College football playoff odds after week 7, 2016

screen-shot-2016-10-18-at-3-44-03-pmOver at Bleacher Report, I wrote about my odds to make the playoff after week 7 of 2016.

Alabama is good. They’re about as close to a lock as you can possibly get half way through the season.

Clemson’s playoff odds drop a bit after almost losing to North Carolina State, although they’re still the ACC favorite.

And does Ohio State have a weakness that Wisconsin showed us? You have to look at the rushing stats.

To check out my playoff odds, click here.

NFL rankings after week 5, 2016

nfl2016_w5It seems particularly hard to do quality early NFL rankings this year.

None of the preseason favorites have looked great. Carolina has regressed from last season. Seattle’s offense got off to a slow start.

The rankings above combine preseason expectation with team rankings based on limited data from the current season. It has Green Bay as a definitive number one.

I disagree. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t look right. Against the Giants, he had all the time in the world to throw, and he faced a secondary missing key starters. Still, the Packers only threw for 5.8 yards per attempt, below the NFL average.

I also calculate rankings for members of my site that use more predictors than the public rankings. These extra predictors are based on pass efficiency (yards per pass attempt, a strong predictor of success) and market data.

Here are the member rankings:

1. Seattle
2. Carolina
3. Arizona
4. Green Bay
5. Denver
6. New England
7. Pittsburgh
8. Minnesota
9. Cincinnati
10. Atlanta

If Carolina and New England swapped places, this would be a pretty solid impression of a messy NFL in 2016.

In addition, these member rankings drive predictions that have gone 58.4% this season against spreads taken from Wednesday each week. This is an unsustainable win rate, but if you’re in an NFL pool, you might want to check out becoming a member of The Power Rank.

To see the most current, full NFL rankings, click here.

The Washington Huskies, and college football rankings after week 6, 2016

ncaaf2016_w7I was wrong about Washington.

I didn’t believe in the Huskies this preseason. They hadn’t beaten anyone of significance last season, and I had doubts about Chris Peterson and a true sophomore quarterback.

In the past two weeks, Washington has dominated Stanford and Oregon by a combined 114-27 score. With this complete annihilation of the two teams that have won every Pac-12 title since 2009, the Huskies are the clear playoff favorite from the conference.

Let’s not bring up the inherent variance in these two lopsided wins.

Let’s not discuss the possibility that Stanford and Oregon both suck this season.

Let’s acknowledge Washington’s arrival on the college football season. They are 4th in the latest college football rankings from The Power Rank.

To see the full updated rankings, click here.

College football playoff probabilities after week 6, 2016

screen-shot-2016-10-11-at-4-27-11-pmOver at Bleacher Report, I posted my latest odds for each team to make the College Football Playoff.

Washington is most likely for real, Clemson started beating up on inferior competition like they should, and Michigan’s defense dominated Rutgers.

To check out all the odds and read the article, click here.

NFL rankings after week 4, 2016

nfl2016_w4Yikes, that’s not good.

I’m a little embarrassed Green Bay tops my public NFL rankings after week 4. The Packers haven’t looked good this year.

But it shows you the noise in NFL data after only four weeks. These rankings use both my preseason numbers as well as team rankings based on margin of victory adjusted for strength of schedule.

Green Bay ranks 3rd in these team rankings, and it’s better than of the four teams ahead of them this preseason. And the Packers might get their act together.

However, I don’t think Green Bay is the best team in the NFL. My member rankings use data from other sources and come up with a more reasonable rank of 9th for Green Bay.

These public rankings will get better over the coming weeks. Stay tuned.

To check out the NFL rankings, click here.