Predictions

The top 5 killer articles in football analytics

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Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the xFIP for each starting pitcher, with innings pitched if you should worry about small sample size.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.

Games on Wednesday, October 01, 2014.

San Francisco (Madison Bumgarner, 2.99) at Pittsburgh (Edinson Volquez, 4.20).
San Francisco (12) has a 51.9 chance to beat Pittsburgh (10).

National Football League, Week 5

1. Arizona at Denver. (0.61)
Denver (3) will beat Arizona (5) by 3.9 at home. Arizona has a 39% chance of beating Denver.

2. Baltimore at Indianapolis. (0.57)
Indianapolis (11) will beat Baltimore (7) by 1.8 at home. Baltimore has a 45% chance of beating Indianapolis.

3. Atlanta at New York Giants. (0.46)
New York Giants (19) will beat Atlanta (16) by 1.6 at home. Atlanta has a 46% chance of beating New York Giants.

4. Chicago at Carolina. (0.46)
Carolina (18) will beat Chicago (14) by 0.8 at home. Chicago has a 48% chance of beating Carolina.

5. Cincinnati at New England. (0.45)
Cincinnati (2) will beat New England (12) by 3.4 on the road. New England has a 41% chance of beating Cincinnati.

6. Kansas City at San Francisco. (0.45)
San Francisco (6) will beat Kansas City (15) by 7.0 at home. Kansas City has a 31% chance of beating San Francisco.

7. Houston at Dallas. (0.39)
Dallas (20) will beat Houston (23) by 4.5 at home. Houston has a 38% chance of beating Dallas.

8. Cleveland at Tennessee. (0.38)
Tennessee (27) will beat Cleveland (22) by 1.3 at home. Cleveland has a 46% chance of beating Tennessee.

9. Minnesota at Green Bay. (0.36)
Green Bay (10) will beat Minnesota (21) by 7.9 at home. Minnesota has a 29% chance of beating Green Bay.

10. Buffalo at Detroit. (0.36)
Detroit (13) will beat Buffalo (24) by 6.7 at home. Buffalo has a 32% chance of beating Detroit.

11. St. Louis at Philadelphia. (0.30)
Philadelphia (9) will beat St. Louis (29) by 9.5 at home. St. Louis has a 26% chance of beating Philadelphia.

12. Tampa Bay at New Orleans. (0.30)
New Orleans (8) will beat Tampa Bay (30) by 9.7 at home. Tampa Bay has a 25% chance of beating New Orleans.

13. New York Jets at San Diego. (0.29)
San Diego (4) will beat New York Jets (26) by 12.1 at home. New York Jets has a 21% chance of beating San Diego.

14. Seattle at Washington. (0.28)
Seattle (1) will beat Washington (25) by 9.1 on the road. Washington has a 27% chance of beating Seattle.

15. Pittsburgh at Jacksonville. (0.23)
Pittsburgh (17) will beat Jacksonville (31) by 4.0 on the road. Jacksonville has a 39% chance of beating Pittsburgh.

Introducing a new prediction service for college football

This new prediction service for college football goes beyond these predictions based on team rankings. We are 17-10-1 this season.

To learn more, click here.

College Football, Week 6

1. Stanford at Notre Dame. (0.80)
Notre Dame (19) will beat Stanford (16) by 2.7 at home. Stanford has a 42% chance of beating Notre Dame.

2. Nebraska at Michigan State. (0.78)
Michigan State (17) will beat Nebraska (21) by 3.8 at home. Nebraska has a 39% chance of beating Michigan State.

3. Alabama at Mississippi. (0.73)
Alabama (2) will beat Mississippi (9) by 4.1 on the road. Mississippi has a 38% chance of beating Alabama.

4. Oklahoma at TCU. (0.72)
Oklahoma (1) will beat TCU (8) by 4.7 on the road. TCU has a 36% chance of beating Oklahoma.

5. Florida at Tennessee. (0.65)
Tennessee (35) will beat Florida (32) by 1.4 at home. Florida has a 46% chance of beating Tennessee.

6. Texas A&M at Mississippi State. (0.64)
Texas A&M (6) will beat Mississippi State (15) by 6.0 on the road. Mississippi State has a 33% chance of beating Texas A&M.

7. Ohio State at Maryland. (0.63)
Maryland (26) will beat Ohio State (34) by 6.1 at home. Ohio State has a 33% chance of beating Maryland.

8. LSU at Auburn. (0.62)
Auburn (3) will beat LSU (12) by 14.1 at home. LSU has a 15% chance of beating Auburn.

9. Boise State at Nevada. (0.57)
Nevada (49) will beat Boise State (40) by 1.0 at home. Boise State has a 47% chance of beating Nevada.

10. Utah at UCLA. (0.55)
UCLA (10) will beat Utah (36) by 11.2 at home. Utah has a 21% chance of beating UCLA.

11. Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech. (0.54)
Miami (FL) (31) will beat Georgia Tech (47) by 1.3 on the road. Georgia Tech has a 46% chance of beating Miami (FL).

12. Iowa State at Oklahoma State. (0.52)
Oklahoma State (25) will beat Iowa State (43) by 9.9 at home. Iowa State has a 23% chance of beating Oklahoma State.

13. Michigan at Rutgers. (0.52)
Rutgers (55) will beat Michigan (60) by 3.6 at home. Michigan has a 39% chance of beating Rutgers.

14. Arizona at Oregon. (0.51)
Oregon (4) will beat Arizona (29) by 17.8 at home. Arizona has a 11% chance of beating Oregon.

15. Pittsburgh at Virginia. (0.51)
Virginia (45) will beat Pittsburgh (54) by 5.4 at home. Pittsburgh has a 34% chance of beating Virginia.

16. Baylor at Texas. (0.46)
Baylor (5) will beat Texas (39) by 14.4 on the road. Texas has a 15% chance of beating Baylor.

17. California at Washington State. (0.45)
Washington State (33) will beat California (56) by 8.8 at home. California has a 26% chance of beating Washington State.

18. North Carolina State at Clemson. (0.45)
Clemson (37) will beat North Carolina State (61) by 8.2 at home. North Carolina State has a 27% chance of beating Clemson.

19. Navy at Air Force. (0.43)
Air Force (68) will beat Navy (69) by 3.1 at home. Navy has a 41% chance of beating Air Force.

20. Arizona State at USC. (0.43)
USC (22) will beat Arizona State (53) by 12.5 at home. Arizona State has a 18% chance of beating USC.

21. UCF at Houston. (0.43)
Houston (46) will beat UCF (67) by 7.2 at home. UCF has a 30% chance of beating Houston.

22. Louisville at Syracuse. (0.41)
Louisville (27) will beat Syracuse (62) by 5.0 on the road. Syracuse has a 35% chance of beating Louisville.

23. South Carolina at Kentucky. (0.41)
South Carolina (24) will beat Kentucky (58) by 7.0 on the road. Kentucky has a 30% chance of beating South Carolina.

24. Wisconsin at Northwestern. (0.40)
Wisconsin (23) will beat Northwestern (59) by 7.1 on the road. Northwestern has a 30% chance of beating Wisconsin.

25. Texas Tech at Kansas State. (0.36)
Kansas State (11) will beat Texas Tech (64) by 16.9 at home. Texas Tech has a 12% chance of beating Kansas State.

26. Purdue at Illinois. (0.33)
Illinois (80) will beat Purdue (82) by 3.6 at home. Purdue has a 39% chance of beating Illinois.

27. Memphis at Cincinnati. (0.32)
Memphis (50) will beat Cincinnati (72) by 2.9 on the road. Cincinnati has a 41% chance of beating Memphis.

28. Virginia Tech at North Carolina. (0.28)
Virginia Tech (38) will beat North Carolina (73) by 6.1 on the road. North Carolina has a 33% chance of beating Virginia Tech.

29. Utah State at Brigham Young. (0.25)
Brigham Young (18) will beat Utah State (78) by 19.0 at home. Utah State has a 9% chance of beating Brigham Young.

30. Oregon State at Colorado. (0.24)
Oregon State (63) will beat Colorado (84) by 3.3 on the road. Colorado has a 40% chance of beating Oregon State.

31. UAB at Western Kentucky. (0.24)
Western Kentucky (74) will beat UAB (91) by 6.6 at home. UAB has a 31% chance of beating Western Kentucky.

32. Wake Forest at Florida State. (0.24)
Florida State (7) will beat Wake Forest (87) by 29.7 at home. Wake Forest has a 3% chance of beating Florida State.

33. Hawaii at Rice. (0.20)
Rice (81) will beat Hawaii (95) by 6.3 at home. Hawaii has a 32% chance of beating Rice.

34. Ohio at Central Michigan. (0.20)
Central Michigan (98) will beat Ohio (102) by 3.7 at home. Ohio has a 39% chance of beating Central Michigan.

35. San Diego State at Fresno State. (0.19)
Fresno State (94) will beat San Diego State (100) by 4.8 at home. San Diego State has a 36% chance of beating Fresno State.

36. Vanderbilt at Georgia. (0.18)
Georgia (13) will beat Vanderbilt (90) by 23.9 at home. Vanderbilt has a 5% chance of beating Georgia.

37. Buffalo at Bowling Green. (0.18)
Bowling Green (85) will beat Buffalo (96) by 6.3 at home. Buffalo has a 32% chance of beating Bowling Green.

38. Ball State at Army. (0.15)
Ball State (89) will beat Army (101) by 0.8 on the road. Army has a 48% chance of beating Ball State.

39. Toledo at Western Michigan. (0.12)
Toledo (79) will beat Western Michigan (99) by 2.8 on the road. Western Michigan has a 42% chance of beating Toledo.

40. Florida Atlantic at Florida International. (0.08)
Florida Atlantic (93) will beat Florida International (107) by 1.6 on the road. Florida International has a 45% chance of beating Florida Atlantic.

41. Louisiana Monroe at Arkansas State. (0.06)
Arkansas State (77) will beat Louisiana Monroe (103) by 10.8 at home. Louisiana Monroe has a 22% chance of beating Arkansas State.

42. Kansas at West Virginia. (0.04)
West Virginia (14) will beat Kansas (106) by 28.1 at home. Kansas has a 3% chance of beating West Virginia.

43. UTEP at Louisiana Tech. (0.03)
Louisiana Tech (76) will beat UTEP (105) by 11.8 at home. UTEP has a 20% chance of beating Louisiana Tech.

44. Tulsa at Colorado State. (0.00)
Colorado State (70) will beat Tulsa (108) by 13.0 at home. Tulsa has a 17% chance of beating Colorado State.

45. North Texas at Indiana. (-0.03)
Indiana (51) will beat North Texas (109) by 19.1 at home. North Texas has a 9% chance of beating Indiana.

46. SMU at East Carolina. (-0.04)
East Carolina (52) will beat SMU (110) by 19.3 at home. SMU has a 9% chance of beating East Carolina.

47. Southern Miss at Middle Tennessee State. (-0.08)
Middle Tennessee State (83) will beat Southern Miss (113) by 13.7 at home. Southern Miss has a 16% chance of beating Middle Tennessee State.

48. UNLV at San Jose State. (-0.17)
San Jose State (88) will beat UNLV (116) by 16.6 at home. UNLV has a 12% chance of beating San Jose State.

49. Kent State at Northern Illinois. (-0.17)
Northern Illinois (65) will beat Kent State (115) by 22.3 at home. Kent State has a 6% chance of beating Northern Illinois.

50. Eastern Michigan at Akron. (-0.31)
Akron (92) will beat Eastern Michigan (120) by 22.9 at home. Eastern Michigan has a 6% chance of beating Akron.

Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the xFIP for each starting pitcher, with innings pitched if you should worry about small sample size.

Brief Summary

These predictions are based on the team rankings, which take the margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule. The number in parenthesis next to each team gives its rank.

The predictions include a uniform constant for home field advantage. For more details, click here.

In addition, games are ranked by the quality of the teams and closeness the expected outcome. Think of this as a viewer’s guide. The larger the number in parenthesis next to the game, the more likely you’ll want to watch.

National Basketball Association

College Basketball

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