Les Miles and college football rankings after week 4, 2016

ncaaf2016_w5Careful what you wish for.

LSU fired Les Miles on Sunday. The Mad Hatter won 10 games a year in college football’s toughest division during his tenure as coach. The law of large numbers thinks that’s an impressive result.

Sure, LSU started 2-2 this season. Yes, the offense has looked awful, not just this year but even in 2011 in which LSU made the BCS title game.

But good coaches don’t grow on trees, and there’s no guarantee LSU will find a new coach that can keep the program at it’s current level.

Georgia fired Mark Richt last year, a coach that won 145 games in 15 years. The Bulldogs are struggling this year. They are 43rd in my most recent rankings after a 45-14 beat down at Ole Miss.

Richt landed on his feet at Miami, his alma mater. The Hurricanes destroyed a good Appalachian State team on the road this year and have risen to 9th in my current rankings.

And what about Tennessee? The program still hasn’t recovered after firing national title winning coach Phil Fulmer in 2008.

Careful what you wish for.

To see the full college football rankings after 4 weeks of college football, click here.

College football playoff odds after week 4, 2016

screen-shot-2016-09-28-at-9-42-10-amOver at Bleacher Report, I updated my playoff odds again. We intend this piece to be forward looking, and it’s most useful in my evaluation of Louisville and Clemson.

As usual, don’t be fooled by small sample size. Louisville has looked amazing on offense, Clemson not so much, but that could change on Saturday night.

To check out the playoff odds for the top teams and my prediction for Louisville at Clemson, click here.

Most weeks, more people read my column on college football playoff odds. However, this week’s column got lost a little bit when Les Miles got fired on Sunday. Not unreasonable.

College football rankings for week 4 of 2016

ncaaf2016_w4Whoa, Louisville. The Cardinals stomped over Florida State by a 63-20 score, a win that propels them from 12th to 3rd in my college football rankings.

I think this is a bit of an overreaction. Louisville has looked fantastic, but if they played Florida State 100 times, they won’t win by 43 or more in each game.

Also, remember Louisville ranked 19th and 23rd in the preseason AP and coaches poll, which are powerful predictors of team strength. They’re clearly better than that. But 3rd in the nation?

I need to see more games to believe that.

As always, you can find the rankings for all college football teams here.

College football playoff probabilities on Bleacher Report after week 3

screen-shot-2016-09-19-at-3-47-34-pmAfter Louisville’s huge win over Florida State, I was worried about how the playoff odds would look for the Cardinals.

I’ve been playing with a new model for team rankings the first few weeks of the season, and they’re like your Grandpa that doesn’t have a cell phone. They don’t react too fast to new data.

But the new model does consider Louisville’s extraordinary performance this season, and they have a 48.8% chance to make the playoff.

The problem was Florida State. Despite the huge loss, the Seminoles still have a 38.8% chance to make the playoff. That seems high, but there’s a good reason.

To check out all my playoff odds on Bleacher Report and the reasons why Florida State still has a better chance at the playoffs than Ohio State, click here.

College football rankings for week 3 of 2016

ncaaf2016_w3Everyone is freaking out over Clemson. How can a national title contender fail to pull away from Troy?

My numbers do fret a bit about the Tigers. However, their rating dropped only a half point from last week. My early season model tends to not overreact to a single game.

Clemson stays at 3rd behind Alabama and Florida State. We might all forget Troy when DeShaun Watson and company get their mojo back later this season.

As always, you can check out the latest, full rankings by clicking here.