Cluster Luck

In baseball, teams have little control over the clustering of hits. Hence, we can use run creation formulas to estimate a team’s luck in clustering hits.

This table (updated daily) shows cluster luck for MLB teams in units of runs. A positive number implies good luck in all cases, e.g. positive cluster luck on defense implies a team allowed fewer runs than expected.

Rnk Team Total Off Def
1 Texas 42.5 18.8 23.6
2 San Diego 20.9 5.5 15.3
3 Chicago Cubs 20.4 18.4 2.0
4 Pittsburgh 15.0 -8.7 23.7
5 Milwaukee 14.6 -9.9 24.4
6 Los Angeles Angels 11.4 4.4 7.1
7 Chicago White Sox 10.2 -0.8 11.0
8 Cleveland 9.2 8.1 1.1
9 Seattle 8.4 2.4 6.0
10 Cincinnati 7.0 16.7 -9.7
11 Kansas City 1.7 -9.8 11.5
12 Oakland 1.6 1.9 -0.3
13 Washington 1.2 -9.6 10.9
14 San Francisco -1.6 -11.5 9.8
15 New York Yankees -1.7 1.4 -3.1
16 Minnesota -4.0 -12.5 8.5
17 Atlanta -5.7 0.1 -5.8
18 Los Angeles Dodgers -6.9 12.5 -19.4
19 Baltimore -7.5 -19.3 11.8
20 Houston -7.7 -14.4 6.7
21 Philadelphia -8.2 -13.0 4.8
22 New York Mets -8.6 -21.9 13.3
23 St. Louis -8.8 11.4 -20.1
24 Boston -9.3 -2.6 -6.7
25 Detroit -9.6 -9.5 -0.1
26 Toronto -12.9 -11.8 -1.1
27 Colorado -13.5 -4.5 -9.0
28 Tampa Bay -13.8 -12.6 -1.2
29 Arizona -14.4 -20.9 6.5
30 Miami -27.0 -31.6 4.6