (6) has a 55.9 chance to beat Boston (21).

New York Yankees (Brandon McCarthy, 2.89) at Texas (Nick Martinez, 5.71, 72.1 IP).
New York Yankees (20) has a 71.2 chance to beat Texas (27).

Minnesota (Kyle Gibson, 4.17) at Kansas City (James Shields, 3.53).
Kansas City (10) has a 61.8 chance to beat Minnesota (22).

Oakland (Jeff Samardzija, 3.34) at Houston (Scott Feldman, 4.60).
Oakland (1) has a 76.2 chance to beat Houston (26).

Milwaukee (Matt Garza, 4.03) at Tampa Bay (Alex Cobb, 3.44).
Tampa Bay (11) has a 58.2 chance to beat Milwaukee (14).

Brief Summary

These predictions are based on the team rankings, which take the margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule. The number in parenthesis next to each team gives its rank.

The predictions include a uniform constant for home field advantage. For more details, click here.

In addition, games are ranked by the quality of the teams and closeness the expected outcome. Think of this as a viewer’s guide. The larger the number in parenthesis next to the game, the more likely you’ll want to watch.

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