College football playoff probabilities after week 12, 2016

screen-shot-2016-11-23-at-10-33-52-amOver at Bleacher Report, I posted my odds for each team to make the college football playoff. This week’s article looks at:

  • Michigan at Ohio State, a critical game in the playoff picture.
  • With 4 teams in the top 7, the chance that the Big Ten gets two teams.
  • Apple Cup between Washington and Washington State.
  • The USC dilemma, since the Trojans are generating much debate.

To read the article on Bleacher Report, click here.

Does Aaron Rodgers draw more pass interference penalties?

On my recent appearance on Beating the Book, we were discussing Aaron Rodgers and why he wasn’t playing as well. Host Gill Alexander thew out the idea that Rodgers’ performance might not seem as bad if we included drawn pass interference penalties.

I dug into the 2016 play by play data through week 10 to find out. Rodgers has drawn 7 pass interference penalties, just above the team average of 6.

Drawing pass interference penalties doesn’t seem like a skill, as Drew Brees has 3 while Blake Bortles and Ryan Fitzpatrick have 12 and 11 respectively.

Rodgers does seem to draw pass interference penalties deep down the field. Here are the yardage gains on these penalties: 44, 18, 30, 40, 13, 28, 66. If you include these plays, it would help a pass offense that has averaged 5.8 yards per attempt, 26th in the NFL.

Here are the full results for defensive pass interference penalties for all teams during the first 10 weeks of the 2016 season.

  • Arizona, 7.
  • Atlanta, 6.
  • Baltimore, 6.
  • Buffalo, 4.
  • Carolina, 6.
  • Chicago, 4.
  • Cincinnati, 9.
  • Cleveland, 6.
  • Dallas, 2.
  • Denver, 9.
  • Detroit, 9.
  • Green Bay, 7.
  • Houston, 6.
  • Indianapolis, 5.
  • Jacksonville, 12.
  • Kansas City, 1.
  • Los Angeles, 5.
  • Miami, 2.
  • Minnesota, 4.
  • New England, 5.
  • New Orleans, 3.
  • New York Giants, 7.
  • New York Jets, 11.
  • Oakland, 12.
  • Philadelphia, 3.
  • Pittsburgh, 5.
  • San Diego, 8.
  • San Francisco, 3.
  • Seattle, 6.
  • Tampa Bay, 7.
  • Tennessee, 9.
  • Washington, 6.

Podcast: The top 3 college football and NFL stories for Nov 17-20

thefootballanalyticsshow_cover_landscapeOn the show this week, I discuss the following.

  • What pocket Aces in poker has to do with college football
  • Why it drives me crazy when people say “failed election predictions,” and what this has to do with college football
  • What it takes to be a savvy content consumer in 2016
  • Who Pro Football Focus was talking about when they said “He needs to improve his location, in particular, struggling to beat tight coverage at every level of the defense” before the 2016 NFL draft. Hint, he’s killing it in the NFL right now.
  • My doubts about the college football playoff probabilities
  • How Louisville makes the college football playoff, more thoughts on that here

To listen, click on the play button.

To download the podcast, click here.

How Louisville gets into the college football playoff

screen-shot-2016-11-17-at-11-02-33-amAfter a week of utter chaos, the committee told us they still like Michigan and Clemson over Louisville.

This isn’t what my algorithm expects from the committee. Usually, teams move down when they lose. Michigan lost in stunning fashion to Iowa but stayed at 3rd. Clemson had a similar loss to Pittsburgh but only dropped from 2nd to 4th.

The loser in these decisions is Louisville at 5th. With the strange behavior of this committee, I’m starting to believe that my 55% for Louisville to make the playoff is too high.

But maybe not. Louisville has to hope that Ohio State wins the Big Ten, which does two things.

  • Eliminates Michigan, since Ohio State plays them next week.
  • Eliminates Ohio State as another potential one loss non-conference champions looking to get into the playoff.

Then Louisville needs a two or three loss team to win the Pac-12 (Colorado, Utah, USC still in contention for the South), which would eliminate Washington from contention. This all assumes that Clemson wins the ACC Atlantic, denying Louisville the chance to win the ACC.

Still, their likelihood is probably less than 55%.

To check out all of my playoff odds at Bleacher Report, click here.

Podcast: The top 3 stories in college football and the NFL for Nov 10-13

In this week’s podcast, which I’ve named The Football Analytics Show, I discuss the following.

  • The most difficult type of college football game to predict.
  • The sneaky truth about why Washington could lose to USC.
  • The team no one is talking about for the college football playoff.
  • The NFL QB injury that just might help the team.
  • The real story behind Carolina’s fall this season.

To listen, click on the play button below.