Hi, my name is Ed Feng, and I use data and analytics to better predict sporting events like the NCAA tourney. While football is my primary focus, I’ve also written a book on how to win your pool.
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College Basketball, Sweet 16
1. Wichita State versus Notre Dame at a neutral site.
Notre Dame (9) will beat Wichita State (15) by 1.0 at a neutral site. Wichita State has a 45% chance of beating Notre Dame.
2. Oklahoma versus Michigan State at a neutral site.
Oklahoma (11) will beat Michigan State (17) by 1.5 at a neutral site. Michigan State has a 43% chance of beating Oklahoma.
3. North Carolina State versus Louisville at a neutral site.
Louisville (16) will beat North Carolina State (23) by 1.6 at a neutral site. North Carolina State has a 42% chance of beating Louisville.
4. Duke versus Utah at a neutral site.
Duke (3) will beat Utah (8) by 4.6 at a neutral site. Utah has a 29% chance of beating Duke.
5. North Carolina versus Wisconsin at a neutral site.
Wisconsin (4) will beat North Carolina (12) by 4.7 at a neutral site. North Carolina has a 28% chance of beating Wisconsin.
6. Arizona versus Xavier at a neutral site.
Arizona (2) will beat Xavier (18) by 8.0 at a neutral site. Xavier has a 17% chance of beating Arizona.
7. West Virginia versus Kentucky at a neutral site.
Kentucky (1) will beat West Virginia (24) by 11.0 at a neutral site. West Virginia has a 10% chance of beating Kentucky.
8. UCLA versus Gonzaga at a neutral site.
Gonzaga (6) will beat UCLA (46) by 9.8 at a neutral site. UCLA has a 12% chance of beating Gonzaga.
National Basketball Association
Games on Thursday, March 26, 2015.
1. Indiana at Milwaukee.
Milwaukee (17) will beat Indiana (18) by 3.7 at home. Indiana has a 37% chance of beating Milwaukee.
These predictions are based on the team rankings, which take the margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule. The number in parenthesis next to each team gives its rank.
The predictions include a uniform constant for home field advantage. For more details, click here.
In addition, games are ranked by the quality of the teams and closeness the expected outcome. Think of this as a viewer’s guide. The larger the number in parenthesis next to the game, the more likely you’ll want to watch.