Predictions

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Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the xFIP for each starting pitcher, with innings pitched if you should worry about small sample size.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank. Win probabilities are too high for Oakland but too low for Tampa Bay.

Games on Wednesday, August 20, 2014.

Atlanta (Alex Wood, 3.37) at Pittsburgh (Gerrit Cole, 3.57, 85.2 IP).
Pittsburgh (17) has a 50.2 chance to beat Atlanta (13).

Arizona (Trevor Cahill, 3.67, 77.0 IP) at Washington (Tanner Roark, 3.77).
Washington (5) has a 67.0 chance to beat Arizona (30).

Cincinnati (Johnny Cueto, 3.14) at St. Louis (Lance Lynn, 3.71).
Cincinnati (14) has a 52.2 chance to beat St. Louis (16).

San Francisco (Jake Peavy, 4.37) at Chicago Cubs (Edwin Jackson, 4.02).
Chicago Cubs (26) has a 50.2 chance to beat San Francisco (15).

San Diego (Eric Stults, 4.26) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Roberto Hernandez, 4.52).
Los Angeles Dodgers (10) has a 55.5 chance to beat San Diego (20).

Houston (Scott Feldman, 4.58) at New York Yankees (Michael Pineda, 3.99, 24.2 IP).
New York Yankees (18) has a 60.1 chance to beat Houston (25).

Detroit (Rick Porcello, 3.70) at Tampa Bay (Jake Odorizzi, 3.60).
Tampa Bay (8) has a 52.4 chance to beat Detroit (6).

Los Angeles Angels (Garrett Richards, 3.14) at Boston (Clay Buchholz, 4.21).
Los Angeles Angels (3) has a 64.6 chance to beat Boston (22).

Cleveland (T.J. House, 3.48, 61.0 IP) at Minnesota (Ricky Nolasco, 4.16).
Cleveland (9) has a 55.7 chance to beat Minnesota (19).

Baltimore (Wei-Yin Chen, 3.66) at Chicago White Sox (Hector Noesi, 4.46).
Baltimore (4) has a 62.5 chance to beat Chicago White Sox (24).

Texas (Nick Martinez, 5.44) at Miami (Nathan Eovaldi, 3.88).
Miami (23) has a 68.0 chance to beat Texas (28).

Seattle (James Paxton, 2.62, 28.2 IP) at Philadelphia (Cole Hamels, 3.23).
Seattle (2) has a 67.7 chance to beat Philadelphia (27).

Toronto (R.A. Dickey, 4.07) at Milwaukee (Jimmy Nelson, 3.88, 42.0 IP).
Milwaukee (11) has a 54.8 chance to beat Toronto (12).

New York Mets (Zack Wheeler, 3.53) at Oakland (Jeff Samardzija, 3.33).
Oakland (1) has a 70.1 chance to beat New York Mets (21).

Kansas City (Danny Duffy, 4.54) at Colorado (Jorge de la Rosa, 4.02).
Kansas City (7) has a 54.8 chance to beat Colorado (29).

Brief Summary

These predictions are based on the team rankings, which take the margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule. The number in parenthesis next to each team gives its rank.

The predictions include a uniform constant for home field advantage. For more details, click here.

In addition, games are ranked by the quality of the teams and closeness the expected outcome. Think of this as a viewer’s guide. The larger the number in parenthesis next to the game, the more likely you’ll want to watch.

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