Predictions

You’re way smarter than the average sports fan.

It’s 2014, and you know analytics is necessary tool in predicting the outcomes of games and events such as the NCAA tournament.

My name is Ed Feng, and I developed a ranking algorithm for teams based on my Ph.D. research at Stanford. Since 2005, the higher ranked team has won 62.3% of college football bowl games (187-113).

I contribute college football content to Grantland, and my numbers have appeared in Sports Illustrated, Deadspin, Five Thirty Eight and Business Week.

Here, you’ll find predictions based on my team rankings.

The top 5 killer articles in football analytics

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College Football, Week 9

1. USC at Utah.
Utah (21) will beat USC (20) by 2.2 at home. USC has a 43% chance of beating Utah.

2. Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh (44) will beat Georgia Tech (41) by 1.9 at home. Georgia Tech has a 44% chance of beating Pittsburgh.

3. Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech (30) will beat Miami (FL) (39) by 5.8 at home. Miami (FL) has a 33% chance of beating Virginia Tech.

4. Maryland at Wisconsin.
Wisconsin (37) will beat Maryland (49) by 5.5 at home. Maryland has a 34% chance of beating Wisconsin.

5. Brigham Young at Boise State.
Boise State (38) will beat Brigham Young (54) by 6.3 at home. Brigham Young has a 32% chance of beating Boise State.

6. UAB at Arkansas.
Arkansas (22) will beat UAB (40) by 8.1 at home. UAB has a 27% chance of beating Arkansas.

7. Arizona State at Washington.
Arizona State (28) will beat Washington (51) by 2.5 on the road. Washington has a 43% chance of beating Arizona State.

8. West Virginia at Oklahoma State.
West Virginia (12) will beat Oklahoma State (43) by 6.6 on the road. Oklahoma State has a 31% chance of beating West Virginia.

9. Arizona at Washington State.
Arizona (15) will beat Washington State (53) by 6.8 on the road. Washington State has a 31% chance of beating Arizona.

10. North Carolina at Virginia.
Virginia (46) will beat North Carolina (71) by 9.5 at home. North Carolina has a 24% chance of beating Virginia.

11. Oregon State at Stanford.
Stanford (34) will beat Oregon State (67) by 12.2 at home. Oregon State has a 19% chance of beating Stanford.

12. Mississippi at LSU.
Mississippi (1) will beat LSU (14) by 12.4 on the road. LSU has a 18% chance of beating Mississippi.

13. Alabama at Tennessee.
Alabama (4) will beat Tennessee (27) by 12.0 on the road. Tennessee has a 19% chance of beating Alabama.

14. Oregon at California.
Oregon (9) will beat California (48) by 11.3 on the road. California has a 20% chance of beating Oregon.

15. South Carolina at Auburn.
Auburn (3) will beat South Carolina (33) by 19.5 at home. South Carolina has a 9% chance of beating Auburn.

16. Texas at Kansas State.
Kansas State (10) will beat Texas (52) by 17.6 at home. Texas has a 11% chance of beating Kansas State.

17. San Jose State at Navy.
Navy (100) will beat San Jose State (111) by 4.3 at home. San Jose State has a 37% chance of beating Navy.

18. Ohio State at Penn State.
Ohio State (23) will beat Penn State (73) by 10.3 on the road. Penn State has a 23% chance of beating Ohio State.

19. South Florida at Cincinnati.
Cincinnati (93) will beat South Florida (112) by 5.5 at home. South Florida has a 34% chance of beating Cincinnati.

20. Akron at Ball State.
Akron (77) will beat Ball State (106) by 3.0 on the road. Ball State has a 41% chance of beating Akron.

21. Temple at UCF.
UCF (64) will beat Temple (97) by 11.0 at home. Temple has a 21% chance of beating UCF.

22. Mississippi State at Kentucky.
Mississippi State (2) will beat Kentucky (60) by 23.8 on the road. Kentucky has a 5% chance of beating Mississippi State.

23. Syracuse at Clemson.
Clemson (29) will beat Syracuse (85) by 18.0 at home. Syracuse has a 10% chance of beating Clemson.

24. Rutgers at Nebraska.
Nebraska (13) will beat Rutgers (82) by 20.8 at home. Rutgers has a 8% chance of beating Nebraska.

25. Texas Tech at TCU.
TCU (5) will beat Texas Tech (74) by 27.3 at home. Texas Tech has a 4% chance of beating TCU.

26. Minnesota at Illinois.
Minnesota (55) will beat Illinois (95) by 8.3 on the road. Illinois has a 27% chance of beating Minnesota.

27. UCLA at Colorado.
UCLA (17) will beat Colorado (89) by 15.7 on the road. Colorado has a 13% chance of beating UCLA.

28. Michigan at Michigan State.
Michigan State (16) will beat Michigan (90) by 22.4 at home. Michigan has a 6% chance of beating Michigan State.

29. Ohio at Western Michigan.
Western Michigan (87) will beat Ohio (122) by 8.6 at home. Ohio has a 26% chance of beating Western Michigan.

30. Nevada at Hawaii.
Nevada (47) will beat Hawaii (103) by 10.6 on the road. Hawaii has a 22% chance of beating Nevada.

31. Florida Atlantic at Marshall.
Marshall (6) will beat Florida Atlantic (114) by 34.4 at home. Florida Atlantic has a 2% chance of beating Marshall.

32. UTEP at UTSA.
UTSA (72) will beat UTEP (123) by 12.6 at home. UTEP has a 18% chance of beating UTSA.

33. Boston College at Wake Forest.
Boston College (45) will beat Wake Forest (117) by 12.9 on the road. Wake Forest has a 17% chance of beating Boston College.

34. Vanderbilt at Missouri.
Missouri (32) will beat Vanderbilt (118) by 22.6 at home. Vanderbilt has a 6% chance of beating Missouri.

35. Wyoming at Colorado State.
Colorado State (42) will beat Wyoming (125) by 21.2 at home. Wyoming has a 7% chance of beating Colorado State.

36. Arkansas State at Louisiana Lafayette.
Arkansas State (66) will beat Louisiana Lafayette (132) by 10.3 on the road. Louisiana Lafayette has a 23% chance of beating Arkansas State.

37. Louisiana Tech at Southern Miss.
Louisiana Tech (69) will beat Southern Miss (133) by 10.2 on the road. Southern Miss has a 23% chance of beating Louisiana Tech.

38. Massachusetts at Toledo.
Toledo (88) will beat Massachusetts (140) by 12.6 at home. Massachusetts has a 18% chance of beating Toledo.

39. Old Dominion at Western Kentucky.
Western Kentucky (76) will beat Old Dominion (138) by 15.2 at home. Old Dominion has a 14% chance of beating Western Kentucky.

40. Connecticut at East Carolina.
East Carolina (26) will beat Connecticut (153) by 32.4 at home. Connecticut has a 2% chance of beating East Carolina.

41. Central Michigan at Buffalo.
Central Michigan (92) will beat Buffalo (147) by 7.9 on the road. Buffalo has a 28% chance of beating Central Michigan.

42. Texas State at Louisiana Monroe.
Louisiana Monroe (144) will beat Texas State (162) by 7.9 at home. Texas State has a 28% chance of beating Louisiana Monroe.

43. Georgia Southern at Georgia State.
Georgia Southern (59) will beat Georgia State (154) by 18.8 on the road. Georgia State has a 9% chance of beating Georgia Southern.

44. Memphis at SMU.
Memphis (31) will beat SMU (190) by 31.0 on the road. SMU has a 2% chance of beating Memphis.

45. Kent State at Miami (OH).
Miami (OH) (116) will beat Kent State (160) by 12.8 at home. Kent State has a 18% chance of beating Miami (OH).

46. UNLV at Utah State.
Utah State (58) will beat UNLV (178) by 29.4 at home. UNLV has a 3% chance of beating Utah State.

47. Troy at South Alabama.
South Alabama (113) will beat Troy (166) by 14.7 at home. Troy has a 15% chance of beating South Alabama.

48. North Texas at Rice.
Rice (109) will beat North Texas (173) by 16.1 at home. North Texas has a 13% chance of beating Rice.

49. Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan.
Northern Illinois (94) will beat Eastern Michigan (199) by 18.1 on the road. Eastern Michigan has a 10% chance of beating Northern Illinois.

Introducing a new prediction service for college football

The prediction service offers picks and math predictions for all games. To learn more and check out our record, click here.

National Football League, Week 8

1. San Diego at Denver.
Denver (1) will beat San Diego (4) by 7.5 at home. San Diego has a 30% chance of beating Denver.

2. Philadelphia at Arizona.
Arizona (9) will beat Philadelphia (5) by 0.6 at home. Philadelphia has a 48% chance of beating Arizona.

3. Baltimore at Cincinnati.
Baltimore (10) will beat Cincinnati (15) by 1.3 on the road. Cincinnati has a 46% chance of beating Baltimore.

4. Houston at Tennessee.
Tennessee (19) will beat Houston (14) by 0.9 at home. Houston has a 48% chance of beating Tennessee.

5. Chicago at New England.
New England (12) will beat Chicago (17) by 5.3 at home. Chicago has a 36% chance of beating New England.

6. Green Bay at New Orleans.
Green Bay (11) will beat New Orleans (22) by 1.6 on the road. New Orleans has a 46% chance of beating Green Bay.

7. St. Louis at Kansas City.
Kansas City (6) will beat St. Louis (18) by 9.3 at home. St. Louis has a 26% chance of beating Kansas City.

8. Washington at Dallas.
Dallas (8) will beat Washington (23) by 9.0 at home. Washington has a 27% chance of beating Dallas.

9. Buffalo at New York Jets.
Buffalo (20) will beat New York Jets (27) by 0.3 on the road. New York Jets has a 49% chance of beating Buffalo.

10. Indianapolis at Pittsburgh.
Indianapolis (2) will beat Pittsburgh (25) by 7.7 on the road. Pittsburgh has a 30% chance of beating Indianapolis.

11. Seattle at Carolina.
Seattle (3) will beat Carolina (26) by 7.3 on the road. Carolina has a 31% chance of beating Seattle.

12. Miami at Jacksonville.
Miami (16) will beat Jacksonville (29) by 2.2 on the road. Jacksonville has a 44% chance of beating Miami.

13. Oakland at Cleveland.
Cleveland (24) will beat Oakland (30) by 7.0 at home. Oakland has a 31% chance of beating Cleveland.

14. Minnesota at Tampa Bay.
Minnesota (28) will beat Tampa Bay (32) by 0.8 on the road. Tampa Bay has a 48% chance of beating Minnesota.

15. Detroit at Atlanta.
Detroit (13) will beat Atlanta (31) by 5.2 on the road. Atlanta has a 36% chance of beating Detroit.

Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the xFIP for each starting pitcher, with innings pitched if you should worry about small sample size.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.

Game on Wednesday, October 22.

San Francisco (Jake Peavy, 4.18) at Kansas City (Yordano Ventura, 3.74).
Kansas City (13) has a 55.9 chance to beat San Francisco (11).

Brief Summary

These predictions are based on the team rankings, which take the margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule. The number in parenthesis next to each team gives its rank.

The predictions include a uniform constant for home field advantage. For more details, click here.

In addition, games are ranked by the quality of the teams and closeness the expected outcome. Think of this as a viewer’s guide. The larger the number in parenthesis next to the game, the more likely you’ll want to watch.

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