This is an excerpt from The 2016 College Football Win Totals Report, which has my predictions for all 128 bowl subdivision teams. For more information, click here.
A preseason rank of ninth might seem low to Michigan fans.
The defense returns almost every significant starter from last season. If this unit does not end the season in the top ten by my adjusted yards per play, it would be a disappointment.
There’s also the Jim Harbaugh factor. My preseason model looks at a four year window of team ratings. While this usually gives an accurate assessment of team strength, it will underestimate a team on a rapid rise.
Michigan does have some questions to answer. The quarterback battle will get the headlines, but the offensive line might be even more critical for a team determined to impose its will at the line of scrimmage.
In addition, Michigan had exceptional special teams last season. Jabrill Peppers will still return kicks this season, but special teams coach John Baxter left for USC during the off season.
Michigan will start the season higher than ninth in the preseason AP and Coaches polls. Since these preseason human polls are surprising predictors of team strength, this suggests my predicted win total of 9.4 games might be low.
Get college football win totals for all 128 teams
You can look at my predictions in The 2016 College Football Win Totals Report. Here’s what you get:
- A win total for all 128 bowl subdivision teams.
- The hidden factor that makes accurate preseason college football predictions possible.
- 3 surprising teams based on expected win total.
- Which human polls to trust in making predictions. The answer might surprise you.
You can get this report by signing up for my free email newsletter.
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