Predictions

The Power Rank uses analytics for better sports predictions. College football and MLB predictions are below.

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  • A sample of my football predictions each week of the season. During the 2015 season, these college football predictions predicted the winner in 76.2% of games (583-182, doesn’t include cupcakte FBS vs FCS games).

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College Football

During the 2015 season, the college football predictions posted here predicted the winner in 76.1% of games (570-179, doesn’t include any FBS vs FCS games).

For the first four weeks, the college football predictions are based on my preseason rankings.

Random game in Sydney, Australia on Friday, August 25th

1. California versus Hawaii at a neutral site.
California (56) will beat Hawaii (107) by 11.5 at a neutral site. Hawaii has a 20% chance of beating California.

Predictions for week 1 of college football

1. North Carolina at Georgia.
Georgia (16) will beat North Carolina (20) by 3.9 at home. North Carolina has a 39% chance of beating Georgia.

2. Mississippi at Florida State.
Florida State (2) will beat Mississippi (8) by 9.1 at home. Mississippi has a 25% chance of beating Florida State.

3. LSU at Wisconsin.
LSU (3) will beat Wisconsin (22) by 4.6 on the road. Wisconsin has a 37% chance of beating LSU.

4. Brigham Young at Arizona.
Brigham Young (27) will beat Arizona (38) by 0.0 on the road. Arizona has a 50% chance of beating Brigham Young.

5. USC versus Alabama at a neutral site.
Alabama (1) will beat USC (19) by 10.8 at a neutral site. USC has a 21% chance of beating Alabama.

6. South Carolina at Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt (44) will beat South Carolina (34) by 0.8 at home. South Carolina has a 48% chance of beating Vanderbilt.

7. Georgia Tech versus Boston College at a neutral site.
Georgia Tech (47) will beat Boston College (55) by 0.9 at a neutral site. Boston College has a 47% chance of beating Georgia Tech.

8. UCLA at Texas A&M.
Texas A&M (10) will beat UCLA (37) by 9.6 at home. UCLA has a 24% chance of beating Texas A&M.

9. Notre Dame at Texas.
Notre Dame (13) will beat Texas (39) by 3.4 on the road. Texas has a 40% chance of beating Notre Dame.

10. Clemson at Auburn.
Clemson (4) will beat Auburn (32) by 6.2 on the road. Auburn has a 32% chance of beating Clemson.

11. Missouri at West Virginia.
West Virginia (35) will beat Missouri (52) by 5.9 at home. Missouri has a 33% chance of beating West Virginia.

12. Oklahoma at Houston.
Oklahoma (5) will beat Houston (41) by 8.0 on the road. Houston has a 28% chance of beating Oklahoma.

13. Western Michigan at Northwestern.
Northwestern (58) will beat Western Michigan (68) by 4.6 at home. Western Michigan has a 36% chance of beating Northwestern.

14. Kansas State at Stanford.
Stanford (6) will beat Kansas State (50) by 15.5 at home. Kansas State has a 13% chance of beating Stanford.

15. San Jose State at Tulsa.
Tulsa (82) will beat San Jose State (81) by 2.7 at home. San Jose State has a 42% chance of beating Tulsa.

16. Bowling Green at Ohio State.
Ohio State (11) will beat Bowling Green (69) by 15.1 at home. Bowling Green has a 14% chance of beating Ohio State.

17. Oregon State at Minnesota.
Minnesota (60) will beat Oregon State (87) by 7.5 at home. Oregon State has a 29% chance of beating Minnesota.

18. Rutgers at Washington.
Washington (26) will beat Rutgers (84) by 14.0 at home. Rutgers has a 16% chance of beating Washington.

19. Appalachian State at Tennessee.
Tennessee (7) will beat Appalachian State (85) by 20.3 at home. Appalachian State has a 8% chance of beating Tennessee.

20. Ball State at Georgia State.
Georgia State (103) will beat Ball State (102) by 2.8 at home. Ball State has a 42% chance of beating Georgia State.

21. Toledo at Arkansas State.
Toledo (46) will beat Arkansas State (90) by 6.2 on the road. Arkansas State has a 32% chance of beating Toledo.

22. Army at Temple.
Temple (54) will beat Army (91) by 11.5 at home. Army has a 20% chance of beating Temple.

23. Southern Miss at Kentucky.
Kentucky (83) will beat Southern Miss (100) by 8.7 at home. Southern Miss has a 26% chance of beating Kentucky.

24. Colorado State versus Colorado at a neutral site.
Colorado (77) will beat Colorado State (97) by 6.6 at a neutral site. Colorado State has a 31% chance of beating Colorado.

25. Louisiana Tech at Arkansas.
Arkansas (12) will beat Louisiana Tech (93) by 21.5 at home. Louisiana Tech has a 7% chance of beating Arkansas.

26. Kent State at Penn State.
Penn State (43) will beat Kent State (101) by 14.9 at home. Kent State has a 14% chance of beating Penn State.

27. Hawaii at Michigan.
Michigan (9) will beat Hawaii (107) by 25.0 at home. Hawaii has a 5% chance of beating Michigan.

28. Northern Illinois at Wyoming.
Northern Illinois (65) will beat Wyoming (105) by 6.9 on the road. Wyoming has a 31% chance of beating Northern Illinois.

29. Boise State at Louisiana Lafayette.
Boise State (49) will beat Louisiana Lafayette (106) by 9.6 on the road. Louisiana Lafayette has a 24% chance of beating Boise State.

30. Rice at Western Kentucky.
Western Kentucky (62) will beat Rice (108) by 14.4 at home. Rice has a 15% chance of beating Western Kentucky.

31. Tulane at Wake Forest.
Wake Forest (73) will beat Tulane (110) by 13.4 at home. Tulane has a 17% chance of beating Wake Forest.

32. New Mexico State at UTEP.
UTEP (122) will beat New Mexico State (126) by 5.9 at home. New Mexico State has a 33% chance of beating UTEP.

33. South Alabama at Mississippi State.
Mississippi State (23) will beat South Alabama (115) by 25.3 at home. South Alabama has a 5% chance of beating Mississippi State.

34. Fresno State at Nebraska.
Nebraska (25) will beat Fresno State (114) by 24.2 at home. Fresno State has a 5% chance of beating Nebraska.

35. SMU at North Texas.
SMU (94) will beat North Texas (120) by 5.2 on the road. North Texas has a 35% chance of beating SMU.

36. Miami (OH) at Iowa.
Iowa (36) will beat Miami (OH) (117) by 23.1 at home. Miami (OH) has a 6% chance of beating Iowa.

37. Indiana at Florida International.
Indiana (67) will beat Florida International (118) by 11.9 on the road. Florida International has a 19% chance of beating Indiana.

38. Massachusetts at Florida.
Florida (28) will beat Massachusetts (124) by 27.9 at home. Massachusetts has a 3% chance of beating Florida.

39. Charlotte at Louisville.
Louisville (14) will beat Charlotte (128) by 38.3 at home. Charlotte has a 1% chance of beating Louisville.

40. Texas State at Ohio.
Ohio (96) will beat Texas State (127) by 16.4 at home. Texas State has a 12% chance of beating Ohio.

Major League Baseball

These predictions use team rankings that adjust for a team’s cluster luck. They consider starting pitching through a projected FIP but no injuries or other situations.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.

Games on Saturday, August 27, 2016.

Colorado (Jorge de la Rosa, 4.65) at Washington (A.J. Cole, 4.45).
Washington (3) has a 61.2 chance to beat Colorado (16).

Chicago Cubs (Jason Hammel, 4.18) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Julio Urias, 3.49).
Chicago Cubs (1) has a 51.3 chance to beat Los Angeles Dodgers (5).

Pittsburgh (Jameson Taillon, 3.97) at Milwaukee (Jimmy Nelson, 4.35).
Pittsburgh (21) has a 55.0 chance to beat Milwaukee (26).

Philadelphia (Jeremy Hellickson, 4.10) at New York Mets (Noah Syndergaard, 2.72).
New York Mets (13) has a 70.5 chance to beat Philadelphia (29).

San Diego (Clayton Richard, 4.38) at Miami (Jose Urena, 4.34).
Miami (10) has a 60.2 chance to beat San Diego (27).

Cincinnati (Anthony DeSclafani, 3.65) at Arizona (Zack Godley, 4.35).
Cincinnati (30) has a 50.2 chance to beat Arizona (25).

Atlanta (Mike Foltynewicz, 4.52) at San Francisco (Jake Peavy, 3.98).
San Francisco (8) has a 66.8 chance to beat Atlanta (28).

Using replacement level fip for Dylan Buddy
Using replacement level fip for Chad Green
Baltimore (Dylan Buddy, 5.00) at New York Yankees (Chad Green, 5.00).
New York Yankees (15) has a 51.1 chance to beat Baltimore (14).

Minnesota (Ervin Santana, 4.00) at Toronto (Marcus Stroman, 3.66).
Toronto (4) has a 66.1 chance to beat Minnesota (24).

Kansas City (Danny Duffy, 3.75) at Boston (David Price, 3.17).
Boston (2) has a 66.9 chance to beat Kansas City (18).

Los Angeles Angels (Brett Oberholtzer, 4.25) at Detroit (Michael Fulmer, 4.20).
Detroit (9) has a 58.7 chance to beat Los Angeles Angels (22).

Tampa Bay (Blake Snell, 4.06) at Houston (Dallas Keuchel, 3.54).
Houston (17) has a 53.4 chance to beat Tampa Bay (11).

Using replacement level fip for Ariel Miranda
Seattle (Ariel Miranda, 5.00) at Chicago White Sox (Jose Quintana, 3.40).
Chicago White Sox (20) has a 58.6 chance to beat Seattle (12).

Cleveland (Carlos Carrasco, 3.16) at Texas (A.J. Griffin, 5.12).
Cleveland (7) has a 68.2 chance to beat Texas (19).

Oakland (Zachary Neal, 5.33) at St. Louis (Alex Reyes, 4.29).
St. Louis (6) has a 69.8 chance to beat Oakland (23).

National Football League

Check out how predicting Super Bowl 50 was the ultimate test between eyes and numbers.

National Basketball Association

To see my numbers prior to the start of the playoffs, check out the interactive visual for NBA win probabilities.

International Soccer

My rankings were a part of an academic study on making football predictions.

To check out my Euro 2016 win probabilities before the knock out stage started, click here.

College Basketball