National Football League, Super Bowl
These predictions use calculations based on both margin of victory and yards per play.
1. New England versus Seattle at a neutral site.
Seattle (2) will beat New England (3) by 1.3 at a neutral site. New England has a 46% chance of beating Seattle.
About The Power Rank
You’re way smarter than the average sports fan.
It’s 2015, and you know analytics is a necessary tool in predicting the outcomes of games and events such as the NCAA tournament.
My name is Ed Feng, and I developed a ranking algorithm for teams based on my Ph.D. research at Stanford. Since 2005, the higher ranked team has won 62.3% of college football bowl games (187-113).
— Dan St.Pierre (@DanStPierre9) December 31, 2014
I contribute college football content to Grantland, Deadspin and Bleacher Report, and my numbers have appeared in Sports Illustrated, Five Thirty Eight and Business Week.
Here, you’ll find predictions based on my team rankings that use margin of victory in games. To learn more about my ranking algorithm, click here.
The top 5 killer articles in football analytics
Games on Saturday, January 24, 2015.
1. Kansas at Texas.
Texas (15) will beat Kansas (16) by 3.2 at home. Kansas has a 34% chance of beating Texas.
2. Oklahoma at Baylor.
Baylor (19) will beat Oklahoma (11) by 1.3 at home. Oklahoma has a 43% chance of beating Baylor.
3. LSU at Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt (50) will beat LSU (41) by 2.5 at home. LSU has a 38% chance of beating Vanderbilt.
4. Florida at Mississippi.
Mississippi (30) will beat Florida (46) by 5.1 at home. Florida has a 26% chance of beating Mississippi.
5. Illinois at Minnesota.
Minnesota (47) will beat Illinois (56) by 4.5 at home. Illinois has a 29% chance of beating Minnesota.
6. Richmond at Dayton.
Dayton (52) will beat Richmond (66) by 4.7 at home. Richmond has a 28% chance of beating Dayton.
7. UCLA at Oregon.
Oregon (81) will beat UCLA (86) by 3.5 at home. UCLA has a 33% chance of beating Oregon.
8. Texas A&M at Tennessee.
Tennessee (78) will beat Texas A&M (61) by 1.6 at home. Texas A&M has a 42% chance of beating Tennessee.
9. Iowa at Purdue.
Purdue (64) will beat Iowa (43) by 0.6 at home. Iowa has a 47% chance of beating Purdue.
10. Oklahoma State at Kansas State.
Oklahoma State (26) will beat Kansas State (57) by 0.9 on the road. Kansas State has a 46% chance of beating Oklahoma State.
11. Stephen F. Austin at Sam Houston State.
Sam Houston State (93) will beat Stephen F. Austin (71) by 1.7 at home. Stephen F. Austin has a 42% chance of beating Sam Houston State.
12. Miami (FL) at Syracuse.
Miami (FL) (25) will beat Syracuse (59) by 1.0 on the road. Syracuse has a 45% chance of beating Miami (FL).
13. Bowling Green at Toledo.
Toledo (98) will beat Bowling Green (84) by 2.2 at home. Bowling Green has a 39% chance of beating Toledo.
14. Arizona State at Stanford.
Stanford (36) will beat Arizona State (68) by 6.8 at home. Arizona State has a 21% chance of beating Stanford.
15. New Mexico at Wyoming.
Wyoming (69) will beat New Mexico (94) by 5.0 at home. New Mexico has a 27% chance of beating Wyoming.
16. San Diego State at Colorado State.
San Diego State (29) will beat Colorado State (67) by 1.2 on the road. Colorado State has a 44% chance of beating San Diego State.
17. Georgetown at Marquette.
Georgetown (24) will beat Marquette (63) by 1.9 on the road. Marquette has a 40% chance of beating Georgetown.
18. TCU at West Virginia.
West Virginia (12) will beat TCU (53) by 9.4 at home. TCU has a 13% chance of beating West Virginia.
19. Rutgers at Penn State.
Penn State (109) will beat Rutgers (121) by 4.0 at home. Rutgers has a 31% chance of beating Penn State.
20. Wake Forest at Clemson.
Clemson (108) will beat Wake Forest (122) by 4.2 at home. Wake Forest has a 30% chance of beating Clemson.
21. Northeastern at William & Mary.
William & Mary (134) will beat Northeastern (123) by 2.1 at home. Northeastern has a 40% chance of beating William & Mary.
22. Michigan State at Nebraska.
Michigan State (22) will beat Nebraska (87) by 4.0 on the road. Nebraska has a 31% chance of beating Michigan State.
23. Akron at Western Michigan.
Western Michigan (136) will beat Akron (112) by 1.1 at home. Akron has a 45% chance of beating Western Michigan.
24. Kentucky at South Carolina.
Kentucky (1) will beat South Carolina (44) by 11.3 on the road. South Carolina has a 10% chance of beating Kentucky.
25. UC Irvine at Hawaii.
Hawaii (145) will beat UC Irvine (116) by 0.9 at home. UC Irvine has a 45% chance of beating Hawaii.
26. DePaul at Xavier.
Xavier (21) will beat DePaul (104) by 12.0 at home. DePaul has a 8% chance of beating Xavier.
27. Wisconsin at Michigan.
Wisconsin (4) will beat Michigan (96) by 10.7 on the road. Michigan has a 11% chance of beating Wisconsin.
28. Utah State at UNLV.
UNLV (107) will beat Utah State (149) by 6.2 at home. Utah State has a 22% chance of beating UNLV.
29. Brigham Young at San Diego.
Brigham Young (42) will beat San Diego (127) by 3.8 on the road. San Diego has a 32% chance of beating Brigham Young.
30. St. Mary’s at Portland.
St. Mary’s (60) will beat Portland (132) by 2.4 on the road. Portland has a 38% chance of beating St. Mary’s.
31. Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan.
Central Michigan (90) will beat Eastern Michigan (147) by 7.0 at home. Eastern Michigan has a 20% chance of beating Central Michigan.
32. Kent State at Ball State.
Ball State (159) will beat Kent State (128) by 0.8 at home. Kent State has a 46% chance of beating Ball State.
33. Arizona at California.
Arizona (5) will beat California (124) by 12.3 on the road. California has a 8% chance of beating Arizona.
34. Auburn at Alabama.
Alabama (51) will beat Auburn (137) by 10.4 at home. Auburn has a 11% chance of beating Alabama.
35. Charlotte at Middle Tennessee State.
Charlotte (105) will beat Middle Tennessee State (152) by 0.7 on the road. Middle Tennessee State has a 47% chance of beating Charlotte.
36. Louisiana Lafayette at Georgia State.
Georgia State (110) will beat Louisiana Lafayette (158) by 6.9 at home. Louisiana Lafayette has a 20% chance of beating Georgia State.
37. Washington State at Colorado.
Colorado (75) will beat Washington State (151) by 8.6 at home. Washington State has a 15% chance of beating Colorado.
38. Florida State at North Carolina.
North Carolina (9) will beat Florida State (139) by 17.9 at home. Florida State has a 3% chance of beating North Carolina.
39. Memphis at Tulane.
Memphis (103) will beat Tulane (161) by 1.1 on the road. Tulane has a 44% chance of beating Memphis.
40. Bucknell at Boston University.
Boston University (202) will beat Bucknell (200) by 3.0 at home. Bucknell has a 36% chance of beating Boston University.
41. Lehigh at Lafayette.
Lafayette (196) will beat Lehigh (178) by 2.2 at home. Lehigh has a 39% chance of beating Lafayette.
42. Loyola Chicago at Indiana State.
Indiana State (182) will beat Loyola Chicago (138) by 0.3 at home. Loyola Chicago has a 49% chance of beating Indiana State.
43. USC at Oregon State.
Oregon State (55) will beat USC (156) by 10.9 at home. USC has a 10% chance of beating Oregon State.
44. Canisius at Rider.
Rider (184) will beat Canisius (140) by 0.3 at home. Canisius has a 48% chance of beating Rider.
45. Iowa State at Texas Tech.
Iowa State (14) will beat Texas Tech (160) by 11.4 on the road. Texas Tech has a 9% chance of beating Iowa State.
46. Georgia Southern at Louisiana Monroe.
Louisiana Monroe (185) will beat Georgia Southern (143) by 0.3 at home. Georgia Southern has a 48% chance of beating Louisiana Monroe.
47. Arkansas at Missouri.
Arkansas (33) will beat Missouri (157) by 7.5 on the road. Missouri has a 18% chance of beating Arkansas.
48. Pacific at Gonzaga.
Gonzaga (3) will beat Pacific (215) by 25.4 at home. Pacific has a 1% chance of beating Gonzaga.
49. Georgia at Mississippi State.
Georgia (31) will beat Mississippi State (162) by 8.0 on the road. Mississippi State has a 17% chance of beating Georgia.
50. East Tennessee State at Wofford.
Wofford (118) will beat East Tennessee State (179) by 7.7 at home. East Tennessee State has a 18% chance of beating Wofford.
51. Missouri State at Bradley.
Bradley (218) will beat Missouri State (225) by 3.4 at home. Missouri State has a 34% chance of beating Bradley.
52. North Carolina Asheville at High Point.
High Point (186) will beat North Carolina Asheville (209) by 4.4 at home. North Carolina Asheville has a 29% chance of beating High Point.
53. South Dakota State at Oral Roberts.
South Dakota State (130) will beat Oral Roberts (192) by 0.8 on the road. Oral Roberts has a 46% chance of beating South Dakota State.
54. Davidson at George Mason.
Davidson (32) will beat George Mason (176) by 8.8 on the road. George Mason has a 15% chance of beating Davidson.
55. Gardner-Webb at Charleston Southern.
Charleston Southern (222) will beat Gardner-Webb (173) by 1.0 at home. Gardner-Webb has a 45% chance of beating Charleston Southern.
56. Northern Colorado at Idaho.
Idaho (235) will beat Northern Colorado (244) by 3.6 at home. Northern Colorado has a 33% chance of beating Idaho.
57. Old Dominion at UAB.
Old Dominion (54) will beat UAB (191) by 6.6 on the road. UAB has a 21% chance of beating Old Dominion.
58. Louisiana Tech at Rice.
Louisiana Tech (80) will beat Rice (198) by 4.6 on the road. Rice has a 28% chance of beating Louisiana Tech.
59. James Madison at Hofstra.
Hofstra (89) will beat James Madison (201) by 10.4 at home. James Madison has a 11% chance of beating Hofstra.
60. Sacramento State at Weber State.
Weber State (249) will beat Sacramento State (234) by 2.3 at home. Sacramento State has a 39% chance of beating Weber State.
61. Nevada at Fresno State.
Fresno State (189) will beat Nevada (237) by 5.4 at home. Nevada has a 25% chance of beating Fresno State.
62. Robert Morris at St. Francis (NY).
St. Francis (NY) (165) will beat Robert Morris (228) by 6.4 at home. Robert Morris has a 22% chance of beating St. Francis (NY).
63. Eastern Kentucky at Tennessee Tech.
Eastern Kentucky (129) will beat Tennessee Tech (213) by 2.1 on the road. Tennessee Tech has a 40% chance of beating Eastern Kentucky.
64. Loyola Marymount at San Francisco.
San Francisco (144) will beat Loyola Marymount (224) by 7.7 at home. Loyola Marymount has a 18% chance of beating San Francisco.
65. Cornell at Columbia.
Columbia (99) will beat Cornell (207) by 10.3 at home. Cornell has a 11% chance of beating Columbia.
66. Pepperdine at Santa Clara.
Pepperdine (83) will beat Santa Clara (206) by 5.0 on the road. Santa Clara has a 27% chance of beating Pepperdine.
67. Buffalo at Ohio.
Buffalo (76) will beat Ohio (214) by 5.8 on the road. Ohio has a 24% chance of beating Buffalo.
68. Southern Illinois at Evansville.
Evansville (106) will beat Southern Illinois (221) by 10.3 at home. Southern Illinois has a 11% chance of beating Evansville.
69. Southeast Missouri State at Tennessee-Martin.
Tennessee-Martin (210) will beat Southeast Missouri State (254) by 5.3 at home. Southeast Missouri State has a 26% chance of beating Tennessee-Martin.
70. Houston at SMU.
SMU (35) will beat Houston (242) by 17.9 at home. Houston has a 3% chance of beating SMU.
71. McNeese State at Northwestern State.
Northwestern State (258) will beat McNeese State (270) by 4.1 at home. McNeese State has a 31% chance of beating Northwestern State.
72. Dartmouth at Harvard.
Harvard (111) will beat Dartmouth (226) by 10.3 at home. Dartmouth has a 11% chance of beating Harvard.
73. Sacred Heart at Bryant.
Bryant (223) will beat Sacred Heart (261) by 5.2 at home. Sacred Heart has a 26% chance of beating Bryant.
74. Arkansas State at Troy.
Troy (280) will beat Arkansas State (268) by 2.6 at home. Arkansas State has a 37% chance of beating Troy.
75. Denver at Nebraska Omaha.
Nebraska Omaha (251) will beat Denver (190) by 0.1 at home. Denver has a 50% chance of beating Nebraska Omaha.
76. South Dakota at IUPUI.
IUPUI (259) will beat South Dakota (204) by 0.6 at home. South Dakota has a 47% chance of beating IUPUI.
77. Duquesne at George Washington.
George Washington (49) will beat Duquesne (240) by 16.3 at home. Duquesne has a 4% chance of beating George Washington.
78. Seattle at Missouri Kansas City.
Missouri Kansas City (275) will beat Seattle (255) by 1.9 at home. Seattle has a 41% chance of beating Missouri Kansas City.
79. LIU Brooklyn at Farleigh Dickinson.
Farleigh Dickinson (294) will beat LIU Brooklyn (287) by 2.8 at home. LIU Brooklyn has a 36% chance of beating Farleigh Dickinson.
80. Appalachian State at Texas State.
Texas State (193) will beat Appalachian State (260) by 6.4 at home. Appalachian State has a 22% chance of beating Texas State.
81. Boise State at Air Force.
Boise State (79) will beat Air Force (236) by 6.7 on the road. Air Force has a 21% chance of beating Boise State.
82. Texas Arlington at Arkansas Little Rock.
Texas Arlington (163) will beat Arkansas Little Rock (253) by 1.6 on the road. Arkansas Little Rock has a 42% chance of beating Texas Arlington.
83. UC Riverside at Cal Poly.
Cal Poly (150) will beat UC Riverside (252) by 8.8 at home. UC Riverside has a 15% chance of beating Cal Poly.
84. Long Beach State at Cal State Northridge.
Long Beach State (101) will beat Cal State Northridge (247) by 5.7 on the road. Cal State Northridge has a 24% chance of beating Long Beach State.
85. UTSA at Western Kentucky.
Western Kentucky (97) will beat UTSA (250) by 12.6 at home. UTSA has a 7% chance of beating Western Kentucky.
86. St. Francis (PA) at Mount St. Mary’s.
St. Francis (PA) (181) will beat Mount St. Mary’s (267) by 1.2 on the road. Mount St. Mary’s has a 44% chance of beating St. Francis (PA).
87. North Dakota State at IPFW.
North Dakota State (197) will beat IPFW (269) by 0.7 on the road. IPFW has a 46% chance of beating North Dakota State.
88. Brown at Yale.
Yale (102) will beat Brown (256) by 12.5 at home. Brown has a 8% chance of beating Yale.
89. UTEP at Marshall.
UTEP (62) will beat Marshall (266) by 9.7 on the road. Marshall has a 13% chance of beating UTEP.
90. Charleston at Drexel.
Drexel (290) will beat Charleston (248) by 0.6 at home. Charleston has a 47% chance of beating Drexel.
91. Navy at Holy Cross.
Holy Cross (246) will beat Navy (292) by 5.9 at home. Navy has a 23% chance of beating Holy Cross.
92. Illinois Chicago at Youngstown State.
Youngstown State (276) will beat Illinois Chicago (304) by 5.1 at home. Illinois Chicago has a 27% chance of beating Youngstown State.
93. Citadel at Virginia Military.
Virginia Military (291) will beat Citadel (308) by 4.7 at home. Citadel has a 28% chance of beating Virginia Military.
94. Towson at North Carolina Wilmington.
North Carolina Wilmington (195) will beat Towson (281) by 7.7 at home. Towson has a 18% chance of beating North Carolina Wilmington.
95. Tulsa at East Carolina.
Tulsa (70) will beat East Carolina (279) by 9.9 on the road. East Carolina has a 12% chance of beating Tulsa.
96. St. Joseph’s at Pennsylvania.
St. Joseph’s (180) will beat Pennsylvania (283) by 2.2 on the road. Pennsylvania has a 39% chance of beating St. Joseph’s.
97. Cal State Fullerton at UCSB.
UCSB (120) will beat Cal State Fullerton (273) by 12.4 at home. Cal State Fullerton has a 8% chance of beating UCSB.
98. Western Carolina at Samford.
Western Carolina (231) will beat Samford (298) by 0.8 on the road. Samford has a 46% chance of beating Western Carolina.
99. North Florida at Lipscomb.
North Florida (155) will beat Lipscomb (284) by 3.7 on the road. Lipscomb has a 32% chance of beating North Florida.
100.Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois.
Northern Illinois (205) will beat Miami (OH) (296) by 8.0 at home. Miami (OH) has a 17% chance of beating Northern Illinois.
101.Campbell at Winthrop.
Winthrop (229) will beat Campbell (301) by 7.6 at home. Campbell has a 18% chance of beating Winthrop.
102.Portland State at Idaho State.
Portland State (272) will beat Idaho State (315) by 0.0 on the road. Idaho State has a 50% chance of beating Portland State.
103.Texas A&M Corpus Christi at New Orleans.
New Orleans (319) will beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi (288) by 0.4 at home. Texas A&M Corpus Christi has a 48% chance of beating New Orleans.
104.Lamar at Houston Baptist.
Houston Baptist (321) will beat Lamar (295) by 0.5 at home. Lamar has a 48% chance of beating Houston Baptist.
105.Murray State at SIU Edwardsville.
Murray State (73) will beat SIU Edwardsville (303) by 11.2 on the road. SIU Edwardsville has a 10% chance of beating Murray State.
106.Delaware at Elon.
Elon (219) will beat Delaware (307) by 8.6 at home. Delaware has a 15% chance of beating Elon.
107.North Dakota at Eastern Washington.
Eastern Washington (113) will beat North Dakota (300) by 14.7 at home. North Dakota has a 5% chance of beating Eastern Washington.
108.Southern Miss at North Texas.
North Texas (245) will beat Southern Miss (314) by 7.9 at home. Southern Miss has a 17% chance of beating North Texas.
109.Loyola (MD) at Colgate.
Colgate (170) will beat Loyola (MD) (306) by 10.8 at home. Loyola (MD) has a 10% chance of beating Colgate.
110.Morehead State at Jacksonville State.
Morehead State (183) will beat Jacksonville State (309) by 4.2 on the road. Jacksonville State has a 30% chance of beating Morehead State.
111.Norfolk State at South Carolina State.
Norfolk State (175) will beat South Carolina State (310) by 4.7 on the road. South Carolina State has a 28% chance of beating Norfolk State.
112.Northern Arizona at Montana State.
Northern Arizona (212) will beat Montana State (316) by 3.4 on the road. Montana State has a 33% chance of beating Northern Arizona.
113.North Carolina Greensboro at Chattanooga.
Chattanooga (171) will beat North Carolina Greensboro (313) by 11.2 at home. North Carolina Greensboro has a 10% chance of beating Chattanooga.
114.Austin Peay at Eastern Illinois.
Eastern Illinois (166) will beat Austin Peay (312) by 11.8 at home. Austin Peay has a 9% chance of beating Eastern Illinois.
115.Utah Valley at New Mexico State.
New Mexico State (114) will beat Utah Valley (317) by 16.2 at home. Utah Valley has a 4% chance of beating New Mexico State.
116.Delaware State at North Carolina A&T.
Delaware State (277) will beat North Carolina A&T (329) by 2.0 on the road. North Carolina A&T has a 40% chance of beating Delaware State.
117.Nicholls at Central Arkansas.
Central Arkansas (348) will beat Nicholls (347) by 0.7 at home. Nicholls has a 46% chance of beating Central Arkansas.
118.Hampton at Savannah State.
Hampton (305) will beat Savannah State (334) by 1.4 on the road. Savannah State has a 43% chance of beating Hampton.
119.Grand Canyon at Texas Pan American.
Grand Canyon (271) will beat Texas Pan American (330) by 2.6 on the road. Texas Pan American has a 37% chance of beating Grand Canyon.
120.Maryland Eastern Shore at Bethune-Cookman.
Maryland Eastern Shore (232) will beat Bethune-Cookman (326) by 4.2 on the road. Bethune-Cookman has a 30% chance of beating Maryland Eastern Shore.
121.Incarnate Word at Abilene Christian.
Incarnate Word (187) will beat Abilene Christian (324) by 6.1 on the road. Abilene Christian has a 23% chance of beating Incarnate Word.
122.Southern Utah at Montana.
Montana (188) will beat Southern Utah (325) by 12.4 at home. Southern Utah has a 8% chance of beating Montana.
123.CSU Bakersfield at Chicago State.
CSU Bakersfield (263) will beat Chicago State (333) by 3.8 on the road. Chicago State has a 32% chance of beating CSU Bakersfield.
124.Wagner at Central Connecticut State.
Wagner (311) will beat Central Connecticut State (341) by 2.4 on the road. Central Connecticut State has a 38% chance of beating Wagner.
125.Florida Gulf Coast at Kennesaw State.
Florida Gulf Coast (148) will beat Kennesaw State (332) by 9.9 on the road. Kennesaw State has a 12% chance of beating Florida Gulf Coast.
126.Southern at Alabama A&M.
Southern (243) will beat Alabama A&M (337) by 5.9 on the road. Alabama A&M has a 23% chance of beating Southern.
127.Coppin State at North Carolina Central.
North Carolina Central (125) will beat Coppin State (340) by 19.7 at home. Coppin State has a 2% chance of beating North Carolina Central.
128.Texas Southern at Arkansas Pine Bluff.
Texas Southern (167) will beat Arkansas Pine Bluff (335) by 9.4 on the road. Arkansas Pine Bluff has a 13% chance of beating Texas Southern.
129.Stetson at South Carolina Upstate.
South Carolina Upstate (154) will beat Stetson (336) by 16.4 at home. Stetson has a 4% chance of beating South Carolina Upstate.
130.Liberty at Radford.
Radford (203) will beat Liberty (338) by 14.1 at home. Liberty has a 6% chance of beating Radford.
131.Jacksonville at Northern Kentucky.
Northern Kentucky (278) will beat Jacksonville (344) by 12.5 at home. Jacksonville has a 8% chance of beating Northern Kentucky.
132.Presbyterian at Coastal Carolina.
Coastal Carolina (142) will beat Presbyterian (345) by 20.4 at home. Presbyterian has a 2% chance of beating Coastal Carolina.
133.Alcorn State at Alabama State.
Alabama State (289) will beat Alcorn State (346) by 12.6 at home. Alcorn State has a 7% chance of beating Alabama State.
134.Jackson State at Grambling State.
Jackson State (318) will beat Grambling State (349) by 8.1 on the road. Grambling State has a 17% chance of beating Jackson State.
135.Prairie View A&M at Mississippi Valley State.
Prairie View A&M (299) will beat Mississippi Valley State (350) by 10.2 on the road. Mississippi Valley State has a 12% chance of beating Prairie View A&M.
136.Howard at Florida A&M.
Howard (297) will beat Florida A&M (351) by 10.9 on the road. Florida A&M has a 10% chance of beating Howard.
National Basketball Association
Games on Saturday, January 24, 2015.
1. Washington at Portland.
Portland (3) will beat Washington (16) by 6.6 at home. Washington has a 28% chance of beating Portland.
2. Detroit at Milwaukee.
Milwaukee (14) will beat Detroit (18) by 5.4 at home. Detroit has a 32% chance of beating Milwaukee.
3. Brooklyn at Utah.
Utah (21) will beat Brooklyn (25) by 3.9 at home. Brooklyn has a 36% chance of beating Utah.
4. New York at Charlotte.
Charlotte (22) will beat New York (28) by 7.5 at home. New York has a 26% chance of beating Charlotte.
5. Philadelphia at Memphis.
Memphis (4) will beat Philadelphia (30) by 16.6 at home. Philadelphia has a 9% chance of beating Memphis.
These predictions are based on the team rankings, which take the margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule. The number in parenthesis next to each team gives its rank.
The predictions include a uniform constant for home field advantage. For more details, click here.
In addition, games are ranked by the quality of the teams and closeness the expected outcome. Think of this as a viewer’s guide. The larger the number in parenthesis next to the game, the more likely you’ll want to watch.