NFL rankings after week 4, 2016

nfl2016_w4Yikes, that’s not good.

I’m a little embarrassed Green Bay tops my public NFL rankings after week 4. The Packers haven’t looked good this year.

But it shows you the noise in NFL data after only four weeks. These rankings use both my preseason numbers as well as team rankings based on margin of victory adjusted for strength of schedule.

Green Bay ranks 3rd in these team rankings, and it’s better than of the four teams ahead of them this preseason. And the Packers might get their act together.

However, I don’t think Green Bay is the best team in the NFL. My member rankings use data from other sources and come up with a more reasonable rank of 9th for Green Bay.

These public rankings will get better over the coming weeks. Stay tuned.

To check out the NFL rankings, click here.

Mark Richt, Miami and college football rankings after week 5, 2016

ncaaf2016_w6We’re five weeks into the college football, and it’s inevitable to overrate some teams. Four or five games is a small sample size.

Ohio State is one heck of a football program, but they’re most likely playing above their true skill right now. Remember, they returned only 6 starters after losing tons of talent to the NFL.

I’m starting to believe in Washington, who checks in at 4th this week. But their 44-6 win over Stanford is an overestimate of their true skill, as the Cardinal played their worst game since the Walt Harris era.

But how about Miami? The Hurricanes under new coach Mark Richt crack the top 10 this week.

Are they overrated? Maybe, but Miami always has talent with their location in one college football’s most fertile recruiting areas.

In addition, I’ve been working on new rankings based on closing point spreads from the markets. Miami ranks 23rd, which suggests the markets like this team as well.

And this Richt guy can coach. If his quarterback spikes the ball against Alabama in the 2012 SEC championship game, he might have won a national title over Notre Dame.

Miami might be a good football team this year. We’ll see as they play Florida State this week.

To check out the most current college football rankings, click here.

College football playoff odds after week 5, 2016

screen-shot-2016-10-03-at-4-27-56-pmOver at Bleacher Report, I gave my college football playoff odds based on 10,000 simulations.

This week, Clemson rises with their big win over Louisville. The Tigers got untracked on offense in a big way.

However, Louisville is far from dead. I argue why their 43% chance of making the playoff makes complete sense.

To check my article, click here.

Les Miles and college football rankings after week 4, 2016

ncaaf2016_w5Careful what you wish for.

LSU fired Les Miles on Sunday. The Mad Hatter won 10 games a year in college football’s toughest division during his tenure as coach. The law of large numbers thinks that’s an impressive result.

Sure, LSU started 2-2 this season. Yes, the offense has looked awful, not just this year but even in 2011 in which LSU made the BCS title game.

But good coaches don’t grow on trees, and there’s no guarantee LSU will find a new coach that can keep the program at it’s current level.

Georgia fired Mark Richt last year, a coach that won 145 games in 15 years. The Bulldogs are struggling this year. They are 43rd in my most recent rankings after a 45-14 beat down at Ole Miss.

Richt landed on his feet at Miami, his alma mater. The Hurricanes destroyed a good Appalachian State team on the road this year and have risen to 9th in my current rankings.

And what about Tennessee? The program still hasn’t recovered after firing national title winning coach Phil Fulmer in 2008.

Careful what you wish for.

To see the full college football rankings after 4 weeks of college football, click here.

College football playoff odds after week 4, 2016

screen-shot-2016-09-28-at-9-42-10-amOver at Bleacher Report, I updated my playoff odds again. We intend this piece to be forward looking, and it’s most useful in my evaluation of Louisville and Clemson.

As usual, don’t be fooled by small sample size. Louisville has looked amazing on offense, Clemson not so much, but that could change on Saturday night.

To check out the playoff odds for the top teams and my prediction for Louisville at Clemson, click here.

Most weeks, more people read my column on college football playoff odds. However, this week’s column got lost a little bit when Les Miles got fired on Sunday. Not unreasonable.